Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[SMU]

Another nail in the GFS coffin......

higher heights over greenland & sliding energy....

[nick sussex]

Go for it ECM! I can't see how that shortwave won't slide se'wards. It has to! Its got nowhere else to go.

 

[Geordiesnow]

Decent ECM imo with the ridging at 96 hours looking very similar to the UKMO and the potential for some snow showers down some eastern areas on Saturday so perhaps the story of mainly dry conditions won't apply to everyone in the UK although for the vast majority, it will be dry but hopefully sunny and frosty also. 

[gottolovethisweather]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

Yes. That low is the Azores low phasing with the Atlantic trough. That Azores low and and I have a long history. 

Ok I think I get it, its just these differing descriptions being offered up for the same things again, different people use different wording which confuses me in my old age of 43 years young. Basically, I take it we want it dive as far SE into Europe as possible which then allows for the Ridge to move North and block the Atlantic? Anyway, I guess we need to move on. I think the good Captain (Shortwave) refers to it too in his post if I'm not mistaken describing it as a "low pressure cutting in underneath the remaining heights".

ECM is trickling out so better go take a looksie.

 

[Cloud 10]

Black hole alert.

 

ECM 120..

[Mucka]

Very nice

Pencil in Jan 18th for possible widespread snow event England. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Quite a change at day 6

[karlos1983]

could be quite a snow event in the southwest if that was to verify at 144

[Eskimo]

ECM slides with the UKMO - Who would have predicted that?

Edited January 12, 2016 by phil nw.
removed off topic content

[Bristawl Si]

34 minutes ago, fromey said:

Well to put it out there Matt Hugo seems to think the overall signal is a return to swlys and the meto is playing catch up!!

answers on a post card!!

Wasnt it only a few days ago he was bullish about cold for 2nd half of Winter? Or am i being unfair?

[SMU]

Also to add a fairly robust level of very cold surface cold developing over the UK at 120

circa 0-2c over the UK at that time with deep frosts ....

144  Hugggeeee swing to UKMO -

thanks ECM .....

 

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Very nice

Pencil in Jan 18th for possible widespread snow event England. 

That chart is as dry as a bone! Some very, very cold temperatures under clear skies.

[Captain Shortwave]

Decent day 6 chart

Very cold all the way up to this point with hard frosts. Time to look north, how far south can that northerly reload get.

We are miles away from what the ECM showed yesterday and indeed this morning.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Ali1977]

Great UKMO, nice ECM and pretty good GFS with regards snow potential on Monday. However this turns out it's a huge improvement on December. Still no real agreement on the breakdown.

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

That chart is as dry as a bone! Some very, very cold temperatures under clear skies.

Yes but PPN should not be too far away from Ireland if actually not over Ireland but that is not the important thing, its the fact its pushing the Atlantic back again and is trending towards the UKMO is more encouraging. The cold is not giving up without a fight and thats the important thing. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Very nice

Pencil in Jan 18th for possible widespread snow event England. 

Yes 3 year anniversary of my snowfest!

[bradymk]

I remember reading that met office outlook a few days ago where it said "the cold may be hard to shift"

well..........

[Nick L]

Just now, Geordiesnow said:

Yes but PPN should not be too far away from Ireland if actually not over Ireland but that is not the important thing, its the fact its pushing the Atlantic back again and is trending towards the UKMO is more encouraging. The cold is not giving up without a fight and thats the important thing. 

Yes definitely. This is becoming a bitterly cold run with the Atlantic being stopped in its tracks. Fronts being held out to the southwest, some ice days likely in the north if this came into fruition.

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

That chart is as dry as a bone! Some very, very cold temperatures under clear skies.

ppn out West sliding SE but the synoptic of undercut promises a good chance of snow depending on the track of any low pressure/shortwave undercutting.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Mucka

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Another nail in the GFS coffin......

higher heights over greenland & sliding energy....

Under she goes , southeasterly winds with -4 850's , spells snow . Which should help drag colder uppers west . Not sure how much legs the greeny high will have in fi but it's definitely a step in the right direction . Gfs on its own !

[Snowman.]

Speechless right now. After a Mexican stand-off we're starting to get somewhere, obviously it's well into FI but we're starting to see more and more trough disruption head SE. The models are starting to come closer and closer together. A the mighty UKMO never backed down.

Now we need it to happen at T0!

Edited January 12, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Nick L]

Atlantic starts to win out past +168 but frankly I'm not too concerned, time and again we've seen models being far too eager to shift the cold in the past.

[mountain shadow]

It will be interesting to see which way the fronts are drawn on the Fax charts this pm

Will they be showing East -West indicating a contintenal victory?

[nick sussex]

Whatever happens in the ECM later output the important thing is its earlier move towards the UKMO. Just need the GFS to complete its backtrack and then we can  move to phase 2 of the Great January Miracle!

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by nick sussex

[joggs]

21 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

.I don't know why every time I try and post it brings up previous posts and quotes.  Whatever you have done I can't resolve it...anyone else have these problems?

 

BFTP

I do Got to delete everything and sometimes I can't bftp.