Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Man With Beard]

I think one things for sure - the ECM will be different in some way tonight. There are so many things areas of heights around the pole with little disturbances trying to phase with each other - small margins at T96/T120 will make enormous differences at T168. 

If there's one model to believe it's the ECM - OP wasn't the best for cold this morning but there was still a strong cold cluster in there. I'm expecting closer to UKMO than GFS, for what it's worth.

[terrier]

So what can we say about the models. Well the gfs ukmo show us in a colder pattern next week before milder air moves towards the uk next weekend which is 7 days away so a lot could change. Now onto the ecm similar scenario cold next week then like the gfs brings in the milder air next weekend. Don't really ever thing we was entering a deep freeze. But what the output does show is at least us trending colder next week. And who knows we're we go from here. Hopefully we see glacier points torpedo still come to fruition at some point. Still think Feb March could be our best chance of sustained cold weather. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Not the best model suite tonight. I think we still need more runs to decide how things will pan out though.

As for the GFS suite, well it turns colder by the middle of next week, but with the majority of members seeing the Atlantic ridge sliced in two then we might be looking at a conventional toppler with the remaining area of heights to our west. The coldest days being Thursday and Friday.

The mean still gets the -6C isotherm across a fair chunk of the UK so a north westerly flow with the chance of some embedded troughs and disturbances could still give some unexpected snow events. The north west of the UK looks most favoured, one would consider that payback for the month just gone if it came off.

Of course the models may drag another solution out of the fire in the coming runs so we must remain watchful.

As for the UKMO, it was arrested at the door and put straight in the cells for being in contempt of our own sanity, the GFS will party alone tonight.... of course if it wants to that is 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[chris55]

Consistency is the key in my opinion, we still haven't had a consensus on which weather type will eventually win out. Things could go either way, and until we have a consistent run of charts showing the same thing Ill happily sit back and watch things unfold.

GFS 12z ens are the first set to really push the milder theme in the medium term (along with the op) but with the inter-model disagreements and the scatter on the ens NOTHING is set in stone yet! Will await the 12z ECM with interest.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Not the best model suite tonight. I think we still need more runs to decide how things will pan out though.

As for the GFS suite, well it turns colder by the middle of next week, but with the majority of members seeing the Atlantic ridge sliced in two then we might be looking at a conventional toppler with the remaining area of heights to our west. The coldest days being Thursday and Friday.

The mean still gets the -6C isotherm across a fair chunk of the UK so a north westerly flow with the chance of some embedded troughs and disturbances could still give some unexpected snow events. The north west of the UK looks most favoured, one would consider that payback for the month just gone if it came off.

Of course the models may drag another solution out of the fire in the coming runs so we must remain watchful.

As for the UKMO, it was arrested at the door and put straight in the cells, the GFS will party alone tonight.... of course if it wants to that is 

Despite the general descent down the crapper of this cold spell, I'm not entirely convinced the GFS has a handle on the mid range. That MJO plot is audacious at best and downright ridiculous at worst!

[Gustywind]

Think we have to hope the GFS has overreacted to a faulty mjo prediction, which will correct back the other way over the next 24 hours. Don't think we'll get back to the stellar charts of midweek, but don't buy the sharp swing away from this today.

[shaky]

Can ecm save the day!!!doubt it very much!!!all i can say to gfs is you little beauty for picking that little kink to the northwest and sending it westwards creating this west based nao!!!ecm was late and the ukmo well its all at sea!!!what makes this even worse for cold lovers is everything else barr that pesky little showrtwave to the northwest was all set for a long cold spell!!might change back but my money is on what the gfs is showing at the moment!!

[Great Plum]

6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Consistency is the key in my opinion, we still haven't had a consensus on which weather type will eventually win out. Things could go either way, and until we have a consistent run of charts showing the same thing Ill happily sit back and watch things unfold.

GFS 12z ens are the first set to really push the milder theme in the medium term (along with the op) but with the inter-model disagreements and the scatter on the ens NOTHING is set in stone yet! Will await the 12z ECM with interest.

Ah yes, by the 19th Jan there's a 20c difference in the upper air temps - it could be -10 or +10 - I feel Miss S Entropy is prevalent...

[Daniel*]

Wake up folks 

+96

We may get a link up here

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM 96- narrowest strip of +ve heights akin to an underfed tapeworm 

[Weather-history]

25 minutes ago, Singularity said:

What on earth is GEFS doing with the MJO... it's not a stunt plane, it's a long-distance cruiser!

 

Reminds me of my old Spirograph! That CANM looks a bit odd as well.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

ECM 96- narrowest strip of +ve heights akin to an underfed tapeworm 

If that tapeworm was elongated from Central England up through the pole though I would be happy.

[M1245]

So what are the early thoughts on the ECM?

[radiohead]

ECM and GFS quite similar overall at T96. Some differences regarding the Azores low. UKMO's slightly better solution at this point is again on its own.

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

ECM day 4 is closer to gfs over the n Atlantic than ukmo. 

Ecm/gfs v gem/ukmo

The shortwave left back west of Iceland continues to be the main issue in my eyes.  Makes the neg NAO too west based before it gets going. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, chris55 said:

That's looking pretty tidy to me.......

Point is not enough WAA or separation between the two troughs. 

[Day 10]

120

[Cheshire Freeze]

Game over 

[radiohead]

Again ECM and GFS in broad agreement at T120, with the exception of the low heading northeast from the Azores on the ECM.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Again sensible posts please.

[Mucka]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Game over 

Not quite because there will be an attempt to rebuild the ridge but not what we want to see.

Interesting to see what it does with the Azores low which it has on a Southerly track as well.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

29 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles London (ish) not pretty but the Op was progressive and on the  mild side.

There is only one thing we can say with any certainty based on those GFS ensembles and that is we are gradually going to slide into a cold snell (snap/spell) from Sunday which looks like reaching its peak around Thursday.  

Snow will no doubt be on the menu for some during that timeframe which takes us up to T144 which is where I would place FI at the moment.  After that nothing should be ruled in or out!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Game over 

Look at that extension SE from the LP west of GREENLAND...The extension that Steve Murr says we don't want to see

 

BFTP

[Pembroke Dangler]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Game over 

It's the heights increasing into Spain and Portugal which seems to hault the progress south and east of the shortwave, this is causing it to become stuck around us,  fills and becomes flabby with no where to go. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Look at that extension SE from the LP west of GREENLAND...The extension that Steve Murr says we don't want to see

 

BFTP

Indeed. Unsalvageable from there. Heights will respond in a +ve fashion across Europe from there. That HP to the west of the UK has nowhere to go but SE