Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Gael_Force]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Perhaps you would care to explain why you consider my assessment of the ext. ecm is rose tinted because as far as I can see it's a perfectly fair reflection of the output. I must say I find it rather amusing that my posts get continuously rubbished for being 'allegedly biased', something I strongly refute, when plenty of outrageous cold nonsense passes without comment in the other thread. But the that's what the cold mafia wont to read.

I wasn't referring to you wearing the specs, instead your realistic assessment was being rubbished by others who wore them.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Gael_Force said:

I wasn't referring to you wearing the specs, instead your realistic assessment was being rubbished by others who wore them.

My humblest apologies.

[PLANET THANET]

I dont know if anyone is interested and to remind us what snow is like, more4 are showing for the umpteenth time "the year britain froze" at 8pm tonight 

[knocker]

 Tweet from MV. If you look at the individual days the HP to the east relaxes a fair bit

First Week of January, extreme winter warmth should relax but classic El Nino pattern (++EPO) takes over

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice

 

Edited December 20, 2015 by knocker

[Gord]

Well at least mother nature has given us something to look at today with some eye opening cloud structures rolling through. So something different for today at least.

A lot of talk of how this month is remarkable but in completely the opposite way to December 2010.

I hope the rest of this winter follows an opposite to winter 2010/2011 pattern!

Edited December 20, 2015 by Gord

[knocker]

Some of these sat. animations are brilliant

mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animw.html …

[Don]

Well, I wouldn't normally write off winter until the end of January (if the outlook was still grim then).  However, this year is something different in my opinion and with many long range models backing away from a cold mid to late winter period, I'm very close to writing winter 2015/16 at this early stage.  Forget 74/75, 88/89, 97/98 and 13/14, 2015/16 could be the Daddy of them all for warmth........  Needless to say, I hope I'm very, very wrong!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, I wouldn't normally write off winter until the end of January (if the outlook was still grim then).  However, this year is something different in my opinion and with many long range models backing away from a cold mid to late winter period, I'm very close to writing winter 2015/16 at this early stage.  Forget 74/75, 88/89, 97/98 and 13/14, 2015/16 could be the Daddy of them all for warmth........  Needless to say, I hope I'm very, very wrong!

Which long-range models?  I'm not seeing references to this in the model thread.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, I wouldn't normally write off winter until the end of January (if the outlook was still grim then).  However, this year is something different in my opinion and with many long range models backing away from a cold mid to late winter period, I'm very close to writing winter 2015/16 at this early stage.  Forget 74/75, 88/89, 97/98 and 13/14, 2015/16 could be the Daddy of them all for warmth........  Needless to say, I hope I'm very, very wrong!

 

definitely possible winter won't begin in the South, christ alive cold here now 5.3C, unexpected chill

[Nick L]

A crap few weeks of winter and the melodramatic histrionics begin...

Winter is not over.

[Don]

It was reference to today's video update on Gav's Weather website.

[Froze were the Days]

Totally agree @Don - I see somewhat of a 'relaxing' of the extreme mildness into the New Year but certainly can't see any real cold or severe cold at all this winter (maybe chiefly Pm outbreaks which might bring wintryness to northern hills). I've seen some very strange repetitive synoptics which I thought I wouldn't see in a British winter thanks to this strong el-nino.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Don said:

It was reference to today's video update on Gav's Weather website.

If it's any consolation, Weatherweb.net are seeing the models hinting at a pattern change just into the New Year.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

11 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, I wouldn't normally write off winter until the end of January (if the outlook was still grim then).  However, this year is something different in my opinion and with many long range models backing away from a cold mid to late winter period, I'm very close to writing winter 2015/16 at this early stage.  Forget 74/75, 88/89, 97/98 and 13/14, 2015/16 could be the Daddy of them all for warmth........  Needless to say, I hope I'm very, very wrong!

