Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

At +84 there is new shortwave just to the West of Iceland - effects of which I dont really know, but I guess it might well fall under the Short wave Drame catergory.. which is not good.

It was present on the 06z, it's just behaving slightly differently and hanging around like a bad smell compared to the 06z on this run.

Edited January 8, 2016 by karlos1983

[bluearmy]

My view on this is that an evolution as we were playing out only yesterday on the ops is now extremely unlikely

we will go cold and perhaps for longer than a few days but the big mid atlantic/greeny ridge with stagnant euro trough looks to be gone now. The trough off te Eastern seaboard closes off the ridge by day 4.5. That's not going to change now

 

[swilliam]

More amplification off the W coast of NA which may hold the low back in the SE from heaading out to sea and interacting with azores high

 

06Z

12Z

 

 

The low is deeper is well so my head further N

 

[Southender]

Door closing on Greenland @114

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Shrimper

[karlos1983]

UKMO +96

 

Not interested in a ticket to the GFS party it would seem....

 

Big differences, doesnt blow up the energy over the pond, doesn't complicate around the iceland locale, brings in the cold quicker. Yes please. remarkably stubborn. 

Edited January 8, 2016 by karlos1983

[radiohead]

UKMO T96 is out. It's better than the GFS, but it has trended towards it in comparison to it's 0Z run. UKMO T120 could still be a good chart though.

[Mucka]

We all need to forget about the Azores low for now and worry about the shortwave energy to the West as that is in the reliable and will dictate whether the ridge holds or not. Yes there will be an attempt to rebuild the ridge but if energy is allowed in from the Atlantic it will be in vain.

UKMO/GFS 96h let's hope UKMO is correct but at least GFS has corrected marginally back East.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO

Unfortunately that's the 00hrs run. The UKMO has backtracked at T96hrs. Not as bad as the GFS but still nothing like as good as its earlier output at that timeframe.

Edited January 8, 2016 by nick sussex

[Yarmy]

UKMO still getting rid of the Iceland shortwave at T96.

 

It's surely wrong?

[Daniel*]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

UKMO

That's from 00z

Here is the 12z not as good...raw windchill though 

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO +96

 

Not interested in a ticket to the GFS party it would seem....

compare to the GFS at the same time.. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010812/gfsnh-0-96.png?12

 

FOUR days out there's such a difference and thus anything from this point is utterly useless

 

EDIT: Apparently that was the 0z 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Weathizard

[irish1]

Big enough shift @ +93 on 12z GFS

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

compare to the GFS at the same time.. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010812/gfsnh-0-96.png?12

 

FOUR days out there's such a difference and thus anything from this point is utterly useless

That's the 0Z UKMO.

[That ECM]

Between t90 and t 114 on the gfs the two highs nearly link. Much closer than on the 06. Had they, the rest of the run would look very different. Still much to be resolved in the short term. 

[mountain shadow]

Still no resolution between GFS and Meto ops runs. I would stick with the ensembles.

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unfortunately that's the 00hrs run. The UKMO has backtracked at T96hrs.

Yup, i posted that by mistake, to many tabs open. But it is still better. Deals with a lot more factors better from a cold perspective.

I guess +120 will give us a better idea.

Hands up if i feel a plonker 

Edited January 8, 2016 by karlos1983

[Carlrg]

The PV is absolutely battered. What will happen is anyones' guess.

 

[mulzy]

Like for like comparison at day 4:

UKMO better - 'better' amplification of the Newfoundland low and less of a shortwave around Iceland - though UKMO has moved away from it's 'clean' solution from last night.

Edited January 8, 2016 by mulzy

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unfortunately that's the 00hrs run. The UKMO has backtracked at T96hrs. Not as bad as the GFS but still nothing like as good as its earlier output at that timeframe.

It hasn't backtracked enough to guarantee its going to scupper things yet but i think i can predict where the 0z run is going to go though.

 

EDIT : it has now though - 120 has completely buggered it.

Edited January 8, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[phil nw.]

The provocative post and the responses have been removed guys-we move on.

[karlos1983]

oh dear, backtrack central from the UKMO @120

Edited January 8, 2016 by karlos1983

[Day 10]

120

[doctor32]

  Uppers much colder for more of the uk @ 144 on gfs compared to 06z run...

 

surely more chance of us seeing something more snowy, mainly from showers.

[Daniel*]

+144,

A bad trend, quite underwhelming:

UKMO +120 a divergence! 

[IDO]

Yes as expected big backtrack by UKMO with the Low disrupting the upper flow and any WAA moderated.

Today:  Yesterday's 12z for same time: