Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[radiohead]

No cigar by T150 but you can see how a few adjustments would create a chance of getting the link established. Will be interesting to see if any of the ensembles lean that way. Or perhaps I'm clutching at straws now.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Considering we have seen very mild S,lys, Cold N,lys, Bitter E,ly in the past 12 hrs from the operational outputs then in my opinion the ensembles are a waste of time especially the ensemble mean.  This is a time to only follow the Op and control run from the ensembles.

Surely only to day 7 at most?? then surely going through the whole suite (if one has access) is the way after that, I agree the mean isn't the way as there have been distinct splitting of clusters the last few runs

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Hmmm. Very messy and complex, highly likely to change again on the next run. But this is a slight improvement on the 12Z at this point.

 

Yeah changes every run,  I can't resist commenting but all a bit pointless when it will be different again next run. Was expecting the shortwave to slide more but wants to go more E than S.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Mucka

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Better angle on the deep trough over Canada , still a southeast movement but a slower evolution ,

also this low/short wave south of Greenland having a good negative tilt on it should move across southern England moving into the cold air , all pie in the sky but interesting none the less 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[northwestsnow]

Just now, radiohead said:

No cigar by T150 but you can see how a few adjustments would create a chance of getting the link established. Will be interesting to see if any of the ensembles lean that way. Or perhaps I'm clutching at straws now.

No cigar? Looks a very cold run to me and much better than 12z

[Harsh Climate]

Regardless of what happens now this is a good run because even at just 144h the mild atlantic winds are miles away from were they were on the 12z!, let's not look for specifics, I'm very happy with this run as the freight train South westerlies haven't been ramped up further and this run has backed away from that idea.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Harsh Climate

[Ice Day]

As has been said, maybe we've reached the end of the downgradges, perhaps the 18z's small improvements are the start of 48 hours of upgrades???  Anyway, leaving the ramp aside, in my years of model watching, the inter run inconsistency we've seen over the last few days has really been something to behold. There's so much going on the models cannot get any type of grip, FI is probably 96 hours max.

But if nothing else, ignore the UK, just look at the NH profile.  This is a dream compared to where we were just two weeks ago.  Enjoy the ride whatever the outcome.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

4 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Better angle on the deep trough over Canada , still a southeast movement but a slower evolution ,

also this low/short wave south of Greenland having a good negative tilt on it should move across southern England moving into the cold air , all pie in the sky but interesting none the less 

Or maybe the shallow low will get sucked  northeast with the Azores low moving northeast as well !LOL what a mess

[Nick F]

18z GFS keeps the Azores low languishing longer down there rather than merging it with cyclonic circulation over Nern Europe, so no WAA to west of UK like 12z so cold slower to be diluted from the SW, though that low crossing the Atlantic from the west does drag in less cold air for the weekend.

Models are having a torrid time modelling mslp points west and SW ...

Edited January 8, 2016 by Nick F

[shaky]

Much much better run!!pretty cold aswell next week!!lets hope to wake up to some major upgrades tomorrow morning!!

[JOPRO]

Where is this rock solid consistency from the gfs some keep talking about? to my very ameturish eye every run seems to be heading in a different direction!!!

[shaky]

Just now, JOPRO said:

Where is this rock solid consistency from the gfs some keep talking about? to my very ameturish eye every run seems to be heading in a different direction!!!

Lol wouldnt surprise me if it goes back to showing a big greenland block and colder charts the ones we were seeing 48 hours ago!!

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

18z GFS keeps the Azores low languishing longer down there rather than merging it with cyclonic circulation over Nern Europe, so no WAA to west of UK like 12z so cold slower to be diluted from the SW, though that low crossing the Atlantic from the west does drag in less cold air for the weekend.

If that shortwave does form SW of Greenland there is scope for it to slide further S than shown and then the pattern would be a little further West and better amplified so at 168 could be SW of Ireland instead of as shown here.

That could keep much of the UK in the colder air and give a good snowfall and also be better behind. 

I think this run is extremely progressive from around 120 and there may be a few ensembles that show rather different tale with a similar synoptic.

Pie in the sky though as that shortwave may even be gone next run. 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

Where is this rock solid consistency from the gfs some keep talking about? to my very ameturish eye every run seems to be heading in a different direction!!!

It's rock solid in bring back zonality in low res !

to be fair to it, it's been consistent  out to day 5 thus far which is better than the others.

[TEITS]

The more I view the models the more I am beginning to wonder if the Siberian express could be on its way.

[Nick F]

My goodness, don't think I've seen such a synoptic dog's dinner of lows dotted around as the 18z GFS ... low moving east across northern UK, low coming up from the Azores, deep low moving NE over the NW Atlantic, little ridges in between all these lows ... lol

[snowice]

Well you've got to love the pub run!one minute it's the party pooper, next run its our savour?

No point in writing off any outcome at this stage from what I've seen from18z! Can't make up its mind much better run!

[Carlrg]

Easterlygate 2 anyone?

 

 

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

My goodness, don't think I've seen such a synoptic dog's dinner of lows dotted around as the 18z GFS ... low moving east across northern UK, low coming up from the Azores, deep low moving NE over the NW Atlantic, little ridges in between all these lows ... lol

Indeed. Incredibly complex when you consider the huge changes down the line if some of these lows phase or not, whether they are stronger/weaker or even appear at all. Cannot expect any model output beyond a few days to be of much value now.

[rory o gorman]

1 minute ago, Carlrg said:

Easterlygate 2 anyone?

 

 

90% chance will end with a slug low and zonal . Searching for cold and reading what the models are actually depicting are different things..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, TEITS said:

The more I view the models the more I am beginning to wonder if the Siberian express could be on its way.

Indeed Dave...it's getting rather interesting

 

18z such a better run than 12z and looks ECM like

BFTP

 

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Indeed. Incredibly complex when you consider the huge changes down the line if some of these lows phase or not, whether they are stronger/weaker or even appear at all. Cannot expect any model output beyond a few days to be of much value now.

Agreed would not want to be a professional forecaster right now, even with all the data the next week isn't going to be easy.

Anyway what's this that the GFS wants to give us?

 

[johnholmes]

5 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

another response from me

As a further comment now I've seen the NOAA 6-10 and 8-014, whatever the synoptic models are ensembles show the 6-10 NOAA remains pretty solid (see below) in its  idea for the past 2-3 days, now out to 18th for the ridge to remain along with fairly high +ve values. Not much signal for any real troughing to our east but then, as an average in the last 3 outputs, that has not been a main feature of this model. So we have 'cold' no doubt with snow for some out to at least the 18th. The 8-14 shows, as the last one was trending towards, rather more mobility with about average contour values for the UK for mid/late January. How unsettled it may become agian is not possible to say yet. Nor what effect the probable ex Tropical Storm may have on anything post 6-8 days. They are a feature, as I keep saying, that no model from whatever centre ever seem able to handle at all well.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Edited January 8, 2016 by johnholmes

[bobbydog]

49 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

bearing in mind the snippets of info from the professionals regarding the ECM ensembles, would anyone care to have a little wager that the 18z GFS is at the very least 'hinting' at a scandi high by day 10?

i'd bet my house on it...

can we call this a hint?

it was always a safe bet anway- i don't own my house and i doubt my landlord would have agreed to it....

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, rory o gorman said:

90% chance will end with a slug low and zonal . Searching for cold and reading what the models are actually depicting are different things..

It's almost like you know 

 

 

Also the PV looks real angry after being dominated.

Edited January 8, 2016 by SN0WM4N