Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Ali1977]

Yeah, these are the GFS ens for next weekend, all look ok or good apart from the Op...some still look awesome for cold.

[northwestsnow]

While the audience awaits the gfs6z i'm hopeful the meto might begin to mention the potential for snow on wed/thur soon.

If they are thinking like the ecm is-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

• http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html
• I think i'd take that run right now to be honest

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

While the audience awaits the gfs6z i'm hopeful the meto might begin to mention the potential for snow on wed/thur soon.

If they are thinking like the ecm is-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

• http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html
• I think i'd take that run right now to be honest

No model is right at picking up the trend all of the time. Let's hope the gfs takes a step towards the euros! 

[winterof79]

looks like its ripe later in the week for some orographic snowfall for east facing slopes of the pennines as systems run across /down the North sea.Note the wind chill too

The North Sea snow machine may get a start up for the first time in a long while

Edited January 9, 2016 by winterof79

[johnholmes]

56 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

For sure there is doubt amongst the various outputs, be that longer term links, anomaly charts, mean charts or synoptic outputs. However, the overall idea initially of a change from the relentless wet weather causing so much havoc and discomfort to so many is going to change. The cold outbreak is showing signs of developing much as suggested 2-3 maybe as much as 5 days ago. It is a slow process due to the reluctance of the upper trough, for whatever reason, to move east. This ensures that the surface features beneath it also take a longish time to edge east to allow the more polar type air to move south. Just how this cold burst was able to develop with so many longer range teleconnections against it is a mystery to my simple mind. But develop it has and was well predicted, from my point of view, by the anomaly charts. They are now not consistent with one another, chiefly the EC-GFS outputs with NOAA staying with its idea of, perhaps, 8-10 days of an upper ridge west of us, and a relatively shallow upper trough east of it, before a more westerly upper flow returns. There is, as yet, no signal for any major deep cold outbreak in my view.

usual links

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited January 9, 2016 by johnholmes

[Ali1977]

No real change on the GFS at day 4 unfortunately.

[The Northern Ramper]

I'd be interested to know if things are still on track for GP's thoughts.

From what I understood he expected things to start showing in the model watching this weekend.

Anything before in my view would be an added bonus.

[Catacol]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Just how this cold bust was able to develop with so many longer range teleconnections against it is a mystery to my simple mind. But develop it has

Medium range indications I think were always pointing to a change John:

1. Tropospheric impacts of the sustained existence of the Kara HP

2. Elongation of the vortex under sustained wave 1, and occasional wave 2, attacks (though admittedly these attacks have not shredded vortex integrity yet)

3. Statistics point clearly to El Nino winters being colder in the 2nd half

4. Sustained strength of the MJO allowing the ENSO signal to be disrupted or perhaps over ridden

5. Forecasted strength of poleward flux encouraging a shift to a -AO pattern.

 

There were all in place prior to New Year.

[northwestsnow]

Personally 6z is a nice upgrade as we head towards thur next week - potential for a decent snow event i would have thought

[Man With Beard]

As mentioned above, snow risk for Thursday shown on GFS 06Z too. Best to use the word "risk" for now as this is still so far out in meteorological terms - I've just noted the consistency of this idea across the models, and its now getting to the T120 stage.

[Polar Maritime]

A better Snow 'risk' for Thursday from the GFS 6z.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Ali1977]

Yes, now me moved on to next Thursday the flow is back from the North, definitely an upgrade on the 00z. Now to see where the WAA goes coming up from the Azores. 

[Catacol]

14 minutes ago, Ramp said:

I'd be interested to know if things are still on track for GP's thoughts.

From what I understood he expected things to start showing in the model watching this weekend.

Anything before in my view would be an added bonus.

Yes - my understanding also. He expected a 3 week lag in the substantial impacts of the surge in AAM peaking 6th Jan, and so in terms of operational model output this drifts closer to op model range as we travel through next week. Agree also that what is happening for next week is a bonus - I dont have anywhere near GP's skill (or that of Tamara)... but the northerly we are about to see was seen as "transient" in that key forecast of a few days ago. The 1983 analogue would ultimately see the HP extend from Greenland across to Iceland with a NE feed over the UK via a north sea trough.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Catacol

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Yes, now me moved on to next Thursday the flow is back from the North, definitely an upgrade on the 00z. Now to see where the WAA goes coming up from the Azores. 

Its a better run Ali- Certainly anyone lucky enough to get a bit of action on thur should keep their cover for a few days as the high builds in.

Definite shift towards ecm on the 6z imho.

[Great Plum]

Compare the GFS 0z and 06z for next Friday morning - obviously FI but a much better pattern and closer to the euros...

