Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Captain Shortwave]

I was about to say something similar, the pub run at least gets back to something like the ECM solution, though nowhere near good enough at the moment. 

Still we need a big turnaround tomorrow, in particular to see whether there is any significant change in track of Hurricane Alex and other elements upstream.

It is not a done deal by a long shot yet.

Edited January 14, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[essexweather]

The problem is people are over analyzing each model run. With two (in some cases four) model runs a day and members interpreting things differently, no wonder this place is in confusion this evening.

This morning, 00Z MOGREPS had 60/65% support for the cold to hang on until next weekend - hence the public output from Exeter of the cold persisting into the medium range period. Now, based on the 12Z run of the same model+ensembles, we are around 45/50%.

There are sig. differences in each of the models ensemble suites from T+72hr, so that is where we should be looking up to on the global models for now. Until Alex has undergone extratropical transition, the models will continue to bounce around with different ideas.

Let's see what the midnight runs bring :-)

[Timmytour]

Jet stream comparson   12z T126                    v                   18z T120

           

[Nick F]

24 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:

Not sure if this is right,  but after a bit of research I think this would be the first hurricane / trop s to hit Greenland since records began if track is correct .... This is anyone's guess For conquencies 

 

Alex would be extratropical by the time it got near Greenland, so no.

18z GFS doesn't look a great deal different from the 12z on Tuesday, though the jet on the 18z is slightly further to the south, will it adjust further south still before that raging jet streak emerging from the U.S. catches up across the Atlantic?

[nick sussex]

You've got to laugh now the GFS 18hrs run is trying to eject that low at T120hrs. Further south and its game on for snow!

If the low tracking towards the UK can dislodge itself cleanly from the upstream trough then things could take an interesting turn.

Edited January 14, 2016 by nick sussex

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Confused now

 

@Ashleig95425772 oh & incidentally: slower retreat of cold *still* signalled by 12z UKMO-GM Parallel Suite; JMA; & MOGREPS is split 50-50... latest tweet by Ian F
 

I'm not sure where the confusion lies really, the cold more likely than not WILL break down however the timings of this is still very much up for debate, I be surprised if the UKMO in the morning sticks to its guns but it still may show a slower retreat to milder weather.

[Blake]

Minor positive changes I see in the 18z...

12z  18z

Heights impoving over GL and weakening to our S and SE. Seems to be less energy out west. 540dam a good 400m further south.

If similar improvements occur on the 0z, what we may see on the 18z could end up another 400m further south yet again. Unlikely but not impossible? I wonder if it would be possible for the low out west to end up sinking towards the med forcing HP north over Scandi?

Straw clutching at it's finest. Exciting though.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You've got to laugh now the GFS 18hrs run is trying to eject that low at T120hrs. Further south and its game on for snow!

TBH, Nick, the GFS can try to 'eject' whatever it wants to wherever it wants. It's what the weather does that interests me.

[Bristawl Si]

Seems like the charts posted in last 10 mins *may* just explain why Ian F's post in the SW thread effectively advises caution re fast changes. All to play for......maybe.

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You've got to laugh now the GFS 18hrs run is trying to eject that low at T120hrs. Further south and its game on for snow!

If the low tracking towards the UK can dislodge itself cleanly from the upstream trough then things could take an interesting turn.

As I said earlier Nick, I think the ECM run tonight looks plausible and that unfortunately we will have to endure a milder spell in the medium term. Would sure be something of a minor miracle if the UKMO leads the way on this one IMO. However, it would certainly earn the right to act like this if it's correct

[Geordiesnow]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You've got to laugh now the GFS 18hrs run is trying to eject that low at T120hrs. Further south and its game on for snow!

If the low tracking towards the UK can dislodge itself cleanly from the upstream trough then things could take an interesting turn.

You might want to laugh at it but apart from the usual run to run variation which you expect at that range, the trend is clearly the same as the previous run, Atlantic low come crashing in quite early and the onslaught of proper mild air waiting in the wings for mid week.

As I said though, the real proper mild air is still far out to know whether it will hit or not but no doubts the trend is clear that it will turn less cold next week with the possibility of a very mild dome of air for this time next week. 

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

TBH, Nick, the GFS can try to 'eject' whatever it wants to wherever it wants. It's what the weather does that interests me.

Yes and if the GFS ejects the low cleanly with no attachment of low heights to the upstream trough then your weather gets a lot more interesting! So I'm not sure what your point is, the synoptics which verify on the day dictate the weather we have.

