Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[A Frayed Knot]

1 minute ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Looks like another night of waiting up to see if the gfs 00z delivers, got a good feeling about this one. ECMWF could be extremely interesting, will it continue the 12z run with bitter cold air close to us? Anything could happen after day 5. It's just a guessing game from there on tbh.

Sorry for this but what time do the GFS 00Z Come out , Mods please delete after my Reply . Thanks

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

1 minute ago, Cloud buster said:

Sorry for this but what time do the GFS 00Z Come out , Mods please delete after my Reply . Thanks

Starts at 3.30am should be done by 5 am

[A Frayed Knot]

Just now, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Starts at 3.30am should be done by 5 am

Thank you Very Much .

[Daniel*]

16 minutes ago, Cloud buster said:

Sorry for this but what time do the GFS 00Z Come out , Mods please delete after my Reply . Thanks

Helpful to newcomers this archived thread: Model Output Update Times

 

[kumquat]

15 minutes ago, Singularity said:

We know the high level of the Greenland ice sheet causes the models issues but could it lead to that sort of thing?

Indeed, 10mb difference touted between model suites in the very near. I imagine the GFS guy in his tent on the Greenland Plateau (blue balls and frost in his eyes) looking up at the Europeans as their helicopter splutters and encounters lack of oxygen issues. The UK guys have just radioed in that they're just gonna make it up and go with the original curry flavour Pot Noodles next to their hexi burners for the night.

[kumquat]

Seriously though, all data is OFF above Nuuk. If it's not wrong, its delayed. If it hasn't had US military clearance, its delayed.

[Mucka]

UKMO coming more into line with the other models this morning.

GFS phases the Greenland shortwave with the Atlantic trough and ends the initial cold before the weekend.

UKMO is better but the Atlantic is poised so the upstream pattern is much flatter than modeled a couple of days ago. Quite a nice clean Norther;y though so it would be quite cold for as long as it lasted I imagine. 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Mucka

[MidnightSnow]

Possible snow Thursday morning? 

[snowangel32]

28 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Feels great being the one saying that the gfs 00z op is better than 18z,

cold next week with ice and snow; marginal in the south 

 

this could be a trend starter but 00z has a stronger Azores ridge but altogether a fairly snowy run so far 

Can't see the improvement if anything it ends the cold sooner and shuts of the Greenland high quicker. Not a good start to the day

Edited January 9, 2016 by snowangel32

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

More runs needed. Never in my life have I seen such a big clusterf**k of runs. The models are all over the place and there's shortwaves and ridges dotted all over the shop. 

Awaiting with bated breath for ECM and later GFS runs throughout the day. Interesting stuff nonetheless. But I'd take anything as far as 72-96hrs with a big pinch of salt.

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Feels great being the one saying that the gfs 00z op is better than 18z,

cold next week with ice and snow; marginal in the south 

 

this could be a trend starter but 00z has a stronger Azores ridge but altogether a fairly snowy run so far 

Can't say I agree with any of that,unless I  still have sleep in my eyes?

GFS is a terrible run, not that it means anything.

[Mucka]

GFS ensemble analysis

 

I don't think I have seen so many different and wide ranging variations at 144h, insane.

There are several issues that are not yet resolved.

The Icelandic shortwave and its implications.

The amplification of the upstream pattern.

The Greenland shortwave and its track

The Azores low and track

The Arctic height profile.

To name but a few and those just out to the mid term.

Oddly though there is quite a good signal in deep FI for another pressure rise from the South close to the UK somewhere near the last week in January. No way to know how this might actually manifest itself if GFS is onto something but some form of strong MLB looks quite plausible, perhaps UK high or a Scandi high. Just something to chew on  while we wait for this hi res mess to somewhat resolve itself.

 

SE England

Clearly the Op has little support for the way it phases the Atlantic trough with the Greenland shortwave

 

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Mucka

[Liam J]

Who upset the GFS!! Horror show really and the GEM looks kind of similar, I worry where the UKMO would go from 144, Both it and the GFS have that 980mb low upstream and looks quite flat but the UKMO has a decent northerly at least... 

Edited January 9, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[rory o gorman]

GFS trying to put the final nail in the coffin ? Shocker..

Although there are a wide range of solutions throughout the suite the op and control are very similar on how they model the greenland shortwave energy and 300mb flow. Of course a disengagement in the subtropical jet  would lead to a much different outcome, but past experience would my give me little faith.

[ICETAB]

Better 850s at 144 from UKMO and ECM, -8 across a large part of the country and more direct  winds from the north. T168 could be interesting, setting up for an eastly perhaps!

EDIT: looking again not quite -8 uppers at 144, more like -6/7

168 is even colder but look like high pressure will be over us come 192, let's see 

EDIT part 2: I've seen enough, by 216 it's trying to reload the cold from the east/ North east, few adjustments and it could get there. I think this could still lead to an epic cold spell. Interesting times ahead 

Edited January 9, 2016 by ICETAB

[Ali1977]

ECM looks quite good friday next week, with the cold lasting well into next weekend 

[radiohead]

T168 ECM looks quite cold.

T192, cold dry conditions.

Edited January 9, 2016 by radiohead

[NO LONGER POSTING]

GFS actual backing my comments in the storm thread about the Atlantic wanting to come steaming through again.

Still plenty of attempts to get cold over us for sure this winter.

All good things come to those that wait

 

 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Surrey

[That ECM]

T144 of all 3. Similarities but little differences make a big difference to many.

[offerman]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

More runs needed. Never in my life have I seen such a big clusterf**k of runs. The models are all over the place and there's shortwaves and ridges dotted all over the shop. 

Awaiting with bated breath for ECM and later GFS runs throughout the day. Interesting stuff nonetheless. But I'd take anything as far as 72-96hrs with a big pinch of salt.

Spot on!!!  Never has forecasting been so               tempestuous! 

I have seen many a stuborn high ( even siberian back in early 90s and 80s , summer azores etc, but never have i seen such a large stubborn ( and high that rebuilds so quickly if it gets briefly disrupted). 

This med high seems to be the cause. 

Not sure if may folk know this but there are around 6/7 very strong inner core magnetic areas on planet earth. One of thise is southern Spain area and surrounding. Now imho this helps bolster more dominant high pressures. This is my theory as to why the azores/med highs are so powerful. 

 

[radiohead]

High pressure dominates on the ECM FI this morning. Extended settled conditions would be great news for areas that have been flooded.

[Great Plum]

4 minutes ago, radiohead said:

High pressure dominates on the ECM FI this morning. Extended settled conditions would be great news for areas that have been flooded.

Obviously all conjecture at this stage, but at least the ECM follows last night's run with another run that has a 'cold high' over the uk at the end and frigid air just to the east of us, albeit with warmer uppers at the end - the south east holding onto the coldest air...

 

the GFS - in its quest for consistency, loses the plot a little and is a mild outlier by the 19th...

 

to to use a well worn netweather cliche - more runs needed!

[Fingers]

-8 uppers slide across the country on the Ecm around t144 then potential for a cold high to set up over the country, at least it would be dry. Maybe cold surface temperatures under that high. Still plenty of time for upgrades! 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Fingers

[winterof79]

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=temp

Looks interesting as the week progresses.

[shaky]

Much better from ukmo and ecm!!!colder and further east!!!gfs looks an outlier after 144 hours!!!game on still!!