Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Bogman]

Wonderful debate.

No idea what anyone is talking about, but fascinating just the same.

Its like watching a politicial debate in here at times.

Edited January 14, 2016 by Bogman

[Nouska]

If a hurricane (Bertha August 2014) can blow the models out of the water in mid summer - think what a hurricane can do to models in mid-winter.

A bomb going off when hot tropical juice hits southern Greenland

For illustration purposes that heat source at 24 hours is moving north to very cold temperatures.

Edited January 14, 2016 by Nouska

[A.J]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I just can't see the ECM being that far off AJ. I'm already looking for FI trends in terms of the next cold spell.

the thing is though bud, if, for example, Ian F & his meto colleagues are of the opinion that Hurricane Alex has thrown the model suites into a state of flux, then all bets are currently off in terms of looking beyond the medium term for any longer scale trends?......I'm not saying your wrong bud, rather playing devil's advocate 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, ajpoolshark said:

the thing is though bud, if, for example, Ian F & his meto colleagues are of the opinion that Hurricane Alex has thrown the model suites into a state of flux, then all bets are currently off in terms of looking beyond the medium term for any longer scale trends?......I'm not saying your wrong bud, rather playing devil's advocate 

True and we'll probably see nothing reliable in terms of any FI trends until mid next week....but it's all good fun so I can't resist looking now- despite the futility!

[MR EXTREMES]

44 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Only a matter of time before N Atlantic troughing clears towards our NE though you'd think

That would be cracking moving futher on pv over here.

 

[Man With Beard]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I just can't see the ECM being that far off AJ. I'm already looking for FI trends in terms of the next cold spell.

I have to agree with you to an extent CC, just looking at Hurricane Bertha in 2014 and ECM had that pretty much nailed from T96, and it is true, ECM at T72 is a hard thing to argue with. 

My problem, though, is that I find also it hard to argue with UKMO at T72!

I'll give it another run

[blizzard81]

With this almost unique tropical storm, surely it must now boil down to human input (the old fashioned way) to come up with a solution. Surely all those pros at the met can sort this out with regards to the track of this storm and it's likely knock on effect to our cold snap. Time to ditch the computer models for now.

Edited January 14, 2016 by blizzard81

[tight isobar]

The ecm is 'as evolution' on a par' with the gfs @day 3 in usual aspects. However the current prognosis is far from usual ie Alex Atlantic energy crop up.

Usually +day "3" the ecm starts outweighing the gfs....in term of evo accomplishment. 

But AGAIN with current signals and the like' Anything is feasible. 

But mr murr's flag up of around tomorrow's 12zset suite s is where I'd now be turned.

Quite dramatic miss modelling atm!!!..

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

I believe that sadly the atlantic will win through,the reason I say this is because to me the ukmo charts are not that great in my oppinion ,its more likely they are flirting with the idea of cold.not exactly set in stone with wonderful looking charts,I just feel its all to marginal!

 

 

 

 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

With this almost unique tropical storm, surely it must now boil down to human input (the old fashioned way) to come up with a solution. Surely all those pros at the met can sort this out with regards to the track of this storm and it's likely knock on effect to our cold snap.

Probably not, as they have very little experience of this type of set up. A lot of head scratching going on I would have thought.

[winterof79]

Struggling to get any output at present.

Do I take it the ECM is not showing a snowy breakdown?

I am sticking with the METO on this one.Fax and forecasts the lot.

[blizzard81]

Anyone know what has caused this tropical storm in the first place? Also, how rare is it for this time of year?

Edited January 14, 2016 by blizzard81

[Hammer]

Blizzard it is extremely rare. First January forming Hurricane since 1938. 

[blizzard81]

Just now, Hammer said:

Blizzard it is extremely rare. First January forming Hurricane since 1938. 

Thank you Hammer

[Timmytour]

1 minute ago, Hammer said:

Blizzard it is extremely rare. First January forming Hurricane since 1938.

If anyone needs to know why a hurricane forming in January would leave such a question mark hanging over the validity of the various models' output, it may well be worth having a look at the path the 1938 hurricane took ....

