Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[winterof79]

Track Liable to change but I'd bank that as an imby perspective

 

 

[jy]

OK chinstrap tightened on tin hat prior to a rare foray into this thread.Earlier today Carinthian posted that European models to which he had access suggested they supported the UKMO, ie colder weather with perhaps some duration.Not for a moment am I saying its conclusive or correct,but it is model related,so wondered what peoples take on that is,right back in the trench lol

[mushymanrob]

the 500mb charts still refuse to go with the gfs and now ecm regarding a quick return to mild southwesterlies. those of you seeking colder solutions should be happy with this.

 

[bradymk]

16 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Would you then conclude that this isn't really a 'cold spell', more akin to average if conditions for snow are still marginal? But not just that, the 2m temperature are also around the average. 

Yes would agree with regard to it is just being average 2m temps until Friday (although below from what we've been used to). But ECM then shows three cold days Saturday, Sunday and Monday (although dry) and we could sneak a couple more days with a more favorable output later. Birmingham on 00z op doesn't go above 2c between Friday Night and late morning Tuesday and almost ice days Sat/Sun so would say it would be described as a cold spell.

On to the 12z, lets hope the GFS shows some more trough disruption to our west early next week.....

[karlos1983]

Nice little 1030 wedge over Iceland. Likey likey 

[booferking]

Run by run GFS is more amplified its slowly getting there.

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Run by run GFS is more amplified its slowly getting there.

UKMO is the form horse so it seems.

[Iceberg]

Yep always in the t96 time frame  but gfs moves yet again towards the meto better angle of jet as well

[Aqbadger]

9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice little 1030 wedge over Iceland. Likey likey 

Basic question I'm sure, but what does that potentially indicate?

[Mucka]

GFS produces more warm sectors than a toasted waffle

But overall it is another improvement. Where we see 1030 marked out just on N tip of UK, we want to see that progressively moved toward Iceland.

If we can get it that far NW and a little stronger then undercut should be all but guaranteed. 

At the current rate of improvement we will be there tomorrow evening but that assumes the Op runs don't chop and change. 

Edited January 12, 2016 by Mucka

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Aqbadger said:

Basic question I'm sure, but what does that potentially indicate?

Well heights to our north is never a bad thing, if we want cold. But in this situation any heights to the north of us to keep the Atlantic at bay would be good 

[grca]

UKMO for comparison to GFS at 96hrs..

UKMO

GFS

 

UKMO looking to replicate it's earlier run to my untrained eye..

[Mark Neal.]

Looks like the front on Monday is going to turn to snow as hits parts of the UK on this run, winds from SE. Cold air still in place, can it continue to distrupt that low... Interesting oncemore. 

  

Certainly a nice trend.. 

Edited January 12, 2016 by Mark N

[karlos1983]

There is no question about it, the GFS is under estimating the block.

On a train, my bettery is about to die, I can't believe this 

[Man With Beard]

Even on the GFS at T132, we're not far off seeing the Atlantic trough go under the block. The GFS is the last model I'd expect to pick up on this at T132 - as we discussed earlier, it may not even pick it up until T72 - so although it won't happen on this run, definitely not a done deal.

[mountain shadow]

That is some UK Met chart.  Surely all the energy is going SE with a high around Iceland? 

[Mark Neal.]

 

Staying as snow as front weakens generally thanks to cold air still for most and SE flow. 

[karlos1983]

Le Resistance 

 

[beng]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021

 

Icelandic/S Greenland high on the way I think.

[bluearmy]

The gfs will continue to disrupt that trough further sw as each run passes (if this is the correct route)

the next system should then come through. We need to generate an area of high heights just north of the UK to force the following systems se if we are to avoid the Atlantic coming through. 

[booferking]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Le Resistance 

 

Yep even stronger high this time crazy UKMO is leading the way.

[Great Plum]

Interesting GFS chart at 144 hrs with the eastern half of the country under -5 air...

[Iceberg]

Very snowy breakdown on monday from gfs thanks go the colder air in situ thanks to the movement towards meto earlyy. 

[mushymanrob]

Just now, booferking said:

Yep even stronger high this time crazy UKMO is leading the way.

not really, the noaa 500 mb charts have been suggesting this option for days now..

[Continental Climate]

Seems to be getting better and better from the UKMO Icelandic/scandi high in the offing? The UKMO is like a dog with a bone it wont let go will it?