Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[A.J]

I propose a game, it's called 'Tired Fingers' and is for a small minority in here.....and it goes a bit like this....

You spend minutes compiling an off topic post, one-liner, or argumentative post, and one of the forum team deletes it with a 1 second, single digit button press.......the one who's fingers get tired quickest gets stopped from posting in the model threads...........any takers?  

Edited January 8, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed. Unsalvageable from there. Heights will respond in a +ve fashion across Europe from there. That HP to the west of the UK has nowhere to go but SE

Not unsalvageable Aaron inasmuuch we just we won't get the rapid onset of lasting N/NE'lies and full blown GHP.

Now look at what ECM throws up at t240

Now with the ridge developing in the Atlantic and possibly another undercut to occur this for would/could lead to a monster set up several days on.  Game not over...plot is thickening

 

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[northwestsnow]

Just a post from NASA to say the tropical low is expected to move slightly further south than previously thpught.

IM not sure what effect if any this will have on the pattern in the Atlantic.

Edited January 8, 2016 by northwestsnow

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Just a post from NASA to say the tropical low is expected to move slightly further south than previously thpught.

IM not sure what effect if any this will have on the pattern in the Atlantic.

Surely that can only be good news for our neck of the woods? The further away the better?

[Cleeve Hill]

25 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Well, it pains me to say but today has been a dreadful day for a prolonged period of cold. Obviously the ECM dangles another carrot, but frankly, anyone chasing that right at this moment has serious will power - I can't be bothered to chase another carrot, another garden path right now. There is no way of dressing it up unfortunately, what has gone from a potentially memorable cold spell has downgraded to a regular chilly spell, cold dry days and chilly nights. 

Something may push in from the East thereafter, but I wouldn't be confident putting a single penny on any of it, especially considering the GFS (the constant trend spotter)  didn't want much to do with it on the 12z. 

Once again, every single thing possible that could have gone wrong with the cold weather getting to the UK - has. I love everything GP has to say, trust him more than anybody on the site in terms of predicting how things can and might change with the atmosphere on this site - however, Steve's point wrt to shortwaves and patterns are spot on. You can have no Vortex and high pressure everywhere around the northern hemisphere, but if you have a shortwave diverting your fun, then it doesn't matter one single jot. 

Have a good one folks.

Like you I have been a big fan of G.P for many years and I know he probably the best medium term forecaster I have come across.

A couple of weeks ago he was talking about a flip in the NAO around 26th Jan so plenty of time and really don't see any reason to doubt this at present. 

The N. hemisphere has a different look to it right now . 

[IDO]

 

So maybe the GFS is the one to follow in this type of set up? The D10 ECM and GFS are in fact very similar except that ECM does its normal party trick of over amplifying the HP cell (3 GEfS have similar profile). The GEM is cannon fodder in these types of set ups, give it 24 hours and it will work out the correct solution. 

[Man With Beard]

Well NOAA still wants a Greenland high (ridge?) of sorts between d8 and d14

[Hull snow]

What is the torpedoe been talked about and I think upgrades to come models just overreacting and get cold in things will be fine 

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well NOAA still wants a Greenland high (ridge?) of sorts between d8 and d14

That's an anomaly and we have to be wary of that at this time of year in that region as usually you have a lobe of lower heights parked in that locale. Best to look at the 500hpa charts to see if it is a block or just higher heights than usual, and I suspect it is the latter. Looking at the isobars there is little sign of a strong ridge and associated trough so that suggests to me no clear signal for a block in Greenland.

[Snowman.]

13 hours ago, shaky said:

Ukmo odd one out am afraid and well done gfs!!!still get some cold and snow before it all goes west based so not bad!!

Gps topedo is end of the month

[chris55]

25 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hehe - interesting, isnt it? Taking the NH view at 10 days our models havent got a scooby. 

