Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Snowman.]

GFS says F it and brings in the mild air from W with very little in terms of snowy breakdown. Even for the GFS this is poor.

 

[SMU]

Wow T96

GFS awful

UKMO amazing on sider one - ( I wonder what the 72 looks like )

so 18 hours after saying Phase 1 was resolved & phase 2 starts

we are none the wiser....

only the UKMO tweets from Ian perhaps laying a bit more foundation that MOGREPS supported UKMO....

S

 

[northwestsnow]

GFS is so different to ukmo at just 96 its comical!!!

GFS12 is also dramtically different to 6z !!!

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

I can never in all my time ever remember difference like this at T96! INCREDIBLEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

Never mind +96, try +72 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Wow T96

GFS awful

UKMO amazing on sider one - ( I wonder what the 72 looks like )

so 18 hours after saying Phase 1 was resolved & phase 2 starts

we are none the wiser....

only the UKMO tweets from Ian perhaps laying a bit more foundation that MOGREPS supported UKMO....

S

 

Steve- is that a cut off icelandic high forcing the undercut?

[SMU]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Steve- is that a cut off icelandic high forcing the undercut?

It is For the first round ....

lets see the 120 next to see how strong it is !!

s

Edited January 14, 2016 by Steve Murr

[The Northern Ramper]

The difference between the two models at 96 is mental, what a standoff!

[Daniel*]

Staggering the divergence at just 72hrs.

[SMU]

There is no UKMO 84 however the Aperge model ( used by met ) at 102 00z ( now 90 at 12z) looked like this

which if thats the case the UKMO would be a snow slider

 

[karlos1983]

Is that Trigger I see riding south, Nice 120 from UKMO

Edited January 14, 2016 by karlos1983

[SMU]

No more from me for a while

120 - another slider

mmmm

EDIT: ALSO UKMO AT THAT TIME FRAME A CONTENDER FOR -20c OVER SCOTLANDERVILLE

Edited January 14, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Hammer]

Is there any reason why posters don't comment when they show a chart? It is quite difficult to understand whether there is no comment because your speechless or no comment because there is just a keenness to post the chart.

[radiohead]

0Z UKMO on the left, 12Z UKMO on the right...

[bluearmy]

so the day 6 ukmo will be a biggie. in reality it doesn't mean a lot as the detail will change but coldies need to see the meandering system mid atlantic undercutting the ridge if only to keep spirits up

[ALL ABOARD]

 

GEM not as good as UKMO but even that looks at the GFS and tells it 'go home your drunk'.  GFS miles out on its own, someone call it a taxi.

Edited January 14, 2016 by ALL ABOARD

[Daniel*]

V interesting with Alex expected to intensify near the Greenland region perhaps dragging up more WAA with it, UKMO may be right here.

 

 

[doctor32]

 gem @96 and ukmo @96 

[Neilsouth]

18 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS simply cannot seriously be taken as a serious model for our part of the world in blocking situations. 

It is monumentally poor.

It cannot be taking seriously in ANY situations, people keep saying blocking, but how many times have I seen year after year, explosive low pressure systems! So many times people have said " Oh dear that looks bad if that happens ", " If that low hits, it could cause devastation ", and a part from a bit of wind or a different direction, it's vastly different.

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

0Z UKMO on the left, 12Z UKMO on the right...

As for the GFS

  

 

UKMO has shifted the patter further north. GFS has a 970 low approaching Scotland/North England. Honestly haven't got a clue here.

[cowdog]

3 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

V interesting with Alex expected to intensify near the Greenland region perhaps dragging up more WAA with it, UKMO may be right here.

 

 

Could be key but it seems GFS has Alex modelled very wrongly as per current observations. Its currently <980mb yet GFS has it above 1000mb.

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

V interesting with Alex expected to intensify near the Greenland region perhaps dragging up more WAA with it, UKMO may be right here.

 

 

Surely that means the block will hold?  If it wasn't to hold the Hurricane would be absorbed into the Jetstream heading West to East? 

[Rocheydub]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

0Z UKMO on the left, 12Z UKMO on the right...

And 12 hours further on!

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

As for the GFS

  

 

UKMO has shifted the patter further north. GFS has a 970 low approaching Scotland/North England. Honestly haven't got a clue here.

I just cannot see that low pressure ploughing directly Eastwards into the dense cold air on the continent!

GFS has to be wrong surely?!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Im not posting the 144 ---- dont look dont look !!!!

I guess its not good !!! Had a feeling ukmo 120 was beginning to move the atlantic in ..

[Mucka]

UKMO 12z almost showing the pattern I was talking about earlier setting up with the elongated trough (sliders) moving Se from the Atlantic into NW Europe but we don't quite get enough blocking to produce a cut off Icelandic high/ It does look like a potentially snowy run (general synoptic, these charts won't verify 100%) for some though (more South and West) starting from around the 18th. Details would be hard to pin down even 24h and this is just another different option with the models really struggling though.

GFS disrupts the trough less and as a consequence produces shortwave energy heading NE around Iceland between 48 and 72h which weakens the ridge and allows for the seemingly large divergence we see in the later time-frames with UKMO.

IMO GFS is too progressive and UKMO, now it has dropped the over optimistic blocking, may be on the right track with regard to disruption and distribution of energy in the 3-5 day time-frames

It is quite a challenge picking out the correct pattern with all the models in such a state of flux though.

Whatever ECM shows we won't really be any the wiser but I have a feeling it will something like UKMO tonight.

Edited January 14, 2016 by Mucka