Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

  ukmo better at 120 in mid atlantic with that shortwave gone or more moving towards uk to let hight rises build up in atlantic??

 

And at 144hrs... 

That's odd. Most other models that have got to a similar T120 cut off the northerly at T144. UKMO looks like it has discovered a new northerly instead! Not sure how well the UKMO has verified at T144 for the UK recently, so caution required.

[Catacol]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The models have certainly struggled, but GFS has performed much better IMO.

From a potential long term deep cold spell it now looks like a couple of nights of frost,  wintry showers over high ground in the North for 24 hours or so then back to a Westerly pattern.

Really? How can we judge whether GFS has performed any better when nothing has actually happened yet? The cold spell hasnt even started for those south of The Borders, and yet this is not the first post to claim that the GFS has performed much better. Unless someone has found McFly's time machine I'm perplexed.

And consistently the performance stats dont back this up. ECM remains the best performing model, and has been for some time.

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

That's odd. Most other models that have got to a similar T120 cut off the northerly at T144. UKMO looks like it has discovered a new northerly instead! Not sure how well the UKMO has verified at T144 for the UK recently, so caution required.

pretty much what i was about to post. anyone got any ( sensible ) theories as to how that could evolve?

[cyclonic happiness]

3 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

That's not the way it's going. Regardless, embedded surface cold comes into play. That's not a mild high. 

azores highs are always warm highs at the surface 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Once again we are in no mans land! Everything everywhere. The Icelandic and Norwegian shortwaves are the things to be looking out for in real time and the next day or so. It is pretty much predicated on these little blighters in where we go and what happens. 

If nuking them was an option, I would certainly do so! 

[grca]

GEM at 144hrs looks pretty similar to UKMO as well...

[Mark Bayley]

The GFS develops a shortwave (the mini low), phasing with the trough in the Atlantic at T96 onwards. Thus the HP ridge collapses. In contrast, the UKMO does not do this, thus the ridge is sustained. A good T144 chart, and should pronlong the cold. Will be interesting to see where the ECM goes. Sods law would suggest im better placing my money on the GFS. I live in hope though!

Its been so long since i posted i have forgotten how to embed images!

Edit: Finally hacked it

UKMO, phasing of troughs; GFS troughs phase/ridge collapses 

GEM supports the UKMO, as others have noted. However this model has been flipping around all over. HP collapses over us towards the later stages of the run. Should cold sustain, this is the most likely evolution
 

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Mark Bayley

[Mucka]

UKMO rebuilds the ridge and doesn't phase the energy to the West. It also keeps the Azores low well away so some quite big differences with GFS.

Problem is whether people accept it or not, that UKMO has been playing catch up for some time now and the output has been inconsistent while GFS has now modeled the same synoptic for three or fours consecutive runs and has led the way on developments thus far.

That doesn't mean GFS won't be wrong this time around re the Greenland shortwave but UKMO didn't even have the West based trough at first, then it didn't have the Icelandic shortwave, then it didn't have the Greenland shortwave etc while GFS modeled all of those.

I don't mind people calling UKMO ahead of GFS this time if they want but don't imagine a false reality where the UKMO has somehow been ahead of the game.

The UKMO 144 is entirely plausible and has been well represented even within GFS ensembles but is it still playing catch up? That remains to be seen.

I have no model preference I just call what I see. Let's hope for ECM to show some consistency as the last two runs have held some promise going forward and that GFS is back to its old overly progressive ways.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst of course our trust of the UKMO has taken a knock, it actually does have support.

GEM

That actually isn't too far away from the UKMO at day 6.

I would take this at day 7

Snow showers pushing in from the north sea onto eastern coasts, perhaps something more significant over southern counties.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[seabreeze86]

GEM looking interesting 

Renewed push of high pressure in the mid Atlantic 

 

[carinthian]

4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

That's ok from the UKMO , that may be in a better alighnment. Still chance of Channel Low , wait to see the next fax charts. This a colder run than GFS. Lets see ECM back this one up, I think it will.

