Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[nick sussex]

In terms of the shortwave coming off the Azores low its a bit of a catch 22 here. You really want to see it approaching as a shallow feature, not too developed as this could mix out the cold. However with the shallow feature its more likely to track further south.

The thing to look for is the shape of the low, so round football shaped less likely to bring snow. More oval rugby ball shaped more likely. There are of course other factors but that's an easy first thing to spot on the charts in terms of snow chances.

Edited January 9, 2016 by nick sussex

[The PIT]

A better 06oz run and just beginning to get into the reliable time frame. Now to wait for the assemblies too see what the scatter is like.

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

1080mb over Greenland @ T84 on the JMA @Greenland1080

Why do models struggle with modelling over the plateau? That 1080mb is definitely model struggle. 

[booferking]

The GFS assemblies mean keep the colder weather longer than the control.

Edited January 9, 2016 by booferking

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

The GFS  assemblies keep the colder weather longer than the control.

Assemblies???

[shaky]

Just now, booferking said:

The GFS  assemblies keep the colder weather longer than the control.

Brilliant news!!fingers crossed for more upgrades on the 12z

[northwestsnow]

Just now, shaky said:

Brilliant news!!fingers crossed for more upgrades on the 12z

Yes, i'm secretly hoping for the uk high to retrogress to Scandy pulling in bitter easterlies as we head through January

[Polar Maritime]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Why do models struggle with modelling over the plateau? That 1080mb is definitely model struggle. 

There are so many background signals at play when a Greenland High is model'd it's hardly surprising, Especially when it's playing with a 1080mb wopper.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Daniel*]

43 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed, Nick...Just need the right amount of phasing and energy-ejection and, of course these also need to be in the best place...the jackpot may be won? More runs required before we can see the way ahead with better clarity...

Hmm, I suppose this is what Nick is talking about T+114,  it steers ENE into France on this run significant snowfall out that feature. Appears like those thundery biscay lows we see in the summer there's potential. More runs required indeed.  I have never known such volatile output, who said it was going to be dry?  

:

Edited January 9, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, i'm secretly hoping for the uk high to retrogress to Scandy pulling in bitter easterlies as we head through January

Yea the trend seems to be going the right way now hopefully the trend continues and we might get that Scandy activity there is a nice cold pool out there to.

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by booferking

[Shuga ice]

A slight upgrade on this mornings gfs.  I am looking for further upgrades with the possibilities of a Scandi high establishing, drawing in easterlies.  I expect this is the preferred option for most.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea the trend sames to be going the right way now hopefully the trend continues and we might get that Scandy activity there is a nice cold pool out there to.

 

Lets not lead ourselves up the garden path too much. We've seen where that lands us. I'm happy with the 06z from GFS in comparison to the 00z, but I'd like to see it the same or bettered on the 12z and at least some cross model agreement. Then I'll be happy(er)

Edited January 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[Weather-history]

6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

There are so many background signals at play when a Greenland High is model'd it's hardly surprising, Especially when it's playing with a 1080mb wopper.

What I'm saying is, the models always overdo any pressure over Greenland plateau. Its gives an impression that it's a whopper when infact it isn't. You only have to look at it, those isobars look more like contour lines for the Greenland plateau than isobars. 

[booferking]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Lets not lead ourselves up the garden path too much. We've seen where that lands us. I'm happy with the 06z from GFS in comparison to the 00z, but I'd like to see it the same or bettered on the 12z and at least some cross model agreement. Then I'll be happy(er)

I am not trying to led anybody up the garden path just saying the trend is improving thats why i said ""hopefully the trend continues"  

Edited January 9, 2016 by booferking

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

I am mot trying to led anybody up the garden path just saying the trend is improving thats why i said ""hopefully the trend continues"  

I know you're not, I didn't say you.  Wasn't directed at any one person. Not my way.

Edited January 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[Spurry]

Arrived back in England on Tuesday after spending the new year in Western Sweden (where Winter has arrived) , to be welcomed by some amazing synoptic charts however as is often the case things seem to have gone a bit pear shaped. The GFS 06z is a slight improvement on the 00z which does give some cause for optimism , however if the 12z doesn't follow suit then i'll not be putting the shorts and tee-shirts away just yet.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[joggs]

I thought that a Scandi trough was the preferred option going by all the signals previously?

Suppose it goes to show how quickly things can change.

[bluearmy]

Ecmp keeps the upper greeny ridge and the southern stream heads into w Europe late on as the Azores low heads East to our South whilst we sit below a sausage shaped block . fairly settled but cold and low heights headed into Europe would be a bonus re CAA.  the evolution looks unlikely with various narrow upper ridges being thrown up through the run over the n Atlantic  basin.

[Timmytour]

34 minutes ago, booferking said:

The GFS assemblies mean keep the colder weather longer than the control.

 

32 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Assemblies???

That's what I call a good cluster! :-)

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, joggs said:

I thought that a Scandi trough was the preferred option going by all the signals previously?

Suppose it goes to show how quickly things can change.

Still is but has become more scrussian trough as heights have risen nw Europe in week 2.  Pattern could back west again ........

[Summer Sun]

Good agreement till Saturday then the Op and control go on the milder side of the mean for 6 days or so

 

[booferking]

Anyone notice that quite a lot of the GEFS try to rebuild the Greenland high around 120hrs again,

[Frosty.]

The impression I'm getting from the latest models is the cold spell which develops during the course of next week, especially from midweek onwards could last into the following week with a polar airflow becoming firmly established so by far the most wintry weather of the season so far which I know isn't saying much seeing as there has not been any wintry weather in the south yet but that's soon going to change with an increasing risk of frosts and icy patches as well as wintry ppn which won't just be restricted to the north or the hills...I hope the wintry signal strengthens on subsequent model output in terms of depth and longevity of the upcoming cold spell, we coldies deserve it don't we!!

[Day 10]

Could be some fun and games from Wed onward, just purley going by the GFS 6z. Snow possibilities for many.

I could post more, temps continue to drop, snow chances moving south. I think we would be all happy to see snow falling let alone lying on the ground at this stage and then hopefully things get even more interesting toward the end of Jan. Who knows middle to end of next week may turn out fantastic anyway for many, like I've said before we don't need a mega freeze, just cold enough for snow. The ingredients are there

[Methuselah]

Only model-related stuff in here, please...Ask regional questions in the regional threads. Thanks.