Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Polar Maritime]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looking at the output this evening, we've all been led up the garden path.

Well i haven't, It's always been a cold spell with good scope for reloads. With the models continuing to be very skitty into the runs.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

JMA looks a little better than the GFS at T84. Not hugely different, but still better.

Pretty much every model looks better than GFS sub 100, which is when the impact downstream and later on is occurring. On one hand I would be happy with the GFS versus the rest situation, however we must also consider to counter that the issues are towards the GFS home patch and the expectation it will model it better.

Edited January 8, 2016 by TSNWK

[Harsh Climate]

11 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

It seems a lot if people are missing the point. While there is the sort of short term divergence such as is graphically displayed between the UKMO, GFS and GEM, how can we be sure if anything? Everything is far too messy to draw any conclusions. As for upgrades not being likely because of today's output. I don't buy it, with the current uncertainties, I see no reason why not.

Well said . What do people expect, a nice smooth ride with no ups and downs in every upcoming cold spell?? Every good cold spell we have had the models have always flipped a changed run to run in the build up, with the exception of NOV 2010.

 

[marksiwnc]

To be perfectly honest.  I think that due to the norm being pv over Greenland and the block in place instead then this is why the models ALWAYS struggle with these scenarios.  I'm not saying any model is wrong but what I do think will happen is not like the GFS but a mixture between jma and UK met.  We shall see 

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Well haven't, It's always been a cold spell with good scope for reloads.

If you want to think that PM, that's your prerogative. However in reality we have seen a degradation of robust Greenland heights into a complete mess. The charts of a day or two back would have locked us into cold for 2 weeks. Now in 9 or 10 days time we could potentially be locked into a southerly whilst pulling our hair out looking for the tiniest hint of more hope. All the while more valuable winter time passes. 

I thought it was too good to be true that a UKMO 144 chart had somehow picked the right pattern (when at the time the GFS and ECM didn't want to know). 

Edited January 8, 2016 by CreweCold

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Nothing good can be gleaned from the Ops so far.  This potential [and always has been] potential is melting away before one's eyes.  Arguments can be put forward that what we are seeing doesn't mean they are right, as we saw from yesterday to today's change.  So back tomorrow and see what they show then.  Very poor day for cold model watching [except GEM] but a good day for 'model watching' as its fascinating how things change so rapidly in their outlook.

 

Let's go back to the 'discussion' Steve murr had with GP re importance of the hemispheric pattern and the importance of shortwaves.  We are seeing it before our eyes as the battle commences 

 

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Paul_1978]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

so Barry... what's your latest expert analysis....

 

Come on be fair, that's a T+372 chart .

[Chris K]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looking at the output this evening, we've all been led up the garden path. I should have stuck to my guns about what I said the other night. GFS is grim, nothing else to say...a few wintry showers and a couple of frosts that you could get with any old toppler scenario. 

GFS wants us back amongst the plumes!

Ugh I know it'll change at that range but that would basically take us back to December, especially if the PV were to strengthen.

Interesting times with so many changes, but like you said above, it eats up time if it falls flat.

[Methuselah]

Just now, CreweCold said:

If you want to think that PM, that's your prerogative. However in reality we have seen a degradation of robust Greenland heights into a complete mess. The charts of a day or two back would have locked us into cold for 2 weeks. Now in 9 or 10 days time we could potentially be locked into a southerly whilst pulling our hair out looking for the tiniest hint of more hope. All the while more valuable winter time passes. 

No, CC, we haven't seen that at all...We've only seen computer predictions adjust themselves in the light of new data...The cold spell hasn't even happened yet!

[Gazza H]

I'm still waiting for the cold patterns to kick in before I decide what's coming next, most of the experts on here have informed us as such for a week almost now. Out of interest does anyone have any model outputs they can show from 2010 leading up to the big freeze? If not where can I find them? Thanks folks

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

No, CC, we haven't seen that at all...We've only seen computer predictions adjust themselves in the light of new data...The cold spell hasn't even happened yet!

Lol that's what I meant you old pedant!

[johnholmes]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I think what this highlights again is how a shortwave can scupper any cold promise from the long wave pattern.

Remember the NOAA  anomalies from yesterday which was projecting a long wave pattern with a massive Greenland height anomaly and subsequent Northerlies for the UK. In that same timeframe the GFS now offers a Southerly.

It's an argument I've had before with John Holmes,  but those anomaly charts have once again proven useless when a cold pattern is in the offing.

Not sure that they have yet proved to be wrong; the original forecast from them was for a cold spell of 3-5 days. That is still going to occur. What is now in doubt is any longer spell. At no point, but correct me if you feel I am wrong, did I suggest it was to be an intense deep cold. Originally, again, they showed the upper ridge over the UK by about the 3rd day of the cold spell. This appears, on the synoptic models, to ne what may well happen?

