Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS short ensembles SE England. Note the ppn spike on the 14th which will be as a result of shortwave energy moving up from the SW and down from the NW as previously posted.

Odd that, 'IDO' posted something completely different regarding the ens? op looks an outlier by the 17th to my eyes

[Cloud 10]

8 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Anything could still happen after 96hrs, i think the ecm will jump on board with the UKMO and GEM. GFS always trys to bring in the atlantic to quick.

 

This is starting to show the hallmarks of another epic GFS fail.

 

UKMO,GEM and GFS at 144 hrs for comparison.

 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Odd that, 'IDO' posted something completely different regarding the ens? op looks an outlier by the 17th to my eyes

Ok then, it's almost on its own from 15/16th..but that's clearly when it starts to lose agreement with the rest.

[mother nature rocks]

21 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Some very nice essemble members (144h)

 

1

3

4

7

9

17

18

19

20

 .

 

 

So a near 50/50 of the ensembles are cold. GFS still holding out some hope.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows an increasing chance of snow in various parts of the UK next week as polar air sinks south, it becomes very cold across Scotland as Arctic air digs south. For the first time this winter it looks like temperatures will fall below average nationwide and frosts will become more widespread with icy patches and where there is a covering of snow, some very sharp frosts would occur. I still think the outlook from the end of next week is very uncertain.

[J10]

Shouldn't we wait and see until Friday/Saturday next week whether or not GFS or UKMO were better in their predictions. Then we can justifiably check to see which is correct/more accurate.

[Mucka]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Odd that, 'IDO' posted something completely different regarding the ens? op looks an outlier by the 17th to my eyes

It is just a matter of timing not overall synoptic. The Op is very progressive and sends more energy East while other members keep things more amplified for a day or so with cold zonal even though the Atlantic is ultimately coming through.

 

I also stated around 50% of members want to keep a more amplified pattern in FI and just to head that argument off, it doesn't show in the graphs because many do not maintain cold uppers or even cold at the surface but they do remain amplified giving promise of further blocking.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Mucka

[IDO]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Odd that, 'IDO' posted something completely different regarding the ens? op looks an outlier by the 17th to my eyes

That graph is for upper temps, whilst I was referring to mesoscale developments. There is no question the op is progressive (three other members still support it) in pushing the cold away but its ensembles are supporting the spoiler low more with each run, and there is no way that is good for the longevity of cold. If it has that synoptic right then you can discount the other 34% of the ensembles (as they would be wrong) and then the op T850 would be in a cluster of about 33% that are progressive, most of the rest would flatten the pattern a little while after the op. 

The D10-16 GEFS mean keeps us in a mean ridge with the jet running through the UK and average temps, N/S split.

Edited January 9, 2016 by IDO

[nick sussex]

As much as we'd like to ignore the GFS output we should bear in mind that its view of the sticking out shortwave from Iceland was proven to be correct.

For this reason if the ECM supports the others we'd like to see the GFS move quickly to those solutions. Of course we're dealing with different synoptics so its progressive bias might be worth factoring in, this is also an issue for the GEFS.

Personally I'd like to see less model drama so we can spend a more enjoyable time  picking out the snow chances not whether they'll appear at all, I think we've all had enough of the weeks chopping and changing.

[Cloud 10]

Even the NAVGEM  not going with the GFS early breakdown.

 

[weather eater]

49 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

This is starting to show the hallmarks of another epic GFS fail.

 

UKMO,GEM and GFS at 144 hrs for comparison.

 

 

I do hope you are right. However epic fails are not restricted to the GFS. In terms of the UKMO I have no faith in it post 96hrs, that's a long term observation on my part, others may have other ideas. I have yet to see in these potential cold  situations the UKMO trump the ECM and GFS, especially not  if it is out on its own. When we do have a split in the models what normally happens is not a one model or the other emerging as a clear winner but a compromise solution. If this evening ECM goes with a UKMO/GEM solution then the game is still very much on but if it backs the GFS then I fear we will be left waiting to see what the morning after evolution is going to look like.

Edited January 9, 2016 by weather eater

[Singularity]

Well, when GFS is in a standoff against all the other models, it almost always turns out to be off on one. Fingers crossed this isn't going to be one of the exceptions to the rule.

For what it's worth, a 'gradual toppler' is looking more and more credible to my eyes - one of those cases where a ridge refuses to be knocked down without a bit of a fight, perhaps leading to at least a brief Scandi ridge though that really is speculation at this point in time.

ECM's soon to start and we'll know by around 6:20 which side of the argument it supports with that shortwave feature, if either...

