Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Gazza H]

So wee tropical eck heads north towards SW greenland picking up plenty cloud/moisture on the way. The "tail whip" from wee eck would be carried by the strong jet straight over the UK by sunday. The 850's look good, the minimum temps look good, would this be a snow dump? Be gentle I'm new to this 

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm control looks identical to the op and 10 day ensembles go generally very mild. Ecm says alex scuppers uk cold. Thanks alex! Never did like that name!

I'm sure we'd all love to put the blame on Alex.

I can understand why its being viewed as public enemy number 1, of course if we had more margin for error then it wouldn't be much of an issue.

As it is Alex is quickly absorbed by the troughing to the west. If this hurricance was moving ne then it would have a bigger impact on any ridging to the n/ne.

There are issues upstream with the pattern in the ne USA and some marked differences with the depth of low pressure and how this phases with the troughing.

Its not a coincidence that both the UKMO/GEM have similar views of the ne USA and downstream have more favourable trough disruption of the first shortwave.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

When is this TS due to get into the mix?  No doubt I can look into it and find out but quick answer helps my laziness...and current lack of time

 

BFTP

[essexweather]

Here are the extended 15-day ECM ensembles from the 12Z. Can't really argue with the trend, definitely going mild next week:

[Penrith Snow]

Interesting that the last occasions that Hurricans formed in the North Atlantic during Winter was January 1955 and January 1978.

Both these winters had very mild Decembers but notable cold spells from mid January onwards.

Coincidence?

Andy

[SnowBorder]

Well I'm sure the pub run will resolve everything. T168 will be perfectly nailed and verified by the 18z - lol! 

I always view the models but rarely post. I have to say that I can't remember viewing such model disagreement over such a long period, which is why I am commenting. The normal roller coaster ride would have been finished by now. 

I'd love the UKMO to be right as I'm a cold lover and mighty proud of our little United Kingdom, but I feel a mixed solution is the likely outcome. GFS and ECM continue to dispute the UKMO, pushing the block of cold east. Trending milder next week I suspect, albeit that will be average temperatures. Hoping for some deep cold and snow later this month or next. Chin up all, it's just the weather. Cheers 

 

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'm sure we'd all love to put the blame on Alex.

I can understand why its being viewed as public enemy number 1, of course if we had more margin for error then it wouldn't be much of an issue.

As it is Alex is quickly absorbed by the troughing to the west. If this hurricance was moving ne then it would have a bigger impact on any ridging to the n/ne.

There are issues upstream with the pattern in the ne USA and some marked differences with the depth of low pressure and how this phases with the troughing.

Its not a coincidence that both the UKMO/GEM have similar views of the ne USA and downstream have more favourable trough disruption of the first shortwave.

Any news stateside about the validity of the ukmo/gem view of that phasing Nick?

[nick sussex]

Theres good news and bad news from the NAM, to just add to the confusion.

The NAM 18hrs run now backs the GFS 12hrs run in terms of low pressure over the ne USA.

The NAM Hi-Resolution 18hrs run backs the UKMO/GEM view.

 

[Djdazzle]

Oh, you can almost see a pub run special coming up!

[swilliam]

25 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Not really, because Alex loses identity/merges with a deepening normal depression in 48 hrs, well before that strong jet streak emerges from the U.S.

Looking at the 12z EPS postage stamps, majority in agreement for an Atlantic break through from Tuesday / t+120

 

 

Not sure I would agree the majority show this (and if it is only a small majority). There are 6 clusters (plenty of uncertainty) with cluster 1 including the det and 3 (the worst) showing Atlantic going through. The other ones all show some ridge in different places (2 is to the NW and zonal coming underneath, 4 with the ridge over the UK or to the N of it and zonal coming underneath, cluster 5 with it to the E but probably about to collapse and 6 with ridge over the UK but more to S maybe collapsing a bit later). So there are plenty of options and no clear majority. This evidenced by the spread with many prolonging the cold longer by a couple of days compared to the OP. Admittedly they all go mild after this.

Edited January 14, 2016 by swilliam

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Theres good news and bad news from the NAM, to just add to the confusion.

The NAM 18hrs run now backs the GFS 12hrs run in terms of low pressure over the ne USA.

The NAM Hi-Resolution 18hrs run backs the UKMO/GEM view.

