Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[coldcomfort]

Not saying GFS is correct, but I think it's fair to say it's inter run evolution out to 168hrs has been reasonably consistent (probably very consistent in the overall scheme of things) since yesterday 18z. Where we go beyond that is anyone's guess, as it still is beyond 72hrs, but you would expect milder weather to follow over the weekend and into the following week based on the latest 168hr.

[Liam J]

UKMO Now showing W/SW flow @ T120 instead of a northerly as on previous runs

 

 

[Day 10]

and 144, clear as a bell lol

[mountain shadow]

Rather embarrassing for the met man who draws the Faxes.  Who would have thought the GFS would smash the UKMET model.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

UKMO Now showing W/SW flow @ T120 instead of a northerly as on previous runs

 

 

Ah - buts it's a cold sou'wester 

[terrier]

Ukmo now moves towards the gfs at t120 expect Ecm this evening to move closer to gfs aswell. Seems like the gfs has picked up this signal since the 18z on Wednesday night. Expect a colder week next week then who knows. 

[syrinx]

UKMO has now moved from Northerly, to a West / SW regime. The backtracking continues from the models.

[Daniel*]

Greenland high on UKMO

T+144

[nick sussex]

Just now, *Sub*Zero* said:

UKMO Now showing W/SW flow @ T120 instead of a northerly as on previous runs

 

 

Yes and now that its found the worst solution it will probably be correct! The UKMO redeems itself at T144hrs but by this time no one really cares what its showing.

[Southender]

Not a good set of 12's thus far. GFS singing the same tune as this morn and the UKMO showing signs of singing the same song.

Cue toy overload in 3...2...1......

Edited January 8, 2016 by Shrimper

[mulzy]

UKMO somehow recovers to produce a half decent day 6 chart after an ordinary day 5 chart!

Treat all output with caution though!

 

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, terrier said:

who knows. 

And that's the crux. Who knows?

Outputs all over the place last 24 hours - surely a strong signal for anything could happen?

Nothing's "Over" and nothing's settled for next week....for sure.

[beng]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

Ukmo now moves towards the gfs at t120 expect Ecm this evening to move closer to gfs aswell. Seems like the gfs has picked up this signal since the 18z on Wednesday night. Expect a colder week next week then who knows. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

Looks like GFS has moved towards ECM at 144 hours - compared to its 0Z and 6Z runs.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

UKMO somehow recovers to produce a half decent day 6 chart after an ordinary day 5 chart!

Treat all output with caution though!

 

When that trough slides under Greenland, we are in a sw flow at 168 though. Nice to see and all that.....But.... meh

[radiohead]

Not what I was expecting to see this time yesterday, or any of us I'd imagine...

[bobbydog]

the icelandic low is not there on the UKMO 120 chart. could this be the issue with the GFS? it seems to be the spoiler rather than the energy coming off the NE US. the UKMO is not as good this run but it could be enough not to close the gap and kill the atlantic ridge. the next frame will tell...

edit- better than the GFS at +144 but still in the balance...

Edited January 8, 2016 by bobbydog

[mb018538]

Crumbs of comfort.....at least the 12z gfs is cold and dry for the medium term!

[karlos1983]

The GEM paints an interesting story,

[Rocheydub]

When the GEFS come out in expecting to see a massive spread from about 72 hours onward. Ms Entropy is singing aloud. 

 

Great at end to the UKMO, so the ECM tonight will as usual, be crucial!

[radiohead]

12Z GEM with a different take on things at T174

[snowray]

UKMO 144h chart back on track.

Was about to say hatchet Job after viewing the T120,

[Mucka]

GFS was doomed to cool/cold snap by 120h as energy was already creeping through from the Atlantic due to the erosion of the ridge from Icelandic shortwave activity and the trough being too far West. Another fly in the ointment is that the models want to develop more shortwave energy on the Western flank at the base of the initial low just SW of Greenland. It is as though the weather Gods flicked a switch and have thrown every possible negative at our cold spell.

UKMO doesn't attack so much with the Icelandic shortwave and is better than GFS but it does still wants to put pressure on the ridge from both flanks and is downgrading from prior output. Seems to be good support for the Atlantic to break through in operational output but not conclusively. 

That means there will be scope for it to stay cold for a few days more but 6 or 7 days is starting to look like the best we can do and we will need UKMO type output to be correct rather than GFS which is now offering a very ordinary 3 day cooler spell.

 

Still time for a change for the better but it is very rare the models Uturn again once they have started to degrade a cold spell.

If they do though we then look to the SW and the Azores low but for now I will be concentrating on the crucial developments out to 120 and hoping ECM is more in line with UKMO because frankly what the GFS is offering is a kick in the teeth given the potential we had.

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Mucka

[syrinx]

6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Not what I was expecting to see this time yesterday, or any of us I'd imagine...

 

The GFS has been picking up this trend for a good few runs now, and the UKMO is sliding towards it. Trends is key, and the GFS is one of the best at it.

Expect the ECM to follow suit on it's next run.

Edited January 8, 2016 by syrinx
.

[Daniel*]

The UKMO has most definitely not drifted alongside GFS!!

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, mulzy said:

UKMO somehow recovers to produce a half decent day 6 chart after an ordinary day 5 chart!

Treat all output with caution though!

 

All that offers is another will it won't it to the trough NW of the UK, will it push East or not.

GFS and ECM ops runs leading the way. Ensembles means useless.