Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Mucka]

Nobody want a channel low moving into cold air then?

Chins up chaps, we may get some snow out of this at least.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

i know someone said the NWP would be all over the place but seriously, the gfs is the most consistent model at the moment and that's only because it reverts to zonal by day 8! 

[Wivenswold]

Was just about to say what Mucka said. That there is a channel low. Consider that we've got nearly a week to go.

In the shorter term, I think attention should turn to potential flooding in the SE.

 

[Jason H]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Nobody want a channel low moving into cold air then?

Chins up chaps, we may get some snow out of this at least.

That's what I thought when I saw that chart. Synpotically, its a bit of a mess, but still fairly cold.

[chris55]

ECM brings in the potential for some heavy snow on the northern edge of the somewhat weaker approaching channel Low. Pretty tidy if you ask me!

 

Edit....what Muka said!

Edited January 8, 2016 by chris55

[TEITS]

Whilst some are referring to the ECM as dreadful and Game over comments have appeared, I personally would be happy with a chart like this.

[nick sussex]

The output looks a shambles. Incoherent drivel! I wouldn't trust any of the outputs given the complete mess they've made over recent days.

The only concrete trend is that the Greenland high isn't happening anytime soon and we'll have to make do with some scraps.

Whether theres any more drama left in whats becoming a Greek tragedy of epic proportions only time will tell .

 

[terrier]

So we have cross model agreement more or less from the big 3 tonight. Well done to the gfs 18z on Wednesday night for picking up this new signal. Looks like a short sharp cold spell before we're back into the milder air by Friday next week. We see on the ecm tonight what Steve murr feared earlier. And like he said it does now look like it's game over for anything sustained cold wise. 

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Nobody want a channel low moving into cold air then?

Chins up chaps, we may get some snow out of this at least.

The GEFS only had one member with this spin off LP and that died before it impacted the UK. Though they did play with this scenario a few runs back. I suspect the ECM is playing catch up with how the LP system reacts within the jet. At this range realistically a Channel Low is very unlikely.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Whilst some are referring to the ECM as dreadful and Game over comments have appeared, I personally would be happy with a chart like this.

If you want a sturdy Greenland high within the next 7-10 days it's game over....fact. Sorry but scraps of cold don't interest me...moreso after the abomination of December.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Chilly day if not ice day for some southern areas as well as north with snow on ground, just basing it on the ECM, nothing like GFS though

Edited January 8, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The output looks a shambles. Incoherent drivel! I wouldn't trust any of the outputs given the complete mess they've made over recent days.

The only concrete trend is that the Greenland high isn't happening anytime soon and we'll have to make do with some scraps.

Whether theres any more drama left in whats becoming a Greek tragedy of epic proportions only time will tell .

 

If we repeat this all day tomorrow Nick then I'd agree with the last sentence, in reality I don't think it's game over just that its all a bit too soon for the proper hit.   I'm coming back tomorrow for the 12s and view the 00s and 12s for total overview

 

BFTP

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The output looks a shambles. Incoherent drivel! I wouldn't trust any of the outputs given the complete mess they've made over recent days.

The only concrete trend is that the Greenland high isn't happening anytime soon and we'll have to make do with some scraps.

Whether theres any more drama left in whats becoming a Greek tragedy of epic proportions only time will tell .

 

 

True that and it certainly makes a mockery of the idea that the models are much more accurate now and able to deal with anything other than zonal.

Throw anything other than a standard Westerly flow at them and they are all over the place.

Looks like from the medium term will be looking back East for height rises there if we can keep the pattern amplified enough.

A European trough is never a bad thing for future cold prospects.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Mucka

[January Snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, terrier said:

So we have cross model agreement more or less from the big 3 tonight. Well done to the gfs 18z on Wednesday night for picking up this new signal. 

A model that's often rubbished particularly the 18z. We should all take note that the gfs picked this up way before the rest. As for the ukmo...... Imo it's had a cannon fodder week

[joggs]

7 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Whilst some are referring to the ECM as dreadful and Game over comments have appeared, I personally would be happy with a chart like this.

You never know,little slithers of higher pressure may squeeze between the lows.To our West or nw with undercut possible? 

Long shot maybe.....but some of our biggest cold episodes of the past had small,slim high pressures separating lows etc.

Edited January 8, 2016 by joggs

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mucka said:

 

True that and it certainly makes a mockery of the idea that the models are much more accurate now and able to deal with anything other than zonal.

Throw anything other than a standard Westerly flow at them and they are all over the place.

I've been saying this for ages. Is the NWP really that much more advanced than in the 90s? Sure, the resolution has crept up but that makes not one jot of difference if it just makes the mistakes of the modelling 10x more magnified!

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Nobody want a channel low moving into cold air then?

Chins up chaps, we may get some snow out of this at least.

Look at that NH profile - absolutely nothing like projected a couple of days ago!...where have all the huge GH heights gone? and the 'black hole' anomaly charts that went with the mega -NAO profile. Piff paff poff gone!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

 

True that and it certainly makes a mockery of the idea that the models are much more accurate now and able to deal with anything other than zonal.

Throw anything other than a standard Westerly flow at them and they are all over the place.

I fear the ECM will start doing a tease of a different variety!

The models have made an easterly drama look like Downton Abbey! And have turned a normally less dramatic set up shown a few days back into War and Peace!

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, terrier said:

So we have cross model agreement more or less from the big 3 tonight. Well done to the gfs 18z on Wednesday night for picking up this new signal. Looks like a short sharp cold spell before we're back into the milder air by Friday next week. We see on the ecm tonight what Steve murr feared earlier. And like he said it does now look like it's game over for anything sustained cold wise. 

Do you have access to the data which shows cross-model agreement to milder conditions after t+168? Because I don't think there is? 

[Long haul to mild]

I wont deny it's a bit disappointing to where we were a couple of days ago, but there is a cold spell of some sort coming up and I would much rather have this pattern;

 

Than this horror show, just over three weeks ago:

 

 

Lot more promise in the pattern now, and some good signs being touted from the longer range experts too. It's never easy getting cold here, we need to keep being patient.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

cool chart I love high pressure, ice day likely under inversion

[seabreeze86]

A true Greenland high looking of the table but the rest of the detail is all over the place.

Pick the bones out of that mess. 

Ha ha looks like the ECM is going to tease us with a easterly.

Edited January 8, 2016 by seabreeze86

[Summer Sun]

ECM keeps the colder air much further west at t192 compared to GFS

High pressure over the UK as well will be rather cold

Edited January 8, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Rocheydub]

At least the polar vortex is anything but organised. 

 

*crumbs of comfort*

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Please ECM no more! lol

Really not this again!

It's going there isn't it Nick..