 

Thanks Nick. So there are two 18z NAM runs? And do the us state forecasts shed any light on the ukmo/gem solution? Sorry for all the questions

Edited January 14, 2016 by blizzard81

[Eskimo]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Theres good news and bad news from the NAM, to just add to the confusion.

The NAM 18hrs run now backs the GFS 12hrs run in terms of low pressure over the ne USA.

The NAM Hi-Resolution 18hrs run backs the UKMO/GEM view.

 

To sum this up for those just coming into model watching. We have a stale mate with possible outcomes (mild/cold). The resolution for this is as followed...

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Just now, essexweather said:

Here are the extended 15-day ECM ensembles from the 12Z. Can't really argue with the trend, definitely going mild next week:

There are still a minority that stay cold though even if you take those ensembles at face value, I don't think we can say it will definitely turn mild next week.

In addition to that, we have the UKMO output to consider and bearing in mind my local METO forecast up until Monday says cold and bright with severe frosts and not even a hint of any breakdown from the West, we are almost in an unprecedented position here given this evening's output from GFS and ECM!

I can only think that it is Alex that is causing such massively varying output, but having said all that I am siding with the UKMO this evening!

I also believe that even if we do eventually get a breakdown, it will be a snowy one followed by a diving jet and a fairly swift return to blocking to our Northwest.

Time will tell...

[bobbydog]

could the mod who deleted my posts please have the courtesy to pm me to explain why. as i genuinely dont know why. thanks

edit- apparently not.

for anyone remotely interested, my original question was to nouska, asking her opinion as to the likely effects on the weather itself rather than the chaos it may cause to the models. i thought this would be interesting to know as we could then see how the models react to the input data as the storm event unfolds in real time. i never recieved an answer as my post was quickly deleted and as yet i have not had an explanation as to why.

@Paul

Edited January 14, 2016 by bobbydog

[Essex snowman]

My optimism has now faded I want this cold snap to go and get milder air arrive then hopefully it will be short lived and maybe a proper easterly sets in oh we can pray can't we 

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Oh, you can almost see a pub run special coming up!

I'm predicting Atlantic in by Tuesday. Latest tweet sent 43 minutes ago, I guess after the afternoon MOGREPS had been dissected

 

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather
@Foxelms no worries. Increasing signs the cold will be shunted away early next week, so we will *eventually* lose these 'awkward' forecasts!

[Tim Brawn]

so tonights snow through the cheshire gap , was this picked up by the models , don't remember seeing it mentioned anywhere , not mentioned by the MET until a few hours ago , makes me wonder just how we know what might hppen at 120+

 

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Hammer said:

 

No idea what's going-on with the quote function, but:

My view of the 'good news-bad news' is as follows: good news - nobody knows what's about to happen...Good news - nobody knows what's about to happen...

[nick sussex]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Thanks Nick. So there are two 18z NAM runs?

Yes! lol The NAM I think is run at 12km horizontal resolution. The NAM Hi-Res at 4km horizontal resolution.

[bluearmy]

Btw, UKMO did pretty well on my bird compared to the other

48 hour chart

 

The T144 output from Sunday .

UKMO/ECM/

GFS/GEM

 

 

we are hoping that UKMO is going to make the pace for T144 again but it maybe a hope too far this time

[Mark Neal.]

http://www.cyclocane.com/alex-spaghetti-models/ & http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurricane-Alex?map=ensmodel Spaghetti models on there predictions of where Alex will end up!

Edited January 14, 2016 by Mark N

[blizzard81]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Yes! lol The NAM I think is run at 12km horizontal resolution. The NAM Hi-Res at 4km horizontal resolution.

Thanks Nick

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I'm predicting Atlantic in by Tuesday. Latest tweet sent 43 minutes ago, I guess after the afternoon MOGREPS had been dissected

 

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather
@Foxelms no worries. Increasing signs the cold will be shunted away early next week, so we will *eventually* lose these 'awkward' forecasts!

Well, that sorts that then lol. What most already knew after the 00z and 12z runs of today.

[bryan629]

Alex Deakin explains why so much model uncertainty next week .. on tonights 5 day forecast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35319682

[Hammer]

Hard to have confidence in anything at the moment when in space of a few hours even the pro's are saying first model chaos to then increasing signs of trend.

Personally giving models a break for a few days.