Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Banbury]

14 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I'm predicting Atlantic in by Tuesday. Latest tweet sent 43 minutes ago, I guess after the afternoon MOGREPS had been dissected

 

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather
@Foxelms no worries. Increasing signs the cold will be shunted away early next week, so we will *eventually* lose these 'awkward' forecasts!

Oh dear , that says it all for me

[snowbob]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

No idea what's going-on with the quote function, but:

My view of the 'good news-bad news' is as follows: good news - nobody knows what's about to happen...Good news - nobody knows what's about to happen...

That for me sums up this whole model saga.

that is the point.

no one knows how this is gonna go everything is flipping back and forth. Amazing model runs from every run. Curve balls from every model this week.

This could actually be model watching that people talk about for years.

remember (2016 winter ) you never know.

Edited January 14, 2016 by snowbob

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

Alex Deakin explains why so much model uncertainty next week .. on tonights 5 day forecast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35319682

well that was certainly an interesting watch, but it's hardly clear cut is it lol

[Froze were the Days]

14 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Think this shows nicely why all models are say nah I'll take the weekend off!!...to be honest if a hurricane in Jan ruins our cold spell...we might as well pack up

 

And I'll say it again, never seen a winter with so many lows developing from such southerly latitudes when the PV was quieter...in general not helping us at all in the search for cold- November and December saw several episodes of depressions forming and moving in a generally north or north north east direction. Just hope this isn't a growing theme in winters ahead.

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

well that was certainly an interesting watch, but it's hardly clear cut is it lol

Far from clear

[shaky]

Which is higher resolution nam 12km or 4km?!!which one should have a better handle of the situation?

[Chris1986]

Not sure if this is right,  but after a bit of research I think this would be the first hurricane / trop s to hit Greenland since records began if track is correct .... This is anyone's guess For conquencies 

[SMU]

GFS initialises the hurricane east of 12z plots -

by 24 this starting position is manifesting in the fact that the track is taking it further east of main low in the atlantic reducing the phasing - remember weather is about timing...

remember track changes at T6 by 50 miles become 400 miles at 120.....

s

[Matthew Gill]

24 minutes ago, Tim Brawn said:

so tonights snow through the cheshire gap , was this picked up by the models , don't remember seeing it mentioned anywhere , not mentioned by the MET until a few hours ago , makes me wonder just how we know what might hppen at 120+

 

 

I mentioned it this morning ☺lol

 

 

 

[snowbob]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS initialises the hurricane east of 12z plots -

by 24 this starting position is manifesting in the fact that the track is taking it further east of main low in the atlantic reducing the phasing - remember weather is about timing...

remember track changes at T6 by 50 miles become 400 miles at 120.....

s

So would that mean gfs and ecm 12z over eggd the positioning steve

[shaky]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS initialises the hurricane east of 12z plots -

by 24 this starting position is manifesting in the fact that the track is taking it further east of main low in the atlantic reducing the phasing - remember weather is about timing...

remember track changes at T6 by 50 miles become 400 miles at 120.....

s

So a good start!!!!!!lets see what happens!!

[bryan629]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

well that was certainly an interesting watch, but it's hardly clear cut is it lol

No , Not at all.. i was hoping to see his flow charts for the week , i think we get to see mondays chart though.. 

The warm air out in atlantic is going to have a real hard job shifting embedded cold air by the looks of it , depends on the jet direction as well.. 

To Be honest, im still dwelling on Tamaras post yesterday about the models not realising how strong the (Quote) `` poleward Pacific tropical convective wave flux signals and extreme torque forcings on the atmospheric circulation adding up to a sky high +AAM state.``  actually are. 

She then went onto say something about the models are somehow being drip fed this information... ( i do realise i could have mis-interpreted though and could be wide of the mark) 

 

[phil nw.]

Ok,with the 18z GFS soon coming out just a request to please stay on topic.We have had to remove a few banter type posts which really added nothing to model discussion.

A reminder to please use the other threads where appropiate -it does help everyone to read about the outputs if we don't have to work our way through off topic stuff.

Cheers all.

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Ok,with the 18z GFS soon coming out just a request to please stay on topic.We have had to remove a few banter type posts which really added nothing to model discussion.

A reminder to please use the other threads where appropiate -it does help everyone to read about the outputs if we don't have to work our way through off topic stuff.

Cheers all.

Added to this, if your post begins with "Off topic but...", or "Apologies for being off topic" - please don't post it.

[A Frayed Knot]

Fergies reply to a Member in the SW Thread ...

9 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Anybody see our Fergie's latest tweet looks like the colder weather is going to shunt east more quickly early next week. Suspect that mid atlantic hurricane has scuppered our cold block. Hoping tonight is not our only bite on the snow cherry

looks like.... but still unconvincing. 12z UKMO-GM Parallel Suite very different to UKMO-GM Op.... and joins JMA and GEM in slower return to mobility. Equally, MOGREPS is split 50-50. Folk suggesting 'it's all over' are wayyyy too premature. To cite UKMO briefing from an hour ago: " It is highly likely that further marked, and impactful changes in model output will occur in the lead up to the weekend – this probably magnified by ex-Alex being absorbed into the mid-latitudes..."

[Geordiesnow]

18Z continues with the progression of the Atlantic coming in theme, I was looking forward to sunday being nice clear crisp and cold but it could be rather grey now unfortunately! 

Now its a case on this run, will the really mild air come in or not? It be hard to back against it at this range. 

[Timmytour]

Lookng for differences in the early stages....can't see any offering hope of a dramatic turnaround.  Though at T72 there is a colder pool to the north east on this run which might end up giving us something to cheer in the latter stages of the run

[Banbury]

Confused now

 

@Ashleig95425772 oh & incidentally: slower retreat of cold *still* signalled by 12z UKMO-GM Parallel Suite; JMA; & MOGREPS is split 50-50... latest tweet by Ian F
 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Are we locked in the cold possibly by 100 hours..?? Systems tracking south ..what do u think folks?

[Carlrg]

5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Confused now

 

@Ashleig95425772 oh & incidentally: slower retreat of cold *still* signalled by 12z UKMO-GM Parallel Suite; JMA; & MOGREPS is split 50-50... latest tweet by Ian F
 

Shows it in the 850 charts.

 

[nick sussex]

18 minutes ago, shaky said:

Which is higher resolution nam 12km or 4km?!!which one should have a better handle of the situation?

The 4Km would be better. These hi res models are very expensive to run because they need a lot more computer resources. For this reason you're unlikely to see outputs past T84hrs using them, and generally they are more region specific. At least the GFS 18hrs has backtracked upstream and its trough formation/orientation has trended towards the UKMO/GEM.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z stopped on netweather? prefer using it to meteociel, 

[SMU]

A nice atep back from the GFs from its 12z shallow solution - now moving to ECM territory-

not enough for a full swing to UKMO but happy its moving back-

remember let the theta E charts be your friend

as a reault in one swoop instead of the ejecting out NE towards Norway its now held back over scotland - look how far south East the cold has come out of Norway-

* remember 2 or 3 more eastward corrections of alex will pull that cold air all the way back -

12 t96

 

18z t90

S

[Hammer]

6 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

18Z continues with the progression of the Atlantic coming in theme, I was looking forward to sunday being nice clear crisp and cold but it could be rather grey now unfortunately! 

Now its a case on this run, will the really mild air come in or not? It be hard to back against it at this range. 

As example of slower progression compare 1pm on 18th January on 12z & 18z.. Colder uppers 100m+ further West..

[Gazza H]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

18Z stopped on netweather? prefer using it to meteociel, 

Im having the same problem at +54