Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[bluearmy]

The GEFS AO went negative 4 on the 12z. Previous runs had been bit lower. The ECM 00z was neg 5 at its lowest point.  The 12z out within 20 mins

[bobbydog]

17 minutes ago, IDO said:

That's an anomaly and we have to be wary of that at this time of year in that region as usually you have a lobe of lower heights parked in that locale. Best to look at the 500hpa charts to see if it is a block or just higher heights than usual, and I suspect it is the latter. Looking at the isobars there is little sign of a strong ridge and associated trough so that suggests to me no clear signal for a block in Greenland.

actually thats a very good point. those posters referring to the 'black holes' on the anomaly charts should note that the GFS is for example, showing a 1055mb high localised to greenland itself as is often the case. it doesnt qualify as the 'greenland high' we are looking for

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

No the dark lines pointing upwards towards Greenland indicate north Atlantic ridge, definitely.

I agree - not very marked but an upper ridge nonetheless. that's a 7 day mean though so picking out the detail is fraught with pitfalls.

the spread on the uppers on ECM ens reveals that there are plenty of options still on the table. The spread on the thickness says the Azores low heads ne just to our west at day 10.  we can look forward to plenty of varied ops over the next couple of days I reckon. 

[Spah1]

"@MattHugo81: Game on from the EC ENS 12Z run. Wish I could share images but can't. Less spread than GFS and cold well into following wkend. We shall see"

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Spah1

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

actually thats a very good point. those posters referring to the 'black holes' on the anomaly charts should note that the GFS is for example, showing a 1055mb high localised to greenland itself as is often the case. it doesnt qualify as the 'greenland high' we are looking for

Black holes are predicated on dam, not slp Bobby. 

[northwestsnow]

22/23 MOGREPS keep the cold in place through next weekend

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

22/23 MOGREPS keep the cold in place through next weekend

How do you have access??

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Spah1 said:

How do you have access??

I don't - but someone on TWO does

PS thats fantastic news- could we be about to see a swing to cold

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

22/23 MOGREPS keep the cold in place through next weekend

Is that a tongue in cheek remark..... Or a flat guess

Edited January 8, 2016 by karlos1983

[bluearmy]

The ECM op also keep surface cold in place next weekend so why we should be surprised that the ens and MOGREPS do the same seems a tad odd.  Anyway - no doubt we'll be sunbathing on tomorrow mornings ops! 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Assume uv seen a tweet...or its tongue in cheek?

Its genuine

[bobbydog]

here you go- and the NAO

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

"@MattHugo81: Game on from the EC ENS 12Z run. Wish I could share images but can't. Less spread than GFS and cold well into following wkend. We shall see"

 

Great news

Haha I was just about to the post^^

You folks are too quick there are no definites! as I've highlighted many times.  

La upgrades are coming you watch...

[Scandinavian High.]

Very happy the wet weather what we have had for a long time is slowly coming to a end with much colder weather next week with some frost and snow for some then later next week in to the weekend I think the cold will hang on with winds coming from the east very cold and dry the west may be little mild at time east stays cold and dry with frosts..

[mulzy]

DeBilt ECM Temperature ensembles significantly better than this morning!  Has the fightback begun?

http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

[Team Jo]

Little bit of context to one liners and rumours would be most useful folks, links? Charts? 

Thanking you...

[feb1991blizzard]

Sorry to dampen the mood but we already know the cold will last next weekend, the problem is theres a lot of marginality, I bet my life that the EPS / MOGREPS are not that different from the GFS. Its depth of cold and after next weekend that's the problem now.

Edited January 8, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

DeBilt ECM Temperature ensembles significantly better than this morning!  Has the fightback begun?

http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

Look a bit meh to me  quite a lot of milder clustering long term.

[Nouska]

Excellent agreement between control and deterministic for Reading.

[Karl83]

I think is the source of the info from MH

Please delete just seen already posted

Edited January 8, 2016 by Karl83

[Catacol]

14 minutes ago, IDO said:

 if you are going to put faith in any model, and of course we can all rightly remain extremely sceptical after D5, then the GFS is more than likely going to handle this better than the others, and that has definitely been the case in the last two days. 

Model verification stats generally do not back this up, so I am curious as to why you think this.

[bluearmy]

Plenty of high anomolys around nw Europe on the extended eps so no surprise to see de bilt with cold members.

The scandi trough  pushed East. 

[Captain Shortwave]

The control run from the ECM goes very cold. That could surely only be an easterly flow, I'm sure one of those who can see the ensemble suite can confirm that

Overall, the ensembles tend to push any remaining ridge across the UK at around day 9/10 cutting off the cold flow, albeit remaining chilly at the surface with bright days and frosty nights. In reality it isn't too bad even though it is a big step back from the patterns we have seen over recent days. Conditions do look marginal for snow at the moment, so if we stay as we are it will be a case of picking up disturbances in the shorter timeframes and analysing them.

I personally feel that there is a lot of mileage and of course drama to come. I don't think we have seen the end of the model swings yet.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Spah1]

2 minutes ago, Karl83 said:

I think is the source of the info from MH

 

You'll have to teach me how to embed a tweet like that. 

[Methuselah]

Right peeps, it's time for the 18Z...So close the windows, I don't want to see any teddies, rattles or Sticklebricks flying past my window. Unless they are my own!