Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, fromey said:

Well to put it out there Matt Hugo seems to think the overall signal is a return to swlys and the meto is playing catch up!!

answers on a post card!!

Yes well that might well be the case eventually. But its really the timing and how long the cold can last. We'll see, I think its a case of trying to squeeze out as much interest before that possibility. The ECM ensembles only really show a strong signal for that past day ten and as we've seen a lot can change.

[Weather Boy]

1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman said:

But are you tipping the GFS output from yesterday or today?

The GFS is slowly but surely backtracking with regard to the Eastwards progress of the low but the UKMO has been rock solid in its modelling of the situation.

I know where my money is!

Fair point, and I hope you are right.  At the risk of stating the obvious, nobody really knows, including Matt Hugo! 

However, your post returns us to yesterday's conversation that consistency does not equal a good model.  But equally it doesn't make it a bad one.

Let's be honest, I haven't the foggiest!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Many thanks.. So another good trend for tonight in my view is that tonight's UkMet 120 is even better than last nights 144.

stronger heights to the northwest but a significant difference and increase in the amount of energy heading Canada..so on one hand good with the heights, on the other.. Well I'm not actually too sure..

The thing is though everything does still point to a return to Atlantic driven weather AT SOME POINT, its just the block is putting up a better fight than the models suggest - as per usual. I would rather have a breakdown with some snow across the spine of the country as per a few GFS runs lately, if there was a chance of the block actually holding and bring in a proper easterly then of course i would rather have the UKMO output, i am looking a lot higher up in the atmosphere though at the moment.

[Mucka]

16 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

At what timeframe is this so-called undercut mucka, where should my eyes be drawn to it on the charts?

Hi GTLTW I made a detailed post on it yesterday and previously last week before that how we may see the models move toward it.

As Karlos1983 stated from about T96. without quoting old posts take tonight's UKMO 96/120

Although the undercut becomes very obvious at 144 it actually begins around 96h. Look for the trough to begin disrupting SE but also look for how strong heights are between Iceland and Greenland as the stronger the ridge builds the better chance of forcing more energy SE

Edited January 12, 2016 by Mucka

[snowray]

A middle ground from the ECM would be an interesting outcome. in fact there it is not out of the question for Mondays battleground snow to turn into an undercut giving us something closer to the UKMO144h chart.

UKMO has stuck to its guns and the tide does indeed seem to be turning in its favour.  What I find incredible is that it would make almost every GFS ensemble member wrong for next week.

Edited January 12, 2016 by snowray

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I agree with everyone who says the UKMO is the best, but I always love this setup, snow coming in from the west, similar to Feb 4th 2012, but on future GFS runs, I expect this to be moved miles further West, and sadly no snow on Monday, UKMO for Monday dosen't look snowy

[Cloud 10]

12z NAVGEM has redeemed itself after a few wobbles.

 

12z..   06z..

[tight isobar]

On Sunday, January 10, 2016 at 4:59 PM, tight isobar said:

Just a quick one. I've picked the gfs showing frame' with the shunt of progression its eyeballing. 

It Again appears far to progressive and chucking up energy in over .

Before new data input gfs' the ecm far outweighed the gfs @3days+...qith the ecm only having data misfortune at precipitation issues ie wrong locate/and weaker pick up.id suggest on current gfs modelling' not much has changed via output  compare gfs/ecm. And strongly believe we are at the critical cross Roads as to where we are going. ..and I know which model either way I'll be putting my cash on!!!I don't know what makes me laugh more atm  del boy or the gfs....However I rekon the gfs is being a right "plonker"!!!

Miss model/divergance' coming Into reliable re-form.

And agaI.

[Mucka]

ECM 96 almost right in the middle of the UKMO GFS solutions.

[gottolovethisweather]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Hi GTLTW I made a detailed post on it yesterday and previously last week before that how we may see the models move toward it.

As Karlos1983 stated from about T96. without quoting old posts take tonight's UKMO 96/120

Although the undercut becomes very obvious at 144 it actually begins around 96h. Look for the trough to begin disrupting SE but also look for how strong heights are between Iceland and Greenland as the stronger the ridge builds the better chance of forcing more energy SE

 

Not sure where my question went, deleted somehow, anyway I'll ask again. Are we referring to the same surface feature/low out in the Mid Atlantic then due West of Ireland on the chart dated the 16th which similar dissipates due  SW of the British Isles come the 17th in your examples above?

[karlos1983]

Come on, you know you want to

[bradymk]

Better than yesterday's run already at 96. Probably see more energy going SE this run than we did yesterday!

[Captain Shortwave]

One thing about the ECM so far would be to look at the differences to yesterdays run.

ECM Day 4 to yesterdays day 5

     

A much better push of heights north west from the ridge near the UK tonight.

On a detail note, that little low over the low countries might be able to pep up the wintry showers down eastern coasts, most notably East Anglia given the flow.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Midlands Ice Age]

7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Miss model/divergance' coming Into reliable re-form.

And agaI.

TI

Not being critical, but with the number of characters wrong (Shown as misspelling), can I suggest that you re-boot your machine  (if its a Vista PC).  I have had similar problems but they have been resolved by a reboot after deleting all my temporary storage and cache.

MIA

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 07/01/2016 at 0:47 AM, Roger J Smith said:

 

.I don't know why every time I try and post it brings up previous posts and quotes.  Whatever you have done I can't resolve it...anyone else have these problems?

 

BFTP

Edited January 12, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

 

Not sure where my question went, deleted somehow, anyway I'll ask again. Are we referring to the same surface feature/low out in the Mid Atlantic then due West of Ireland on the chart dated the 16th which similar dissipates due  SW of the British Isles come the 17th in your examples above?

 

Yes. That low is the Azores low phasing with the Atlantic trough. That Azores low and and I have a long history. 

[Mark Neal.]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

.I don't know why every time I try and post it brings up previous posts and quotes.  Whatever you have done on this site it is ridiculous  

 

BFTP

When you go to post, click top left of the post and clear, should then go BFTP.

Will the ECM Slide at 120hrs? 

[That ECM]

I've pressed f5 that many times my finger hurts!!!!

[karlos1983]

not sure if it will quite get there, but it's having a damn good go at it at +120

Edited January 12, 2016 by karlos1983

[northwestsnow]

ecm has moved towards ukmo this evening, maybe not enough but it has for sure moved to ukmo at 96

[bradymk]

Haha

 

wheres that slide Karlos?

Edited January 12, 2016 by bradythemole

[Cheshire Freeze]

23 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

He doesn't like the Meto? I'll roll with that

Yeah and last week he was having that twitter exchange with Ian Fergusson stating this wasn't just a '2 day toppler' 

[Midlands Ice Age]

34 minutes ago, Nick L said:

To get rid of quotes, click the top of the quote box in the editor (where you see how long ago the post was and who by) and hit delete on your keyboard.

Thanks Nick...

It worked!!

MIA

[khodds]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

.I don't know why every time I try and post it brings up previous posts and quotes.  Whatever you have done I can't resolve it...anyone else have these problems?

 

BFTP

Yes I do! And it's really annoying. It happens when I'm on my phone 

[snowray]

Great ECM 120h chart, can we get the slider now?