Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

you turned into me lol, the even larger teapot believer

Absolutely.  I'm convinced that 2010 and 2013 were the result of our previous winter climate (mainly Atlantic-dominated, but changeable and often chilly/cold) fading away to be replaced by a new one - mild, extremely wet and cloudy.

[Nick L]

On what basis is winter being written off by some?

[Nick L]

At this time of year, when the days are shortest, I LOVE cold, frosty, sunny high pressures. It's one of my favourite parts of winter, seeing the sun at a very shallow angle in the sky and frost on the ground. But this revolting season so far (I refuse to call it winter) has deprived me of that. I have no idea what the sunshine stats are, but never mind the warmest December on record, this also has to be up there with the dullest?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

miss them too nick, they are becoming much less frequent as years go on

bitter spell I especially remember, few -10's chucked in, severe frosts, ice days, but mild uppers/no snow

oh and just realised, this was the last day of Atlantic 252, teamtalk started on 3rd boooooooooooooooooooo

Edited December 21, 2015 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Gord]

16 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Absolutely.  I'm convinced that 2010 and 2013 were the result of our previous winter climate (mainly Atlantic-dominated, but changeable and often chilly/cold) fading away to be replaced by a new one - mild, extremely wet and cloudy.

You mean we had a couple of colder winters...just like we have a couple of hotter summers 10 years ago.

 

According to some posts, our climate seems to regenerate like Doctor Who these days!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

20 minutes ago, Nick L said:

On what basis is winter being written off by some?

There was a post the other day in the model discussion thread from someone (can't recall who) arguing that the vortex is in some kind of self-perpetuating state in which it's pretty much invulnerable to anything short of a massive SSW, and that, unless such an SSW appears in the Strat models, the current patternis very unlikely to change.

[Carl46Wrexham]

19 minutes ago, Nick L said:

On what basis is winter being written off by some?

Maybe the fact that the Polar Vortex is glued to Greenland like some hateful limpet...likewise the Eurotrash slug which has well and truly made the first third of the meterological winter into a horror show that won't be looked back on with any fondness. As long as those features remain dominant it's more than likely the rubbish non winter will continue. Time is not standing still. Once we hit January the clock is well and truly ticking.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

What you also have to bear in mind is that much of southern Britain has had two wet, windy and mild winters consecutively, and now we're well into a third where the only differences are that most of the disruptive monsoon rainfall has been in the north-west and the east coast hasn't (yet) had a storm surge as it had two winters ago.  Here, we had no snow at all in 2013-14 (a few wet flakes fell for around 30 minutes on one day but melted on touching the ground), and few frosts, and, last winter, we saw almost no frosts and had around 1 cm of snow lying for around 2 hours before it melted.  Now, we're having the dullest, cloudiest and gloomiest early winter for years, and it's been so warm yesterday that I was sweating in just a long-sleeved top!   To me, denying that this is anything other than the same old varying weather the UK expects in winter is ignoring a large mammal in the room.

Edited December 21, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Weather-history]

48 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

What a Xmas Day! looks like record breaking temps, bbq's out, shorts out looking at that chart, but strangely not expected to be that mild? 0nly 11C in the south,

Isn't it previous obvious? There's a warm front pushing northward on that chart, to the north of the front it will not be that mild. 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Isn't it previous obvious? There's a warm front pushing northward on that chart, to the north of the front it will not be that mild. 

 

I know, I meant south of the front, by evening front will be over Scotland

[Froze were the Days]

2014/15 wasn't brilliant for most southern/south eastern/eastern/south western and southern central areas - have I missed anybody out? yes some air/ground frosts and the briefest dusting of snow here that lasted an hour or so but it's largely been one way traffic since early spring 2013 here for anything remotely cold by day!

Edited December 21, 2015 by Froze were the Days

[78/79]

Now that I'm getting close to retirement age, it may be time to seriously think about clearing off to Eastern France, where,  the climate is much more seasonal , and your not at the mercy of every piece of crap the Atlantic wishes to throw at you. Somerset is a  complete toilet weather wise.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

2014/15 wasn't brilliant for most southern/south eastern/eastern/south western and southern central areas - have I missed anybody out? yes some air/ground frosts and the briefest dusting of snow here that lasted an hour or so but it's largely been one way traffic since early spring here for anything remotely cold by day!

Indeed - I know areas in the north Midlands and further north had quite a bit of snow, but south of there was as you describe.  I also would like to point-out that I'm only writing-off this winter fro locations south of a line roughly beween the north Wales coast and the Humber estaury.  Northern England and Scotland may well have more seasonal weather, but I just can't see it happening south of there.  This also references my feelings regarding a climate shift during winter.  I'm not saying it prevents snow in the Highlands, but it does seem to lead to set-ups remaining pretty much the same for weeks on end, which is not characteristic of traditional UK weather.

Edited December 21, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[I Cumbria Marra I]

13 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

2014/15 wasn't brilliant for most southern/south eastern/eastern/south western and southern central areas - have I missed anybody out? yes some air/ground frosts and the briefest dusting of snow here that lasted an hour or so but it's largely been one way traffic since early spring 2013 here for anything remotely cold by day!

It wasn't brilliant for anyone, especially low ground near the coast, i think western scotland had a few good snowfalls with a bit of elevation. You can see in my signature the snow i had last winter, it was lucky i made a note of it every time it snowed because it was that crap i can barely even remember it now.

Edited December 21, 2015 by I Cumbria Marra I

[damianslaw]

A remarkably mild 2 month period in the main - all down to the super El Nino I suspect, it was always going to be an uphill struggle to see anything particularly cold in recent weeks, but this level of sustained warmth is quite unprecedented.