GEM holds the GH and maintains the Euro trough:

 

GFS reverts to type with a rebuilt Euro High and low pressure over Greenland:

And ECM goes for a ridge building up in Scandy with a trough ready to scoot west through Europe:

 

It's laughable really that so much passion is expended on this forum on a day like this, when it is so clear that a pattern change is occurring and the models are quite clearly all over the place. 

In addition all 3 models have significant differences in how they are modelling the MJO going forward, with the difference between GFS and the others being massive. If GFS out on its own has correctly modelled the strength of the MJO as it does a loop the loop and remains in phase 8 then ultimately the outlook is far from good as this would suggest the rebirth of the Euro High...

 

But the other 3 models, backed up by text I've just read from the Aussie Met, suggest a decline in the MJO with a movement towards the COD whether it be phase 8, 1 or even 2. 

I'm not buying the GFS interpretation. Cant see a Euro high returning, and as such I'm not too concerned tonight. It's all fascinating watching.

This is a great post.... It's almost like we have to treat the 4 or 5 main runs like super ensemble runs with such differences between them.

would be fascinating to see all the Op runs along side all the ensembles from GFS and ECM plotted on one graph, the scatter would be huge! 

Personaly I'll sit back and wait a little longer to see what unfolds before making any solid judgements  

[IDO]

No surprise that the D10 ECM mean is similar to the GFS with no support for the OP, I would have put a lot of money on that:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

 

So maybe the GFS is the one to follow in this type of set up? The D10 ECM and GFS are in fact very similar except that ECM does its normal party trick of over amplifying the HP cell (3 GEfS have similar profile). The GEM is cannon fodder in these types of set ups, give it 24 hours and it will work out the correct solution. 

Maybe yes, maybe no? But I do not buy into any of these 'I know exactly what's going to happen' notions:

Apart from the models, and those who try to make sense of them, what do we have? We have analogues from previous years, and whatever comes by way of the latest science. The rest, I'm afraid, is guesswork...So, sometimes model predictions prove correct and at other times they do not...But so what? Like all other branches of science, meteorology works like a ratchet: it progresses upward, inch by inch, but never goes backward...

Darwin introduced Evolution by Natural Selection way back in 1859, and even that still it has its detractors. IMO, computerized numerical models are the only way that weather-prediction can really progress. So, let's not be Luddites? 

[Ali1977]

Basically, all models other than the professionals ones handled this period poorly, and now all snow lovers are left v dissapointed after a exciting few days!! Will we get another bite of the cherry before Feb finishes I wonder!! 

[ukpaul]

ECM run in the middle of its ensemble.

[Spah1]

A couple of days ago someone posted the AO graph with the value dropping off the bottom. Anyone got the latest graph. Still very negative???

[Laurence Hill]

58 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well well well - it wouldnt be the UK without a bit of model 'Eastenders'

So the unthinkable has happened - the glorious super -AO & -NAO has gone the way of the pair ( latin -Titicus verticus ) to be replaced by something more ordinary ...

credit to the GFS for its consistency WRT the way its resolved the conflict of energy  over western greenland - with the euros off the mark - it doesnt happen often but when it does its always when forecasting uk cold - typical !!

What we are left with is a messy evolution with no clean entry of cold - just bitty features supporting the colds journey into the UK & towards the elusive south coast -

Without the big chunky Greenland high the drive south will be tempered - a bit like the enthusiam on here tonight -

but its not all lost - the fat lady is just dishing up her spotty dick - & theres time before she clears here throat -

We do still have a push south of the cold air of varying degrees & we do still see a push north of the mild air -

Wherever they meet promises to be a snow event -

However as ever the detail is very elusive - looking at the combined outlook just for the cold air only - in terms of its defined progression south - the midlands - up to the penines would be a good place for an early call to the bookies .....

Thats all that can be gleaned from the models at the moment- anyone forecasting any definites shouldnt be taken to seriously...

