Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Snowmut said:

Blimey! is the UKMO on the old viagra!

 A good STIFF, block that will be HARD to shift!!

This is what can happen when arctic air becomes entrenched, some of the models underestimate it and I'm hoping next week will see a continuation of the cold spell with the Atlantic energy sliding SE.

[Froze were the Days]

When has the UKMO stuck to it's guns and been correct over the ECM/GFS and other models at fairly short range? - trying to think of a time? - just hope not too many are being lead up the garden path again.

[northwestsnow]

Well this is up there with the most historic standoffs now,surely.

The difference at 96 is probably subtle in the global scheme of things, but for the UK it is HUGE.

Cmon ecm, just cmon!!!

[Snowman.]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

When has the UKMO stuck to it's guns and been correct over the ECM/GFS and other models at fairly short range? - trying to think of a time? - just hope not too many are being lead up the garden path again.

Jan 2013.

 

UKMO vs All other models it won.

Never discount the UKMO during the failed easterly in december of 2013 the UKMO had none of it.

[A.J]

sensible discussion please......a lot of way OTT ramps and one-liners.......thanks

[i luv snow]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

When has the UKMO stuck to it's guns and been correct over the ECM/GFS and other models at fairly short range? - trying to think of a time? - just hope not too many are being lead up the garden path again.

If you were reading the posts this morning, particularly from Steve M, January 2013 in a very similar set-up to this. Food for thought? UKMO has been pretty consistent just hopefully not consistently wrong.. quite a few members on here have said this has been a potential outcome from the models, once they began to get a better handle on things. We can but cross our fingers!

Edited January 12, 2016 by i luv snow

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

 just hope not too many are being lead up the garden path again.

Hopefully a snowy garden path This weekend looks  very cold with sharp frosts and freezing fog once the snow showers clear eastern coasts.

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

When has the UKMO stuck to it's guns and been correct over the ECM/GFS and other models at fairly short range? - trying to think of a time? - just hope not too many are being lead up the garden path again.

 

I agree, as good as that UKMO chart is seriously doubt it will come off, when the last few gfs esemble suite's are completley against it as is the ECM, which is somehere inbetween gfs/ukmo at the moment. Also every good UKMO ouput always seems to be at 144h..

[danthetan]

21 minutes ago, Mark N said:

High Res GFS for UK. shows the front moving in and hitting cold turning to sleet/snow as it reaches Central areas. 

 

Thats likely to be corrected west as we get closer to monday 

[Summer Sun]

Once again we have some rather large differences between GFS and UKMO one of these models is wrong but which will it be....

GFS shows the coldest air slowly moving east at t144 with some less cold air waiting in the wings

UKMO is having non of it keeping us in the cold air

GEM is going the less cold route as well

Over to ECM now...

[Liam J]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It could be the GFS leading the way, but I hope it's the Met Office.

 

Indeed that's the worry but I hope it's the UKMO!!! GEM follows a very similar route to the GFS and if the ECM follows previous output later then that will leave the UKMO all alone... Really cannot see the ECM being so wrong for too much longer if the UKMO is on on the right track! So the beginning of next week is still uncertain as long as the models are still locking horns with each other. 

[ukpaul]

Support for UKMO from the short range Arpege model.

Edited January 12, 2016 by ukpaul

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

 

I agree, as good as that UKMO chart is seriously doubt it will come off, when the last few gfs esemble suite's are completley against it as is the ECM, which is somehere inbetween gfs/ukmo at the moment. Also every good UKMO ouput always seems to be at 144h..

UKMO 96h & 120h are not bad either thats when the high starts to build.

Edited January 12, 2016 by booferking

[bradymk]

GFS 12z Yesterday 144                                     Same time on todays run (120)

Further west, trough more negatively tilted with higher heights around Iceland and southern Greenland.

GFS 168 yesterday                                        GFS same time today (144)

Doubt monday's front will even make the UK if the westward corrections continue. The GFS clearly isnt a UKMO style output but it is slowly correcting the energy more SE.

[Frosty.]