[i luv snow]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Anyone know what has caused this tropical storm in the first place? Also, how rare is it for this time of year?

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-alex-atlantic-ocean-azores

Quote

Alex has become a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, making it just the second hurricane on record to form in that basin during the month of January. The last hurricane that formed in the Atlantic during January was in 1938, according to NOAA's historical hurricane tracker database. Alex is also the first hurricane to occur in the Atlantic during January since Alice in 1955. Alice initially formed into a hurricane on Dec. 31, 1954, but then remained a hurricane into early January 1955.

Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 85 mph, making Alex a Category 1 hurricane. This also makes Alex the strongest January hurricane on record, surpassing the 80-mph peak of both Alice and the 1938 hurricane.

Quote

According to the National Hurricane Center, Alex's formation on Wednesday made it the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January since 1978. It's also only the fourth known storm to form in January since records began in 1851. As mentioned earlier, Alex is also only the second known hurricane to form in the Atlantic during the month of January.

Based on the long-term average, about once every 10 years, a tropical storm forms before June, most often in the month of May.

 

[john mac]

1 hour ago, radiohead said:

Even quite far out in FI territory, GFS and ECM are in agreement with the pattern, with high pressure to our south and two areas of low pressure to our north. Quite different to previous days when the major models were often very different at much earlier timeframes.

 

 

It doesn't matter if it's wrong early in the run

[john mac]

Could this hurricane be the torpedo that GP was talking about in his post the other day? Can you imagine where Alex collides with the cold air!! Carnage!!!

Edited January 14, 2016 by john mac

[bluearmy]

Just a thought

we were expecting the Atlantic to break through next week in some way, shape or form. 

Now throw the remnants of an ex hurricane into the mix out west. Is it likely to make the PFJ stronger or weaker? 

I accept that the NWP may struggle to resolve exactly how this plays out but I can't conceive that the undercutting scenario will now evolve effectively beyond the first disruption. 

I really hope that I wake up to 00z runs that say otherwise but I tealy don't expect to. That said, the models have moved toward an occlusion snow event early next week as the Atlantic attempts to break through so something to look forward to perhaps. 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, i luv snow said:

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-alex-atlantic-ocean-azores

 

Thank you for that info, very interesting.

[Ali1977]

Have I missed something, been away all day...Is this hurricane going to help with something ? Seems to be some excitement !! Cheers

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Have I missed something, been away all day...Is this hurricane going to help with something ? Seems to be some excitement !! Cheers

help or hindrance?......basically no-one or no supercomputer can unravel this mystery, not even scooby-doo

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just a thought

we were expecting the Atlantic to break through next week in some way, shape or form. 

Now throw the remnants of an ex hurricane into the mix out west. Is it likely to make the PFJ stronger or weaker? 

I accept that the NWP may struggle to resolve exactly how this plays out but I can't conceive that the undercutting scenario will now evolve effectively beyond the first disruption. 

I really hope that I wake up to 00z runs that say otherwise but I tealy don't expect to. That said, the models have moved toward an occlusion snow event early next week as the Atlantic attempts to break through so something to look forward to perhaps. 

From my limited knowledge, isn't this tropical storm only going to increase the energy in the atlantic, adding energy to the jet stream? As a result, I can only think this storm is more likely to scupper the chances of a prolonged cold spell, not enhance one.

[Chris1986]

Just now, ajpoolshark said:

help or hindrance?......basically no-one or no supercomputer can unravel this mystery, not even scooby-doo

Well as it's only ever happend once before in Jan so what can the models compare it against haha. I might have a look at some historical data from that winter. Either way it's going to be interesting. 

[Tim Brawn]

1 minute ago, Chris1986 said:

Well as it's only ever happend once before in Jan so what can the models compare it against haha. I might have a look at some historical data from that winter. Either way it's going to be interesting. 

ive know idea if this can happen if the storm bends like beckam on it way to Greenland , doesn't Greenland then toss it back our way including loads of SNOW !!