Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Daniel*]

T+120

snowfall for large swathes of Southern England?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks good, but can the low get far enough north for snow in the N Midlands

[Mucka]

In your face GFS!

Now we just need it to verify. 

[doctor32]

 ECM looks better @ 120 than gfs and ukmo to me  

[Singularity]

So ECM merges the shortwave with the upstream low again.

Now let's see how strong it is with the jet off the U.S. as this is where GFS keeps firing the cannon. As already stated (or at least implied) I'm looking for it to be at least weak enough to let the ridge put up a fight.

Oh and for what it's worth that looks like a candidate for a marginal rain/snow event across the south as the uppers start around -4*C and drop to around -6*C.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Singularity

[nick sussex]

Shocked two consecutive ECM runs with the same pattern! Interest now upstream, will it have another southern stream low running ne and phasing with that PV lobe. This was the issue NCEP had with its 00hrs output.

[Mucka]

Would the little shortwave feature give snow for the SE? 

[chris55]

ECM attempting to ridge the Atlantic high towards Greenland again, certainly looks possible from the 120 chart.

[shaky]

Very very good ecm!!would be all snow on thursday aswell!!colder uppers!!cmon gfs stop being stubborn!!

[bluearmy]

Need to check T108 to see the track,uppers and surface winds as the low approaches

its come from a long way south. 

EDIT: scrap this post - diff system!

Edited January 9, 2016 by bluearmy

[karlos1983]

144

still cold but settling down

[gottolovethisweather]

20 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks good, but can the low get far enough north for snow in the N Midlands

At D5 don't even think about where, when, how much etc. FI probably starts about then given the struggle for cross-model consensus. If I can have some snow in Berkshire, I'm more than happy to let you have some in Staffordshire. 

 

More generally spekaing now, I don't often trust these wobbly weekend NWP outputs out into FI and beyond. Also, I hardly ever comment half way through an individual operational run but so far, this looks a good ECM 12z for coldies. 

Edited January 9, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Day 10]

So here are the big three at 144

[Cloud 10]

ECM 144 hrs = 50 shades of blue!

 

[chris55]

Thats an Ice day at the surface for most, easy!

 

[nick sussex]

The ECM a bit half-hearted with that phasing upstream. We want to see that shortwave more developed and as it runs into the Atlantic this would help pivot the PV lobe nw. We want the ne/sw trough formation upstream digging as far south as possible to help drive high pressure ne ahead of it.

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM 144 hrs = 50 shades of blue!

 

Yeah we don't want the gfs solution

[mother nature rocks]

ECM much inline with UKMO and GEM early doors which is fantastic. Can't be long now till the GFS returns to the pack with its tail between its legs.

[AWD]

Everyone's looking at the 850hpa temps at 120, seeing -6c & assuming snowfall.

For what it's worth, IMO, it would be a slush fest of rain & sleet for most as the low is coming up from the Azores bringing embedded moist air with it and therefore high WBFL and dewpoints.

Just my opinion of course, but it doesn't look right for snow to me.

[nick sussex]

Exciting stuff from the ECM! More drama but of the nicer variety, can the high get far enough ne and drive the shortwave se'wards.

[karlos1983]

Still cold at 168 and all eyes to the NW,

 

[london and south east kent]

South east England could get some heavy snow .

[Mucka]

This is a fascinating battle between ECM and GFS both of which have been consistent yet completely different!

Where is your money?

We are now back in the position of Euros V GFS as we were before all the drama unfolded. GFS was proved correct that time so what are the chances it will out perform the Euros twice at such short range?

Personally I favour the ECM when it is consistent at these ranges but obviously we need to remain cautious until GFS gets on board.

 

JMA brings the Azores shortwave into play giving snow for some.

And also give GFS the finger, cracking 144

Given all the output now we would have to think GFS will back down tomorrow.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Mucka

[weather eater]

144hrs and that's good enough for me the rest is just for fun (or not as the case may be). just goes to show just how much small changes early doors can have big impacts further up the line. Nice to see but I would hold off on the celebrations for a while yet.

[radiohead]

2 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

ECM much inline with UKMO and GEM early doors which is fantastic. Can't be long now till the GFS returns to the pack with its tail between its legs.

Some significant differences between the ECM and GEM though. I wouldn't trust any of the models at this stage.