As others have said, the ukmo 12z is a stonker for coldies and its strengthened the cold signal for next week...hope it's right!!

[Man With Beard]

To examine the GFS/UKMO differences, its worth going back to T96:

Same old story - low pressure on GFS is deeper and neater - less likely to disrupt. 

Historically, the GFS is more likely to downgrade than upgrade that low in the Atlantic as T0 approaches. Meaning more change of heights getting in ahead of it. Something to watch for in the next few runs.

[Weather Boy]

17 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Jan 2013.

 

UKMO vs All other models it won.

Never discount the UKMO during the failed easterly in december of 2013 the UKMO had none of it.

Maybe old age is playing tricks with my memory, but I thought that it was UKMO that was the most determined to bring the easterly in and GFS was the first to sniff that it was not going to happen.

Very happy to be corrected.

It will be a major embarrassment for the GFS with all its ensembles against UKMO if it is wrong.  However, for that very same reason, I would tip GFS rather than UKMO.

[Liam J]

Anyone seen the frigid 6z CFS, the UKMO has some support!! 

 UKMO 

[mickpips]

The problem is even the Met Office do not believe in their own output , surely they must see this output before the general public so why update their extended outlook to suggest the return of milder temps from the SW next week ? Not only that , they have changed it from 'Mid Week' to 'Early-Mid week' .... Wouldn't that suggest they believe more in the GFS projection ? 

[Snowman.]

Just now, mickpips said:

The problem is even the Met Office do not believe in their own output , surely they must see this output before the general public so why update their extended outlook to suggest the return of milder temps from the SW next week ? Not only that , they have changed it from 'Mid Week' to 'Early-Mid week' .... Wouldn't that suggest they believe more in the GFS projection ? 

It's easier to swing for mild. It also has most support but we still have a standoff with changes coming in really early making large differences.

[Weather Boy]

1 minute ago, mickpips said:

The problem is even the Met Office do not believe in their own output , surely they must see this output before the general public so why update their extended outlook to suggest the return of milder temps from the SW next week ? Not only that , they have changed it from 'Mid Week' to 'Early-Mid week' .... Wouldn't that suggest they believe more in the GFS projection ? 

No, I think that it is released at practically the same time to the public as the Meto see it.  However, they do get to see a longer range than the public release.

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Weather Boy said:

Maybe old age is playing tricks with my memory, but I thought that it was UKMO that was the most determined to bring the easterly in and GFS was the first to sniff that it was not going to happen.

Very happy to be corrected.

It will be a major embarrassment for the GFS with all its ensembles against UKMO if it is wrong.  However, for that very same reason, I would tip GFS rather than UKMO.

ECM sniffed the easterly. GFS was on-board but it quickly crumbled. UKMO usually the party pooper.

[Daniel*]

35 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

Seems to be getting better and better from the UKMO Icelandic/scandi high in the offing? The UKMO is like a dog with a bone it wont let go will it?

Looks similar doesn't it from the 120hr Fax from yesterday, this has not surprised me one bit. It is the model of choice in this scenario.

[tight isobar]

Given the recent (now seemingly endless) model diagnosis' ie tracking energy, amplification, cool/to cold infer... (divergence! 

Im confident of an Ecm overall 12zsuite synoptics. ..of around how things shall unfold+24/+144.

Ukmo has been a keen contender for "at least" stand firm synoptics' and deserves 10 out of 10' for non tangle. 

With the Canadian(Gem) And the Japanese (Jma) in close context. 

However the reference to the Ecm is full part to its about synoptics time frames ie +24-144.

And I'd back my bottom dollar on this evening s 12zsuite being tge overall top output within above mentioned time perm's when reflectint this time next week....

If im wrong im wrong. .but look forward to this evening run....especially! 

[mickpips]

1 minute ago, Weather Boy said:

No, I think that it is released at practically the same time to the public as the Meto see it.  However, they do get to see a longer range than the public release.

Just very confusing though wouldn't you agree ? They obviously chose 'their' update to reflect what the GFS was showing