 

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Totally agree @Don - I see somewhat of a 'relaxing' of the extreme mildness into the New Year but certainly can't see any real cold or severe cold at all this winter (maybe chiefly Pm outbreaks which might bring wintryness to northern hills). I've seen some very strange repetitive synoptics which I thought I wouldn't see in a British winter thanks to this strong el-nino.

I'll hold you two to those statements come late February.  If it does stay very mild all the way through to spring, I'll admit that you were right, but I doubt anyone can predict that far out with any confidence.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

A crap few weeks of winter and the melodramatic histrionics begin...

Winter is not over.

In my experience winter's that start very mild, rarely produce very cold weather later on.  That's not to say I think it's out of the question, just that it's not looking promising.  December 1985 and 1986 were mild (although nothing compared to this month) and did of course go on to provide very cold weather, but these were unusual and occurred a long time ago. Anyway, this is the moans and ramps thread is it not?

[Gord]

And winters that start very cold rarely produce mild weather later...

...hang on a minute.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

In my experience winter's that start very mild, rarely produce very cold weather later on.  That's not to say I think it's out of the question, just that it's not looking promising.  December 1985 and 1986 were mild (although nothing compared to this month) and did of course go on to provide very cold weather, but these were unusual and occurred a long time ago. Anyway, this is the moans and ramps thread is it not?

2009 saw a mild December and it got colder later.  If we really knew what the weather was going to be like 2 - 2 1/2 months hence, the model thread would be redundant.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

If it's any consolation, Weatherweb.net are seeing the models hinting at a pattern change just into the New Year.

Thanks, I will have a look.

4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

I'll hold you two to those statements come late February.  If it does stay very mild all the way through to spring, I'll admit that you were right, but I doubt anyone can predict that far out with any confidence.

Well, I hope come the end of February I will have been proved very wrong!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM on the ball, GFS has thrown an FI wobbly!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ECM on the ball, GFS has thrown an FI wobbly!

Why do you assume that it's the GFS that's incorrect?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Why do you assume that it's the GFS that's incorrect?

GFS just dosen't look right, especially after 300, ECM shows very average late Dec weather, westerlies and nothing super mild or cold

[E100]

6 hours ago, The real Lomond snowstorm said:

Nick, I loved it at first.

It was after a week of ice days and extreme cold.

When it occasionally got above freezing it was fine

To be fair I was living in an old property at the time, unlike now. I also now have winter tyres.

 

I think I will skip the winter tyres and just get myself a halftrack if we get ground frost this year.

Seriously judging by recent weather a boat may be better idea in some places

[Nick L]

34 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS just dosen't look right, especially after 300, ECM shows very average late Dec weather, westerlies and nothing super mild or cold

2m temps on EC are consistently into the teens for the southern half of the UK, so continuing to be really quite mild.

[E100]

I'm not sure how related this is to weather, but ive noticed the North magnetic core moving at an increasing speed towards Russia. 

Also noticed that our weather seems to becoming more tropical, perhaps like japan with different months for rainy seasons.

Just brainstorming. Not suggesting there is any relation between them but interested.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/12/091224-north-pole-magnetic-russia-earth-core.html

Edited December 20, 2015 by E100

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Don said:

In my experience winter's that start very mild, rarely produce very cold weather later on.  That's not to say I think it's out of the question, just that it's not looking promising.  December 1985 and 1986 were mild (although nothing compared to this month) and did of course go on to provide very cold weather, but these were unusual and occurred a long time ago. Anyway, this is the moans and ramps thread is it not?

to a degree over the past 15-20 years this is true (as per a post I made a week ago which somebody repled back about 85/86) - 2011-12 had a cold spell in the south east in the first 10 days or so of February after a relatively mild Dec/Jan 2011 but then became very mild thereafter. I can't recall too many winters that have started mild/very mild and finished cold over the last decade or so.

Usually I wouldn't  say winters over so early (you can never write off a cold spell/snap through Jan/Feb) but this winter is writing a new episode of the likes I've never experienced and I've been detailing winter records since the early 80's.