 - 0z

 - 06z

[Ice Day]

A definite upgrade from the 6z, much better at 168hrs, wouldn't need much of a shift to get some really cold uppers over the whole country.

Much less flat than the 0z for the same time, so a bit of positive momentum going for coldies this morning!  Let's hope it continues? 

[West is Best]

Yep a slight improvement from the 6z over the 0z. It's quite interesting to run the animated sequence or to scroll fast down the left hand side with meteociel to see how west to east dominated the run remains. This is very different from the much more meridional pattern of ECM and UKMO. Hmmm ....

I wonder if that 'much less flat' (Ice Day) is a sign of things to come? If so then the European models have scored a big hit over GFS. FI currently lies at about T114. All to play for.

Edited January 9, 2016 by West is Best

[Nick L]

This "channel low" we're seeing repeatedly pop up on the EC is really catching my eye. Somewhere in the Midlands could get a decent snow event out of that. Even so, there's certainly nothing mild on the 00z!

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

This "channel low" we're seeing repeatedly pop up on the EC is really catching my eye. Somewhere in the Midlands could get a decent snow event out of that. Even so, there's certainly nothing mild on the 00z!

Absolutely, certainly the theme of the 6z is to prolong the cold still further, colds uppers still just about hanging on through to next Sunday.

6z

 0z

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

This "channel low" we're seeing repeatedly pop up on the EC is really catching my eye. Somewhere in the Midlands could get a decent snow event out of that. Even so, there's certainly nothing mild on the 00z!

Yes i mentioned the midlands being my sweet spot next week Nick

As you say, nothing mild after tomorrow and scope for something nice.Those up north should see precip turning increasingly to snow through wed into thur, certainly places with altitude should see lying snow by the end of the week.

Looks wet rather than white in the woodshed though

[JOPRO]

Big swings again here from the GFS, anyone else think we could be in for a day of upgrades?? I must say this period of model watching has been one of the most fascinating in my 7 years of following this site. As a cold lover in winter so much uncertainty is a good sign as we have seen from December the models are very good at picking up mild set ups for the uk,which to be fair 80 % of the time in the uk  is our default winter pattern. As i have said before uncertainty breeds opportunity for cold.

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06hrs  edging away from its Nightmare on Elm Street 00hrs run.

We want either a quick absorption of any shortwave near that troughing upstream or it to eject cleanly. Either of those keeps the UK with a good chance to extend the cold.

We must not have anything like the GFS 00hrs output!

As for detail with any snow and that shortwave ejected from the Azores low, that's too early to say where exactly it will track.

Its been quite a bizarre few days model wise with so many peaks and troughs, it shows the resilience and fortitude of cold and snow lovers in here who keep dusting themselves down getting off the floor and coming back for more.

I really hope that the UK can get some luck and see some snow and colder conditions.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

It certainly looks cold during the coming week, increasingly so from midweek onwards and Thursdays does show a complex situation with a band of rain/sleet/snow crossing the country. It will take some time to resolve Thursday event, prior to this it looks rather unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain (possibly thundery). 

Those deep low heights really fuelling convection in the Atlantic and the English channel, the risk transferring to north sea coasts by the start of the working week as well. Temperatures will be steadily falling as we progress up to Wednesday. Beyond the event on Thursday we see a north to north west flow with some pretty cold 850s, enough for snow at low levels in the showers before high pressure builds towards the UK during the following weekend.

ECM shows this nicely

Beyond this, we have a tricky situation with the potential to pull the winds in from the east, especially if we can drive the MJO into phase 1.

We see strong heights over Russia with a deep trough between that and the complex ridge over the UK and the Atlantic by next weekend.

Can we cut off the deep cold pool to our east and link those heights resulting in some form of Scandinavian ridge with a bitter easterly developing. It is certainly possible in the longer term, especially if low heights want to transfer westwards towards the Canadian side which leaves our upper trough to our east more susceptible to being cut off. All conjecture at the moment though. Lets concentrate on the next 7 days as there is plenty of opportunities to deliver the goods to many parts of the UK.

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run looks increasingly chilly through the week ahead with some surprise snowfalls dotted around, especially on hills but not exclusively,  the coldest weather further north but chilly in the south too...some of the UK has barely seen a frost so far this season but that looks like changing with a growing risk of frost and ice through the week ahead and favoured areas look like having a nice covering of snow...Good luck to us all!!

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

23 minutes ago, Nick L said:

This "channel low" we're seeing repeatedly pop up on the EC is really catching my eye. Somewhere in the Midlands could get a decent snow event out of that. Even so, there's certainly nothing mild on the 00z!

Indeed, Nick...Just need the right amount of phasing and energy-ejection and, of course these also need to be in the best place...the jackpot may be won? More runs required before we can see the way ahead with better clarity...