 

cheers

S

PS I would still take EcM day 10 over the last weeks of projections from an IMBY POV

 

I always enjoy your posts Mr Murr, but, I must take exception to your Latin.

it should read "Titicae Verticus" - Feminine plural, not "Titicus Verticus" Masculine singular.

long may you post!

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Maybe yes, maybe no? But I do not buy into any of these 'I know exactly what's going to happen' notions:

Apart from the models, and those who try to make sense of them, what do we have? We have analogues from previous years, and whatever comes by way of the latest science. The rest, I'm afraid, is guesswork...So, sometimes model predictions prove correct and at other times they do not...But so what? Like all other branches of science, meteorology works like a ratchet: it progresses upward, inch by inch, but never goes backward...

Darwin introduced Evolution by Natural Selection way back in 1859, and even that still it has its detractors. IMO, computerized numerical models are the only way that weather-prediction can really progress. So, let's not be Luddites? 

I agree, I was just reflecting that maybe in this scenario if you are going to put faith in any model, and of course we can all rightly remain extremely sceptical after D5, then the GFS is more than likely going to handle this better than the others, and that has definitely been the case in the last two days. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

21 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Gps topedo is end of the month

No the result of the torpedo is backend of Jan.  Anyway last from me, in pub watching footie, the outcome is not sorted, yes the super GHP might be off the table-ish but going forward I'm very much not despondent. The rapid onset was  a bonus imo and deep cold is STILL on my card table to play for  before Jan is out

 

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

Just now, IDO said:

I agree, I was just reflecting that maybe in this scenario if you are going to put faith in any model, and of course we can all rightly remain extremely sceptical after D5, then the GFS is more than likely going to handle this better than the others, and that has definitely been the case in the last two days. 

Aye. But do the verification stats support that? No?

[karlos1983]

Well the cold shall arrive next week, which is good, that much we do know. Yeah yeah not the depth of cold we all thrive, but in comparison to the season so far, well there is no comparison apart from they are worlds apart. 

Although I agree that it is disappointing that they have backed away from some Stella "opportunities" that have been shown this week. 

But, we do not know how long the cold May last and we certainly don't know with any confidence what might be popping up next week in terms of the snow we all crave. From disturbance in the flow, channel low, battle ground scenario etc.

i think the post BFTP made a little while ago says it all really, we have lost the first round for the deep cold next week that was progged by the models earlier this week, but this is far from over, do we look east, or north. 

I certainly look forward to finding out.

next week won't be warm!!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

A couple of days ago someone posted the AO graph with the value dropping off the bottom. Anyone got the latest graph. Still very negative???

It could look a lot worse and to my untrained eye still looks negative for the most part with a few ensembles staying negative

Edited January 8, 2016 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Weather Observer]

My take on today's models.

Rather than Shannon entropy it looks like Shannon dysentery with every new model take lmmediately going down the pan. ECM this evening was like find the pea in the three shells trick; you never knew where it would pop up next. And as for GFS it's like a Thomas Hardy novel, too long winded,  starts brightly before everything that can conceivably go wrong does go wrong.

I'm off to fi land where Rupert bear meets Jack Frost in -20 uppers with driving snow. Cheers

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, IDO said:

That's an anomaly and we have to be wary of that at this time of year in that region as usually you have a lobe of lower heights parked in that locale. Best to look at the 500hpa charts to see if it is a block or just higher heights than usual, and I suspect it is the latter. Looking at the isobars there is little sign of a strong ridge and associated trough so that suggests to me no clear signal for a block in Greenland.

No the dark lines pointing upwards towards Greenland indicate north Atlantic ridge, definitely.

[Weather-history]

14 minutes ago, IDO said:

No surprise that the D10 ECM mean is similar to the GFS with no support for the OP, I would have put a lot of money on that:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

 

That chart says to me that a lot of ECM 12z ensembles are going for anticyclonicity over the UK at 240hr. Look at the shape of it for a mean at 240hr.