 

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

A remarkably mild 2 month period in the main - all down to the super El Nino I suspect, it was always going to be an uphill struggle to see anything particularly cold in recent weeks, but this level of sustained warmth is quite unprecedented.

 

 

I wonder whether the post (wish I could recall who made it) the other day saying that the vortex was so powerful this year that it was unlikely to be weakened by anything short of a massive SSW might have been closer to the mark than any cold fan (or even non-mild fan) wanted to admit?

[Mapantz]

17 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

2014/15 wasn't brilliant for most southern/south eastern/eastern/south western and southern central areas

I had nothing to complain about, even down here.

7 frost days in December 2014. Minimum temp was -3.9°C
9 frost days in January 2015. Minimum temp was -4°C
12 frost days in February 2015. Minimum temp was -2.8°C

Then woke up to this on February 3rd..

That data and those pictures are considered to be the holy grail in this region (once in 5 years if you're lucky) of Southern England. Apart from a few places in Cornwall, I don't see many others on here doing worse than that?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I had nothing to complain about, even down here.

7 frost days in December 2014. Minimum temp was -3.9°C
9 frost days in January 2015. Minimum temp was -4°C
12 frost days in February 2015. Minimum temp was -2.8°C

Then woke up to this on February 3rd..

That data and those pictures are considered to be the holy grail in this region (once in 5 years if you're lucky) of Southern England. Apart from a few places in Cornwall, I don't see many others on here doing worse than that?

Are you saying that nowhere barring Cornwall had less snow last year than you?  If you are, I assure you that you're wide of the mark.  If you mean this winter, then I'd like to think you're right.

Edited December 21, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[I Cumbria Marra I]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I had nothing to complain about, even down here.

7 frost days in December 2014. Minimum temp was -3.9°C
9 frost days in January 2015. Minimum temp was -4°C
12 frost days in February 2015. Minimum temp was -2.8°C

Then woke up to this on February 3rd..

That data and those pictures are considered to be the holy grail in this region (once in 5 years if you're lucky) of Southern England. Apart from a few places in Cornwall, I don't see many others on here doing worse than that?

You did better than me and i'm about 250 miles north of you, whats your altitude above sea level? im very surprised you did that well

[Carl46Wrexham]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

What you also have to bear in mind is that much of southern Britain has had two wet, windy and mild winters consecutively, and now we're well into a third where the only differences are that most of the disruptive monsoon rainfall has been in the north-west and the east coast hasn't (yet) had a storm surge as it had two winters ago.  Here, we had no snow at all in 2013-14 (a few wet flakes fell for around 30 minutes on one day but melted on touching the ground), and few frosts, and, last winter, we saw almost no frosts and had around 1 cm of snow lying for around 2 hours before it melted.  Now, we're having the dullest, cloudiest and gloomiest early winter for years, and it's been so warm yesterday that I was sweating in just a long-sleeved top!   To me, denying that this is anything other than the same old varying weather the UK expects in winter is ignoring a large mammal in the room.

That's the problem. Our weather is "supposed" to be variable/changeable/unpredictable. For weeks and weeks now it's been anything but. It's been desperately dull...far too mild and for some far too wet. If the glosea is anything like accurate then the first half of this season is only good for the bin.

[knocker]

Looking at tonight's latest EC32 update once the ridge to the east is in full retreat around the 3rd it's a return to westerly zonal until the 22nd with periods of unsettled weather, perhaps more inclined to the north with temps around average in general.

[spindrift1980]

53 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

It wasn't brilliant for anyone, especially low ground near the coast, i think western scotland had a few good snowfalls with a bit of elevation. You can see in my signature the snow i had last winter, it was lucky i made a note of it every time it snowed because it was that crap i can barely even remember it now.

I wouldn't go as far as brilliant but last year was a pretty decent year for snow even at pretty low levels in western Scotland and Northern Ireland, with a good number of lying snow events and snow cover hanging around for a week or so in January on the outskirts of Glasgow.  There was also a hell of a lot of hill snow continuing into spring and even (alas) early summer.

This year started promisingly as it seemed to be cooling down as is usual in late November/early December after a very mild/warm spell but it's all gone a bit pear-shaped (so far!) although today felt more normal with temperatures 4C-6C and squally hail showers.   So far this 'winter' I've had one snow shower which left a brief smattering on the ground, and although the Highland mountains were looking very white last weekend, they're now down to the bare bones snow-wise.

Edited December 21, 2015 by spindrift1980

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking at tonight's latest EC32 update once the ridge to the east is in full retreat around the 3rd it's a return to westerly zonal until the 22nd with periods of unsettled weather, perhaps more inclined to the north with temps around average in general.

In other words, Brilliant news for you - Garbage news for me!

[Froze were the Days]

33 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I had nothing to complain about, even down here.

7 frost days in December 2014. Minimum temp was -3.9°C
9 frost days in January 2015. Minimum temp was -4°C
12 frost days in February 2015. Minimum temp was -2.8°C

Then woke up to this on February 3rd..

That data and those pictures are considered to be the holy grail in this region (once in 5 years if you're lucky) of Southern England. Apart from a few places in Cornwall, I don't see many others on here doing worse than that?

Yeah quite surprsing the slight regional variations - some parts of Dorset/south coast areas do get colder and have colder night time temps (sandy soils) - surprised you got that snow, I'll have to look up that date, but I can asure you were lucky if that was the case!

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

Looking at tonight's latest EC32 update once the ridge to the east is in full retreat around the 3rd it's a return to westerly zonal until the 22nd with periods of unsettled weather, perhaps more inclined to the north with temps around average in general.

That's a bit of worry,  I had hoped the EC32 would have started to pick up some kind of colder signal towards mid January. 

Delayed SSW then?  Colder February /March?