 C

When I mean a better alignment, refers to ridge from the Azores. Any wave development over the high would now move from South of Iceland across Ireland along the axis of the NWly jet. Have seen this happen many times, usually produces snowfall across the spine of the country. Well that's another scenario that could develop in the outlook. Still great viewing as this lot starts to show all sorts of sulutions.

 C

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Whilst of course our trust of the UKMO has taken a knock, it actually does have support.

GEM

That actually isn't too far away from the UKMO at day 6.

 

Looks much better than ukmo to me

[bluearmy]

The gem solution not too far from the 0z ecmp re the mid Atlantic/greeny ridge in the mid term 

 

 

 

 

[Daniel*]

16 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

 There is no precipitation when it is cold very disappointing again from the gfs charts  

You missed Thursday! No problem with precipitation there. Significant/widespread snowfall up for grabs, which has been mentioned, by Liam D.

 

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[Jason H]

3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

GEM looking interesting 

Renewed push of high pressure in the mid Atlantic 

 

That's a cracking chart. Like the influence of the Greenland High. Is it "Game Over"? Or, are all the models playing catch up with the GFS?

[Iceberg]

Gfs as been reducing the atlantic energy almost run by run for the last 48 hrs. This time its barely enough to prevent the mid atantic linkage. Gfs is ploddjng back to the euros and gem

Naughty puppy 

[MR EXTREMES]

t850 upper air temps on the gfs really poor....

and the ukmo does not have a sustained block over Greenland.

tbh I don't think much will come of this cold spell,

but then cumbria and other flood hit areas will be happy

[karlos1983]

The difference between GFS and the UKMO/GEM, is how it deals with the energy coming out of Canada. The GFS is making more of it and wants to push it out over the N Atlantic, whereas the UKMO and GEM don't, it goes more north than east. This allows heights in the Atlantic to build on the UKMO/GEM.

 

I think this was highlighted by @nick sussex earlier, in what NCEP thought of the GFS?

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[mother nature rocks]

With UKMO and now GEM looking pretty similar, could the GFS be about to play catch up especially if ECM follows track later on?? Isnt the GEM meant to be a better model at handling the cold over Arctic region??

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mother nature rocks said:

With UKMO and now GEM looking pretty similar, could the GFS be about to play catch up especially if ECM follows track later on?? Isnt the GEM meant to be a better model at handling the cold over Arctic region??

Hmmmm not sure UKMO is going to look much like GEM at 168, its academic at this range but the trough is disrupting at 144 on GEM, it isn't on UKMO.

Just my opinion.:)

[Catacol]

3 minutes ago, grca said:

GEM at 144hrs looks pretty similar to UKMO as well...

GEM and UKMO less keen on moving the ridge away to the NW. GFS continues to return to default pattern. Having just looked at both GEM and UKMO it will be very interesting to see ECM tonight.... I have a feeling we may be looking at a 3:1 split this evening, and a longer spell of cold back on the table. Just a feeling of course... ECM may have other ideas. But we will see.....

 

[peborant]

1 minute ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

t850 upper air temps on the gfs really poor....

and the ukmo does not have a sustained block over Greenland.

tbh I don't think much will come of this cold spell,

but then cumbria and other flood hit areas will be happy

To be honest with you, I would not be too encouraged if I was in your area (English Channel), again you guys need a very specific setup for a pretty snowfall, 2013-style with the famed low on its way to the Continent dragging much colder air behind. This time round though the cold air boundary is higher up, closer to me than it is to you and that's not game for people away from the Highlands. We need to see the jet stream take a plunge into central-southern Iberia and cold will follow!

[IPredictASnowStorm]

8 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

You missed Thursday! No problem with precipitation there. Significant/widespread snowfall up for grabs, which has been mentioned, by Liam D.

It is showing Rain  now on the charts 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by IPredictASnowStorm

[Jason H]

One run from the un-reliable GFS. Don't get hung up on specific runs. Precipitation in these situations is usually <= 24 hours.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

 

Marginal for the S I take it but you're incorrect.