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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM a bit half-hearted with that phasing upstream. We want to see that shortwave more developed and as it runs into the Atlantic this would help pivot the PV lobe nw. We want the ne/sw trough formation upstream digging as far south as possible to help drive high pressure ne ahead of it.

Nick, if you have a chance could you do one of your famous circled paint jobbie charts on this. So much talk of phasing, shortwaves, upstream and downstream by so many posters that I can't even remember what I'm supposed to be looking for in the charts. :cc_confused: Thankyou kindly. This will also greatly assist others as well I'm sure. What timescales are we talking about here too?

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted
3 minutes ago, AWD said:

Everyone's looking at the 850hpa temps at 120, seeing -6c & assuming snowfall.

For what it's worth, IMO, it would be a slush fest of rain & sleet for most as the low is coming up from the Azores bringing embedded moist air with it and therefore high WBFL and dewpoints.

Just my opinion of course, but it doesn't look right for snow to me.

Maybe for you down to sea level, but for most of us that would most definaltly be snow! (taking that chart on face value.)

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Nick, if you have a chance could you do one of your famous circled paint jobbie charts on this. So much talk of phasing, shortwaves, upstream and downstream that I don't even remember what I'm supposed to be looking for in the charts. Thankyou kindly. This will also greatly assist others as well I'm sure. What timescales are we talking about here too?

Sure , after the ECM has finished and I've made yet another espresso. This will highlight the importance of trying to get that PV lobe to pivot and pull nw.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

A reminder of this evenings output 144h comparisons. ECM, UKMO, JMA, GFS.

ECH1-144.GIFUN144-21.GIFJN144-21.GIF?09-12gfsnh-0-144.png

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Well i didn't see that coming, but then I am an ametuer :rofl:

ECH1-192.GIF?09-0

Interesting.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

The high tries but fails with low pressure winning out snow for some parts in the north though a bit more marginal for the south

ECM1-192.GIF?09-0ECM0-192.GIF?09-0

 

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Really nice at 192, just don't have confidence in it happening...NE'ly at 216 maybe!!

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Connor Bailey Degnan Community Regular

Connor Bailey Degnan

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
Posted

Wow ecm is eye candy pretty much nationwide. -8 uppers for the majority of the country by Thursday with an increased risk on snow just about anywhere if this verifies. I think if the GFS 18z hops on board tonight, us snow lovers can start to get very excited! :)

 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

ECM1-192.GIF?09-0

Pure FI I know, but we don't want shortwave tracking here, milder for all at low levels in the south

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

So the ecm backs the ukmo and gem. Expect the gfs to backtrack either on the 18z run or 00z run. Think it looks like the gfs is barking up the wrong tree here. Expect it to backtrack now. 

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Nouska Accomplished

Nouska

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
Posted
9 minutes ago, AWD said:

Everyone's looking at the 850hpa temps at 120, seeing -6c & assuming snowfall.

For what it's worth, IMO, it would be a slush fest of rain & sleet for most as the low is coming up from the Azores bringing embedded moist air with it and therefore high WBFL and dewpoints.

Just my opinion of course, but it doesn't look right for snow to me.

Are you sure that low has come from the Azores? I'm following the ARPEGE output and it looks like the Azores secondary low is just absorbed somewhere south of the UK. The SE England low has travelled from the North of the country.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php

Run the animation.

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sn0wman Contributor

sn0wman

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
Posted (edited)

Fantastic +192h chart from the ECM tonight! You could tell from all the WAA moving into Greenland at 168 hrs that this was going to happen. That shortwave moving SE would be a very good snow event for much of the country. Easterly incoming? :cold: Certainly looks a lot more promising for us coldies today :D 

ECM1-192.GIF

Edited by sn0wman
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ECM1-192.GIF?09-0

Pure FI I know, but we don't want shortwave tracking here, milder for all at low levels in the south

That is actually a potential trigger low for an Easterly type flow. It is a great chart regardless of rain/sleet/snow on the day.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, sn0wman said:

Fantastic +192h chart from the ECM tonight! You could tell from all the WAA moving into Greenland at 168 hrs that this was going to happen. That shortwave moving SE would be a very good snow event for much of the country. Certainly looks promising for us coldies today :D 

ECM1-192.GIF

depends where you live, don't we need the shortwave tracking further West? with all snow on eastern edge

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Jason H Enthusiast

Jason H

Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
Posted
Just now, sn0wman said:

Fantastic +192h chart from the ECM tonight! You could tell from all the WAA moving into Greenland at 168 hrs that this was going to happen. That shortwave moving SE would be a very good snow event for much of the country. Certainly looks promising for us coldies today :D 

ECM1-192.GIF

Omega? Shame its over a week away though. Nice to look at. You can see why some forecasters are hinting the cold could go on past next weekend though with these charts.

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted
Just now, weather eater said:

Nice very nice but as ever with synoptic modelling its evolution not revolution. something similar would be good though

 

The main thing is the ECM is not showing a swift return to atlantic conditions, this was always the fear yesterday. Looking good.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ECM1-192.GIF?09-0

Pure FI I know, but we don't want shortwave tracking here, milder for all at low levels in the south

Eh! You're having a laugh. That's a great chart, we want the shortwave to drop se and allow high pressure to develop to the ne.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

JMA 192 not quite as good as ECM but the Atlantic ain't coming through that in a hurry. Also hints of energy disrupting SE under the block.:D

JN192-21.GIF?09-12

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Easterly is on at +216, but I fear only temporary, but i'd take it thanks. All in lala land but still, a nice run from the ECM.

ECH1-216.GIF?09-0ECH0-216.GIF?09-0

Edited by karlos1983
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sn0wman Contributor

sn0wman

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
Posted
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

depends where you live, don't we need the shortwave tracking further West? with all snow on eastern edge

Looking at the uppers chart it would definitely be mainly Scotland and Northern England getting pasted with snow, whereas there would be a mixture of sleet and rain further south. Looks very promising though even for those who would get rain from that scenario - possibly an easterly setting up on this run. Of course, it's too far away to take that seriously but it's a nice trend to see.

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chicken soup Aficionado

chicken soup

Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
Posted
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Big inflection point in the jet over the atlantic at 168-

energy going SSE -

azores high having another go like a persistent yorkshire terrier....

May be a bit early steve...but any chance of one of your snow risk maps for thurs fri....cheers.

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