Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Mark Neal.]

High Res GFS for UK. shows the front moving in and hitting cold turning to sleet/snow as it reaches Central areas. 

 

[Aaki Khan]

My Word

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gfs will continue to disrupt that trough further sw as each run passes (if this is the correct route)

the next system should then come through. We need to generate an area of high heights just north of the UK to force the following systems se if we are to avoid the Atlantic coming through. 

Wow, perfect example BA I think 

 

Lets see what the ECM brings, I hope it moves to the UKMO or I could have cotton mouth @nick sussex 

Edited January 12, 2016 by karlos1983

[SMU]

UKMO 144 

bye bye GFS

GFS backpeddling again tonight....

s

 

[doctor32]

 ukmo 144 vs gfs 144 

 

soooo different again tonight, hope meto is onto something here, just wont give it up!

[Daniel*]

This low seems to be trending north - 300 miles further north than the GFS 18z from 48 hours ago, should be cold enough for it to fall snow to low levels in far north of England.

 

[January Snowstorm]

Fantastic ukmo

The full month

I wonder what the uppers would be

[Cloud 10]

UKMO going for the undercut at day 6.

 

 

A whole new ball-game if that verified.

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, Aaki Khan said:

My Word

WTF! 

Every single GEFS member would be wrong if this comes off. 

Remember that GFS lovers.

[Mucka]

Lousy UKMO taking away our breakdown snow!

 

 

[bluearmy]

Still flapping my wings at day 5

 

and the day 6 chart is bordering on weather porn as the system to our South engages the trough to our East thereafter. 

[Kieran]

Could be a snow event on Monday if charts are true...

 

  1am Monday Morning precipitation (mostly snow) moving into Wales and into England

 7am, Snow continuing to move eastwards into Midlands. Snow down in Southern England aswell

 1pm Monday Afternoon, snow across most of the country stalling mainly in Wales/ Midlands

 Further snow across England and Wales all the way till Monday evening. 

 

Wales and the Midlands in particular would be in the firing line on this run. Exciting times... 

[IPredictASnowStorm]

if you want snow heres a good chart 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Still flapping my wings at day 5

 

and the day 6 chart is bordering on weather porn as the system to our South engages the trough to our East thereafter. 

That's a an eagle not a bird BA 

[carinthian]

Now then that's what I call a winter chart.

 C

[Mark Neal.]

Using our colourful DAM/Heights uppers calculator..  Can get a general gist of uppers @January Snowstorm

  

For Oxford, central southern england i got too 544, 1023mb and got to uppers of around -6c.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Mark N

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

if you want snow heres a good chart 

I think most would prefer this one.

[Weathizard]

Christ. That's some UKMO chart, it's been so solid in its outlook for days but the GEFS have nothing like this in any single ensemble member, have to check the 12z suite and hope for a change, I genuinely don't believe the GFS can be THIS wrong.

 

Wonder if Ian could drop by and give us the MetO views if he has be time would be much appreciated by many im sure.

[northwestsnow]

OMG UKMO 144 

I dont think i can take anymore LOL!!!

Cut off Icelandic high COLD COLD COLD !!!!

Going to have dig the prayer mat out, AGAIN!!!!!

Edited January 12, 2016 by northwestsnow

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

If the UKMO is wrong, it's certainly giving us quite a show!  It isn't entirely without upport, though - Rob has posted the 500mb anomaly charts which have consistently shown a ridge over the western half of the UK and the near Atlantic.

Edited January 12, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Mark Neal.]

In summary good 12z runs so far, GFS becoming more amplified early on, and gives a snow event for some come monday on current viewing, but its trend is the key and encouraging thus far.

12Z UKMO is a wonderful chart, with a fantastic block to Iceland and North of UK. Low pressure into the Med and South of us..

 

[Paul_1978]

18 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep even stronger high this time crazy UKMO is leading the way.

It could be the GFS leading the way, but I hope it's the Met Office.

Will their £millions spent on computer systems, it's got to be onto something at that range hasn't it you would think? And it's certainly showing the other models its poker face.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Paul_1978

[warrenb]

Difficult to comment on any of it, as one of them is very wrong. Looking at the JMA 6z at 84hrs you can kind of see how the UKMO got there.

[tight isobar]

On Sunday, January 10, 2016 at 4:59 PM, tight isobar said:

Just a quick one. I've picked the gfs showing frame' with the shunt of progression its eyeballing. 

It Again appears far to progressive and chucking up energy in over .

Before new data input gfs' the ecm far outweighed the gfs @3days+...qith the ecm only having data misfortune at precipitation issues ie wrong locate/and weaker pick up.id suggest on current gfs modelling' not much has changed via output  compare gfs/ecm. And strongly believe we are at the critical cross Roads as to where we are going. ..and I know which model either way I'll be putting my cash on!!!I don't know what makes me laugh more atm  del boy or the gfs....However I rekon the gfs is being a right "plonker"!!!

Miss model/divergance' coming Into reliable re-form.

And agaI.

[Tony Beets]

very impressive, look at the kara high!! Pv is getting torn apart