Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[northwestsnow]

Looks very much like this hurricane is causing all the problems!!

Hopefully it will tilt things in our favour for cold chances, ecm will be interesting hopefully it will drop its sinking block for the ukmo undercutter!!!

[A Frayed Knot]

Fergie's post from the South West forum .     Bizarrely, someone yesterday or today on a thread even suggested the tropical feature 'wasn't a key player'. It's THE key fly in ointment. Pump tropical moisture north via a very rare January hurricane/tropical storm into our wintry latitudes and then just sit and watch the models go beserk. Latest UKMO-GM just one potential outcome of many (albeit looking a very interesting one for the snow lovers, at some point).

 

[chicken soup]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I thought someone had hacked the GFS computer when I saw its output, astonishing change within the T72hrs timeframe.

If this stupid tropical storm has indeed caused this drama then really someone has it in for cold and snow lovers in the UK because it seems its just one thing after another, with variables popping up determined to derail any snow prospects.

I think the swear filter may need to go into super mode if that GFS is anywhere near being correct!

Yes nick if our cold and snow which we have battled  so hard to achieve is scuppered by an occurrence that hasn't happened since 1938, then I'm afraid it's time to give up.

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, shotski said:

Hi CC

how do you know ? Obviously you have access to Glosea 5. 

I feel if that's the case the best part of winter could be yet to come. 

Last month the Jan/Feb/Mar chart was showing the same anomaly so we can probably assume the scenario shown could be prevalent during Feb. 

The upshot....I don't foresee any Atlantic encroachment lasting for any significant length of time. It's against a myriad of background drivers, seasonal models and the thoughts of the pros on here. Infact as we head towards Feb we could be seeing a culmination of factors converging to (hopefully) produce a potentially very cold month. I think this is something the likes of Tamara and  GP have picked up on.

Edited January 14, 2016 by CreweCold

[Purga]

The UKMO run is consistent with the parallel MetO run last night (ie zonality returns, but south of the UK).

MOGREPS keeps the HP to the north as opposed to GFS/ECM.

METO seem to favour this solution as per their updated forecasts today

The effects of the 'hurricane Alex' are really throwing the models, however the view of the professionals give reasons to be cautiously optimistic.

ECM awaited with interest although I don't expect it to make the picture significantly clearer!

[northwestsnow]

Well one things for sure we wont have to wait long on the ecm to know what it makes of it all, the key stage is VERY early!!!

The 12 GEFS suite is pretty much 95% sure the Atlantic will be in by mon/tues!!!

[SMU]

No more tongue in cheek....

 

so a definate swing back to a better scenario from the models tonight - ( EXC GFS) most notables are of course the UKMO

& if you live in the SW / south of the UK then the aperge scenario sees slider 1 running out of steam in situ over that area so a nice little snow event there-

There is one thing on our side here - The GFS resolution of tropical storms is pap ( remember the thread on here ages ago when the ECM pwned the GFS on track )

well based on that tonight the ECM 72 I dont think ive ever seen go wrong...

so this is it- ECM coming up- its a biggie....

Edited January 14, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Hammer]

Per Fergie. Could all get v interesting. Tropical moisture pumped high into our northern winter climes is a recipe for model chaos.

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No more tongue in cheek....

 

so a definate swing back to a better scenario from the models tonight - most notables are of course the UKMO

& if you live in the SW / south of the UK then the aperge scenario sees slider 1 running out of steam in situ over that area so a nice little snow event there-

There is one thing on our side here - The GFS resolution of tropical storms is pap ( remember the thread on here ages ago when the ECM pwned the GFS on track )

well based on that tonight the ECM 72 I dont think ive ever seen go wrong...

so this is it- ECM coming up- its a biggie....

So it appears Steve that you are in full trust with the MO..!?do you see the Atlantic breaking through at all next week?

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, baxybaxy said:

I'm an infrequent visitor to the forums.

Last time I came here a few days ago, you were all talking about a Greenland high.

Now it's all about a Greenland tropical storm....