Furthermore using your logic we may aswell shut down the model discussion and just look out of the window or watch the BBC forecasts. The whole point of this thread is to discuss possible synoptics, and their impact on the weather we might see.

Edited January 14, 2016 by nick sussex

[kumquat]

Interesting wedge of High Pressure in the GIN at 144:

 

[leemondo]

Don't post here often as I have no idea how to read the charts, but I enjoy it all the same!

I would suggest people don't get hung up too much on the output at the moment, as even the met office peeps are saying it's all in no man's land, but hey, what do they know eh?  

I know it's good to talk about what's being shown and all the if's and but's, but.......... when a hurricane show's up in January for the first time in almost 80 years, it will throw a rather large spanner in the works! especially when the exact track and ramifications are unknown.

For now, it's cold, and getting colder for a few day's, let's see what Alex does and what that means for our wonderful little island

Thanks everyone for the input, laughs and hair pulling that this thread provides  

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

You might want to laugh at it but apart from the usual run to run variation which you expect at that range, the trend is clearly the same as the previous run, Atlantic low come crashing in quite early and the onslaught of proper mild air waiting in the wings for mid week.

As I said though, the real proper mild air is still far out to know whether it will hit or not but no doubts the trend is clear that it will turn less cold next week with the possibility of a very mild dome of air for this time next week. 

There clearly are doubts as pointed out on the 21:55

[Blake]

12z  18z

 

HP building over Siberia...?

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes and if the GFS ejects the low cleanly with no attachment of low heights to the upstream trough then your weather gets a lot more interesting! So I'm not sure what your point is, the synoptics which verify on the day dictate the weather we have.

Furthermore using your logic we may aswell shut down the model discussion and just look out of the window or watch the BBC forecasts. The whole point of this thread is to discuss possible synoptics, and their impact on the weather we might see.

Not at all...It's just that the weather has the final say. The models are always playing catch-up?

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

6 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

You might want to laugh at it but apart from the usual run to run variation which you expect at that range, the trend is clearly the same as the previous run, Atlantic low come crashing in quite early and the onslaught of proper mild air waiting in the wings for mid week.

As I said though, the real proper mild air is still far out to know whether it will hit or not but no doubts the trend is clear that it will turn less cold next week with the possibility of a very mild dome of air for this time next week. 

The ironic thing is that any 'win' by the Atlantic next week is actually looking less and less mild with signs that the reinvigorated jet is heading South.

So if the Atlantic does break through we may not warm up much if at all!

[Gazza H]

6 minutes ago, leemondo said:

Don't post here often as I have no idea how to read the charts, but I enjoy it all the same!

I would suggest people don't get hung up too much on the output at the moment, as even the met office peeps are saying it's all in no man's land, but hey, what do they know eh?  

I know it's good to talk about what's being shown and all the if's and but's, but.......... when a hurricane show's up in January for the first time in almost 80 years, it will throw a rather large spanner in the works! especially when the exact track and ramifications are unknown.

For now, it's cold, and getting colder for a few day's, let's see what Alex does and what that means for our wonderful little island

Thanks everyone for the input, laughs and hair pulling that this thread provides  

sorry, couldn't help myself 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

FAX for monday looks good, cold/dry, not like GFS

[essexweather]

New fax charts:

T+96: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVM89.TIF

T+120: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVO89.TIF

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not at all...It's just that the weather has the final say. The models are always playing catch-up?

Of course the weather has the final say but this is called the model discussion thread for a reason! The clues in the title! Lol!

Oops its called the model output discussion! LMAO anyway you get my point.

Edited January 14, 2016 by nick sussex

[johnholmes]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes and if the GFS ejects the low cleanly with no attachment of low heights to the upstream trough then your weather gets a lot more interesting! So I'm not sure what your point is, the synoptics which verify on the day dictate the weather we have.

Furthermore using your logic we may aswell shut down the model discussion and just look out of the window or watch the BBC forecasts. The whole point of this thread is to discuss possible synoptics, and their impact on the weather we might see.

True to a degree Nick but to take you up on your first sentence.

How likely is this, as you put it, 'If GFS ejects the low cleanly...'

How likely is this in your view. And, pardon me asking, which low are you talking about please?

 

 

Edited January 14, 2016 by johnholmes

[Banbury]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Of course the weather has the final say but this is called the model discussion thread for a reason! The clues in the title! Lol!

Indeed , thoughts on the latest Faxes Nick?

[Nick L]

FAX charts are certainly at odds with the GFS and EC. Causing me right headaches for next week.