Edited January 8, 2016 by johnholmes

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Come on be fair, that's a T+372 chart .

lol ok then-

fate sealed on that chart!

[Danielvn]

 

5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

so Barry... what's your latest expert analysis....

 

 

This place should have a reputation system based on the accuracy of fore/hopecasts rather than whether you like what someone is making up, would be much better.

 

Sure, there was cross model agreement, but the real cold never got within a reliable range and that's why we are where we are.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

15 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

It seems a lot if people are missing the point. While there is the sort of short term divergence such as is graphically displayed between the UKMO, GFS and GEM, how can we be sure if anything? Everything is far too messy to draw any conclusions. As for upgrades not being likely because of today's output. I don't buy it, with the current uncertainties, I see no reason why not.

Absolutely agree , the models are simply toying with different scenarios , and it's gonna take time to get it right, anything after 96hrs is simply guess work at the minute , there is as much chance of these the latest mods been right as there was yesterday . All we can do is try and spot trends , and we do no it's about to turn cold , with some snow for some . The gfs does this time and time again , any model that goes that far out will dramatically loose there way once they get into fi , think how many times we see the ukmo 144 chart verify ? Rarely right , so a gfs chart at t192 has how much chance ? 

People will see snow next week ,and I'm personally expecting upgrades from this point on , Iv model watched for years and this isn't a rarity , the background signals are working , and I know that people find this annoying at times , but I'm a believer in background drivers , and I certainly don't expect the vortex to reform like it does on the gfs , remember each run is only worth the time of day for 10 hours !

[Daniel*]

26 minutes ago, radiohead said:

It certainly moved towards the GFS solution at T96 and T120 in comparison to it's previous runs. It's a bit different to the GFS at T144 but it's almost like it's catching up on what the GFS showed 3 runs ago at this stage.

 

A bit different? v different outcomes... Met Office went largely with their raw data yesterday.

In their fax charts - explain that, can't be that lost? I think the UKMO is more on the ball, we'll see. The evening ECM is going to be a critical one, I think we will see upgrades coming. 

[Mucka]

JMA is actually a fair bit better than GFS which I think is at the very bottom end of the scale for cold.

There are always a lot of mixed signals and crossing of wires in the forum when the output is in a state of flux. We need to differentiate between posts which are just describing what the models are currently showing and Winter is over posts.

 

GFS ensemble analysis 120h

There around 50% of the members showing the Atlantic pushing through the ridge at this stage but of those several are not showing the beginning of a conclusive breakdown but rather a messy wintry mix of rain and snow for some.

Thereafter the majority manage to rebuild at least some Atlantic blocking and the GFS op is very much on the pessimistic side of the output as expected. I suspect the ensemble graphs will not look so depressing.

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Mucka

[IDO]

By D5 66% of the GEFS have cut off the Atlantic Ridge into Greenland, surprisingly some are even more progressive than the op and control!

Mean at D5:    

That is a strong trend from the GEFS and we can now say that the suite is in general agreement on that set up. Expect ECM to follow later.

[Harsh Climate]

Looking at the gfs esembles there are a few very good runs in there so far at 144h, unfortanately the operational run does have a fair bit of support though.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Harsh Climate

[doghouse]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

By D5 66% of the GEFS have cut off the Atlantic Ridge into Greenland, surprisingly some are even more progressive than the op and control!

Mean at D5:    

That is a strong trend from the GEFS and we can now say that the suite is in general agreement on that set up. Expect ECM to follow later.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

By D5 66% of the GEFS have cut off the Atlantic Ridge into Greenland, surprisingly some are even more progressive than the op and control!

Mean at D5:    

That is a strong trend from the GEFS and we can now say that the suite is in general agreement on that set up. Expect ECM to follow later.

And what would this likely result in down the line IDO, serious question? I'm talking about mid-range rather than D10 or beyond.

[bluearmy]

re the NOAA anomaly charts - don't forget that these are 5 and 7 day mean charts. they are never going to show shortwaves or brief changes to the flow. we could easily see yesterdays chart verify over the 5 day period and yet have the azores low zip through the uk and drop six inches of rain on us. looking at current GEFS anomolys, I don't expect a huge difference in todays 6/10 dayer.

[M1245]

9 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

 The evening ECM is going to be a critical one, I think we will see upgrades coming. 

What time does the ECM roll out?

[Chris K]

Just now, M1245 said:

What time does the ECM roll out?

6-7pm until clocks move forward.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GEM to the rescue.....wll just shows...who knows?

 

 

BFTP