What next?

If theres a chance of snow I'm sure something else will intervene like a meteor hitting the planet! Off now to hide behind the sofa whilst the ECM comes out!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

If theres a chance of snow I'm sure something else will intervene like a meteor hitting the planet! Off now to hide behind the sofa whilst the ECM comes out!

As steve says nick. This is an absolutely critical run tonight- we are fast reaching the tipping point.

To undercut or not!!!

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As steve says nick. This is an absolutely critical run tonight- we are fast reaching the tipping point.

To undercut or not!!!

Already differences between the ECM and GFS at T24hrs! lol

[Man With Beard]

Now this is pure forecasting joy - complete discrepancy at T72. I'm sure this only happens so drastically when cold is on the scene near the UK!! It would be mad to call a winner just yet but I am influenced by this thought - if it were the UKMO showing mild at T96 and the GFS showing cold, I think I would be tempted to side with the UKMO. Which tells me I should lean towards the UKMO this time too. No science here, just a hunch!

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No more tongue in cheek....

 

so a definate swing back to a better scenario from the models tonight - ( EXC GFS) most notables are of course the UKMO

& if you live in the SW / south of the UK then the aperge scenario sees slider 1 running out of steam in situ over that area so a nice little snow event there-

There is one thing on our side here - The GFS resolution of tropical storms is pap ( remember the thread on here ages ago when the ECM pwned the GFS on track )

well based on that tonight the ECM 72 I dont think ive ever seen go wrong...

so this is it- ECM coming up- its a biggie....

That is true.  I am pretty sure ECM wiped the floor with GFS regarding the track of Hurricane Sandy a few years back as well so fingers crossed tonight's ECM backs the UKMO!

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, Singularity said:

If only we still got to see UKMO jet stream charts. I'd love to see what it makes of things at +72 and +96.

I must say, the expected Alex track, with that slight hook left, does look like a block-reinforcer to me, much as Sandy was in 2012 for example - though that was a more extreme hook left I know.

Jet stream charts don't go beyond 72 hours and NH not updated as yet - Europe view.

 

[Singularity]

The low off Newfoundland looks deeper on this run so if Nick's theory is correct...

UKMO and ECM side by side at +72. ECM not as neg-tilted but otherwise a lot of similarity.

 

Edited January 14, 2016 by Singularity

[Lukesluckybunch]

I suspect the ecm will follow a similar trend to the recent gfs,I believe it's the most likely outcome.but I do really hope I am wrong here!

[ukpaul]

ECM also similar to the plucky little NAVGEM at t72.

 

 

[shaky]

Ecm looks good at 72 hours same as ukmo preetty much!!

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

The low off Newfoundland looks deeper on this run so if Nick's theory is correct...

UKMO and ECM side by side at +72. ECM not as neg-tilted but otherwise a lot of similarity.

 

The GFS really weakens that low upstream but although the ECM is better its phase point could be better. The GFS 06hrs run is better than the ECM for the same time. Its nervewracking stuff!

[northwestsnow]

 

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm looks good at 72 hours same as ukmo preetty much!!

Looks like gfs to me- Dont think we will see a ukmo run shaly

Edited January 14, 2016 by northwestsnow

[SMU]

ECM 96 is looking messy 

more UKMO than GFS though 

but importantly it is a backtrack towards the UKMO.....

Edited January 14, 2016 by Steve Murr

[warrenb]

Nope, residual energy there, it is going GFS

[nick sussex]

I will explain a bit later with charts why that low upstream is important for how much energy spills east. Because the pattern is so finely balanced these small things relatively on a global scale can make a big difference to the UK where the cold/milder boundary will set up.

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Looks like gfs to me- Dont think we will see a ukmo run shaly

 

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 96 is looking messy 

more UKMO than GFS though 

but importantly it is a backtrack towards the UKMO.....

 

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm looks good at 72 hours same as ukmo preetty much!!

 

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Nope, residual energy there, it is going GFS

Only in this thread.  lol.