Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[doctor32]

  ukmo better at 120 in mid atlantic with that shortwave gone or more moving towards uk to let hight rises build up in atlantic??

 

And at 144hrs... 

Edited January 9, 2016 by doctor32

[Timmytour]

46 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Peturbation 1 v Peturbation 2

For GFS 6z at T180




 

Hope no 2 gets more support from the Op for the 12z....

But it's gone the way of no 1

[Daniel*]

There may be quite widespread snowfall on Thursday leading into Friday eventually for Southern England a recurring theme:

:

Edited January 9, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[lorenzo]

Hmmm...

[Backtrack]

4 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Leading edge wintriness certainly possible though, IF the timing of frontal bands and snow making parameters fall right for folk down South. On teh whole, things are well delayed on the GFS but seemingly we all get the cold we deserve in the end. 

Leading edge snow is always a possibility, but in my eyes pointless. Obviously with -3/-4 upper air profiles in place, the chance of widespread frontal snow is there which doesn't necessarily require the coldest uppers. But in my eyes this is turning into a cold snap rather than a cold spell, according to the GFS  

If it wasn't for such a mild December, this sort of cold spell wouldn't even be exciting 90% of the members on the board. Poor effort, but good reload potential from the east, I guess. 

Im more looking forward to an anti-cyclonic spell, some frosts & sunny days would be nice! 

[mountain shadow]

The models have certainly struggled, but GFS has performed much better IMO.

From a potential long term deep cold spell it now looks like a couple of nights of frost,  wintry showers over high ground in the North for 24 hours or so then back to a Westerly pattern.

[gottolovethisweather]

35 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

True, just looked, but was generally speaking for the uk and surrounding areas they appear to be similar... i'm still learning lol

No shame in that, we all are. Take a global view firstly, especially in terms of mid to long range predictions, then contemplate only the shorter-term timeframes in terms of specifics, i.e whether the accuracy of forecast events will come off as expected. When it comes to snow, our little island needs everything, and I mean everything to be spot on to get that particular precipitation type, especially so should one live near the coast or darn Sarf, as I indeed do. 

Edited January 9, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[cyclonic happiness]

Euroslug incoming at 174.    

I have no toys left to throw out.........

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Hmmm...

NICE!!! I can't see I quick route to warm from there. B.E.A.U.T.I.F.U.L!

i don't think 

Edited January 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[Eskimo]

Remember folks, there are many more models out there showing different things. 

GFS for Thursday

UKMO for Thursday

Edited January 9, 2016 by PerfectStorm

[northwestsnow]

GFS is appalling for snow and cold really.

UKMO looks better but is a sinker at 144 imho.

[rory o gorman]

Bartlett /slug high develops again at 180hrs with a mobile westerly pattern resuming . 

[Iceberg]

Some consistency from the meto gfs has been edgjng towards the euro solution for the past couple of runs but at t144 it has the classic lost puppy look its suddenly realises its lost and is frantically looking for a friendly pattern to follow. Even if it showed -20 850s i would bin it. 

 

[Backtrack]

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Euroslug incoming at 174.    

I have no toys left to throw out.........

That is not a euro high. That's the Azores ridge. It's been progged for days. Its the anti-cyclonic spell that I've mentioned in my above post. 

[gottolovethisweather]

4 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Leading edge snow is always a possibility, but in my eyes pointless. Obviously with -3/-4 upper air profiles in place, the chance of widespread frontal snow is there which doesn't necessarily require the coldest uppers. But in my eyes this is turning into a cold snap rather than a cold spell, according to the GFS  

If it wasn't for such a mild December, this sort of cold spell wouldn't even be exciting 90% of the members on the board. Poor effort, but good reload potential from the east, I guess. 

Im more looking forward to an anti-cyclonic spell, some frosts & sunny days would be nice! 

Sorry BT, only read the first bit so far, pointless and snow doesn't go together in any way, shape or form, I'm desperate.  I'll now read on.....

Edited January 9, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[shaky]

Very good ukmo and upgrades from the 12z!!even gfs is slightly better this evening!!i think it will be a slow crawl back to.cold from gfs!!doesnt seem to know what to do with that shortwave in the atlantic whether to slide it into that troughing around the uk or hold it back!!ukmo ejects it away from that low in eastern canada which is why we get the cold and potentially snowy ukmo!!

[Backtrack]

1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Sorry BT, only read the first bit so far, pointless and snow doesn't go together in any way, shape or form, I'm desperate.  I'll now read on.....

[Froze were the Days]

UKMO really trying to salvage what it can from some fantastic runs a few days ago...but GFS has been the front runner since the end of last year when it has come to nulifying our hopes of cold weather, but how much faith can we put in the 144z UKMO?

[carinthian]

That's ok from the UKMO , that may be in a better alighnment. Still chance of Channel Low , wait to see the next fax charts. This a colder run than GFS. Lets see ECM back this one up, I think it will.

 C

Edited January 9, 2016 by carinthian

[cyclonic happiness]

1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

That is not a euro high. That's the Azores ridge. It's been progged for days. Its the anti-cyclonic spell that I've mentioned in my above post. 

Yes, but it'll probably ridge over Europe and we'll be stuck in southwesterlies with plus 10'c uppers

[IPredictASnowStorm]

 There is no precipitation when it is cold very disappointing again from the gfs charts  

[doctor32]

well i suppose its all eyes on ecm post 144hrs then, still feel that gfs wont be right past this... just my own thought though

[cyclonic happiness]

Just now, IPredictASnowStorm said:

 There is no precipitation when it is cold very disappointing again from the gfs charts  

don't worry about a precipitation chart from 7 days away, it will be absolutely different come the day 

[Backtrack]

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Yes, but it'll probably ridge over Europe and we'll be stuck in southwesterlies with plus 10'c uppers

That's not the way it's going. Regardless, embedded surface cold comes into play. That's not a mild high. 

[HammerJack]

1 minute ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

 There is no precipitation when it is cold very disappointing again from the gfs charts  

I would take that chart with a pitch of 'grit' salt ATM....