Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I fear the ECM will start doing a tease of a different variety!

The models have made an easterly drama look like Downton Abbey! And have turned a normally less dramatic set up shown a few days back into War and Peace!

Absolutely, ECM definitely setting up for an FI Easterly attack, don't think I could take another Easterly drama after all this LOL.

[IDO]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Please ECM no more! lol

Really not this again!

Yes it wouldn't be ECM if it didn't blow up the HP at D8-10?

[booferking]

Is this an easterly what were about to see.

[Harsh Climate]

ECM 168-192h doesn't seem bad to me at all!

 

I think there may be an easterly or northeasterly about to come

[nick sussex]

Just now, CreweCold said:

It's going there isn't it Nick..

I shouldn't but can't resist this!

MJO phase 1 composite anomaly positive ENSO:

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Crewe  you said it was game over at T120

It is in the reliable! 

[Day 10]

Here we go again

[doctor32]

yes the models have changed alot over past couple of weeks and will do so again in the next week and the week after etc... thats what makes this so intersting. Although i love snowy weather in winter like the majority on here i do feel we llok to far ahead and worry when it will end before the cold spell even starts and miss out on the finer detail of what may happen between now and next weekend... looking at the charts i'm certain quite a few will see some spells of snow with lying snow possible and the chance of widespread snow later in the week when systems/fronts bump in to the colder air. 

Think we should all look for chances of snow this week and worry about the weather after next weekend closer to the time as it will change from what it is showing at present

 

 

[Harsh Climate]

And the thing about the ECM, no Southwesterlies! We are seeing everything but the kitchen sink been offered up on the models, huge amount of uncertainty and potential at this early stage.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Jason H]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It is in the reliable! 

T120 is not in the reliable IMO.

[snowangel32]

 I wouldn't kick the ECM out of bed looks to be setting up an easterly attack it's such a tease. Anyone got some spare Prozac lol

Edited January 8, 2016 by Polar Maritime
There you go.

[damianslaw]

Probably sound like a broken record, but its always best to stick to the reliable timeframe when it comes to model watching, usually 144 hrs tops, more often 120 hrs, and in changeable periods such as now as low as 96 hrs.

In the reliable timeframe all the models are showing a change to colder conditions with a flow from between north and west, something we haven't seen so far this winter - a refreshing change then.

A whole array of factors will determine how things pan out ultimately -

• Location and depth of energy off the NE USA seaboard i.e. how much amplification takes place, GFS always keen to shunt energy into the mid atlantic, even at the end of Spring when we see the atlantic at its quietest..
• Position of Jetstream, it is programmed to shift northwards after next week, which would tie in with Met Office thoughts.. of the atlantic trying to break through..
• How quickly the trough ejects to our SE early next week, a quicker movement will aid development of stronger heights over mid atlantic joining forces with Greenland heights, a slower progression as forecast by GFS, gives time for energy off the NE USA seaboard to spill into the atlantic squeezing out the development of heights towards Greenland
• Shortwave activity
• Orientation of heights over North Pole

Lots and lots of factors. If we do end up with only a few days of cold weather and the atlantic breaks through again, we do have a very different northern hemispheric synoptic pattern, and it by no means equals a return to the conditions of Nov-Dec, indeed mid atlantic ridge development could easily establish itself again very quickly.

[Cloud 10]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The output looks a shambles. Incoherent drivel! I wouldn't trust any of the outputs given the complete mess they've made over recent days.

The only concrete trend is that the Greenland high isn't happening anytime soon and we'll have to make do with some scraps.

Whether theres any more drama left in whats becoming a Greek tragedy of epic proportions only time will tell .

 

 

Lol,you have to laugh really.

 

Imagine trying to make a fax chart out of the ECM 120hrs.

 

 

 

[Harsh Climate]

ECM 216 is not far off from the Beast from the east, who wants a dry northerly anyway?? ; )

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Harsh Climate

[Mucka]

ECM would still be cold at the surface 216 with some places still having snow cover from the channel low and threat of a reload from the east.

So if the Atlantic ridge is to fail we have seen GFS give us the worse case scenario and ECM give us the best case scenario - take your pick.

But remember UKMO not quite on board with the Atlantic ridge failing so easily.

[A.J]

right.....just been browsing through the past several pages of posts, and you wouldn't believe how many posts have been hidden/binned for either being off topic, not aiding the discussion, provoking a reaction or one-liner despite numerous friendly requests and nudges from the forum team........so I'll be a little less friendly, a tad more direct just to see if the message gets across........*ahem*

stay on topic, refrain from one-liners, stop moaning and no troll posting.....or else!

[Rocheydub]

At 216, that low should slide under, dragging cold air from the continent.... Academic at this range of course, and typical of the ECM!

[Snow and storms]

I think we could be looking at the wrong areas for our cold. We are all focused on the greenland and artic link up but i think now everything seems to be shifting west slowly every day. If this keeps happening i can see the high pressure ridging up over the kara sea being far more important. If this keeps expanding it will push the cold pool over scandi right over us. At least thats what im hoping, we could always end up in the middle of the two and lose out but overall with the amount of waa that is and has been pumped into the artic i think our overall chances of seeing a prologned cold spell sometime this winter are better than most years.

[tight isobar]

Ecm contains cold throughout. .

And no prizes for guessing it final evolution.

Quite a dire mess throughout today.

With some plausible evolution. .

But more confused than the 'plausible. 

But cold-not "bitter" 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Yeh its game over all right

 

It'll be completely different next run- that's day 10! I was on about day 4-5 big difference!

[nick sussex]

LMAO! you really couldn't make it up.

So we've had the Icelandic shortwave drama and the ECM wants to now deliver yet more trauma!

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It'll be completely different next run- that's day 10! I was on about day 4-5 big difference!

You wouldn't have said that if it had shown the mild south westerlies though, you would have said game over..

[mb018538]

Sadistic chart of the day goes to the ECM:

Almost all of the USA and a massive portion of Europe chucked into the deep freeze....the only place in the bulge of slightly warmer uppers is the UK AGAIN. Couldn't make it up really. There are also no polar or greenland heights left at all by 240....I mean what has happened in 2 daysto go from some charts showing an AO off the scale to this. So disappointing.

[Mucka]

Meanwhile JMA blows up the Azores low but has a strong Greenland high

[Yarmy]

CC is simply pointing out that it is GAME OVER for the Greenland high. It's dead, stone dead. 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to the perch 'e'd be pushing up the daisies!
'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile!!

Long live the Scandi High!