[Captain Shortwave]

So the ECM will be coming out in a few minutes. Given the runs we have seen  today I guess there are two things to watch out for.

1) Can the ECM produce a second attempt at that ridge towards Greenland like the UKMO/GEM/NAVGEM solution.

2) Will it continue to be bullish about trying to move towards a MJO phase 1 solution. Notably if element one can be achieved can we get that Atlantic ridge to keep the flow northerly before backing it north east and then finally east with a proper high to our north/north east developing allowing the coldest air over eastern Europe to back westwards.

To be fair the GEM and NAVGEM have a go at this, albeit not that successful but do look like developing a chilly anticyclonic spell as opposed to returning us to a westerly pattern.

NAVGEM/GEM day 7 charts

GEM day 10

 

Fingers crossed.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Was just about to post link of UKMO T144 and when I did paste,,,,my wife's business blinds sample came up

 

Anyway UKMO is really nice and this show is far from over.  It makes me think of RJS' post re mild trying to nudge in, lessening cold but cold pattern coming back more robustly.  This is far from over and indeed its getting even more interesting

 

BFTP

[SMU]

Evening All -

Well well again, a better day ( so far ) as the models take a turn for the better - more especially the UKMO that seems to have embarked on its own personal agenda of showing great synoptics despite other models being a little more progressive -

Indeed the UKMOs slow solution shows perhaps, slightly more blocking available than that of the perceived amount after the collapse of the GH ridging yesterday-

So as we have moved through today the threat of the iberian low seems to be receeding - but still poses a threat to the south-

This is probably down to ironically the shortwave low that develops over SW greenland at the time where we didnt want it to develop -

what we are seeing is the delicate rebalancing of the energy distribution of the jet - with more SE flow & less poleward thrust -

The net today is that -6c line becomes ever more tantalising to the south coast-

This embedded cold remains in situ as we wait for the models to resolve the next bout of energy moving in what direction??...

ENE -  booooo

ESE  -  yaaaaa

The models with the coldest outcomes will be ESE-

We await the much awaited ECM 12z with an air of anticipation & perhaps with renewed optimism....

S

[Singularity]

6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

On 1/8/2016 at 6:15 PM, CreweCold said:

Please delete, i cant seem to get rid of this quote from crew when i try to post something. Mobile is fine but PC is strange lol!

Have you tried using CTRL + Right Click which brings up an option to remove quote? I've posted this response in here as a fair few people seem to have this issue and the above works fine for me.

 

ECM out to +96 and there's a second ridge west of the shortwave feature, just as UKMO has for example. This could mean it pulls off the trick of pulling the eastern ridge back west (relative to the pattern as the whole feature moves east) a bit with the shortwave heading east to the UK.

GFS does have a second ridge of sorts but it's weaker. We'll know if my line of thought is of any value when ECM +120 rolls out. It's not that clear-cut now that I look again.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Singularity

[That ECM]

T96 is not what most want to see. Like gfs

[chris55]

GFS ensembles are actually heading the right way towards day 8-9 but the op is determined to stay as a mild outlier. Beyond day 10 i wouldnt put any trust in any output at the moment lol.

UKMO is excellent tonight !

Await ECM with interest.

 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

T96 is not what most want to see. Like gfs

Looks a little better to me but interesting to see it is keeping the Azores shortwave well to the South.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

T96 is not what most want to see. Like gfs

To my eye, ECM 96 looks more like UKMO than GFS

ECM/GFS/UKMO 

[Captain Shortwave]

Now that's what I call complicated.

So we have a shallow low south of Greenland which is undercutting the ridge ahead with another ridge building quickly behind. The GFS op takes this straight east. Hmm.....

So I expect this run will kill off that feature in situ given how weak it is with perhaps the ridge re-establishing.

Day 5

I will take that.

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[IDO]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

Now that's what I call complicated.

So we have a shallow low south of Greenland which is undercutting the ridge ahead with another ridge building quickly behind. The GFS op takes this straight east. Hmm.....

So I expect this run will kill off that feature in situ given how weak it is with perhaps the ridge re-establishing.

Yes it is very similar to the 0z run so I would assume the same result?

[Ali1977]

120 looks great to me...

Edited January 9, 2016 by Ali1977

[karlos1983]

120

none to warm, I would bite your arm off for that verify

Edited January 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[gottolovethisweather]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes it is very similar to the 0z run so I would assume the same result?

Which was good or bad for coldies? I seem to recall it was a reasonable run but not as good as say two to three days ago. 

Edited January 9, 2016 by gottolovethisweather