Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Banbury]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

To be honest after seeing his Twitter feed, I think the poor bloke has higher priorities than us snow chasing nutters. 

Agreed .................a bit more traumatic than the worry of snow falling eh?

Back to the models, I could well be in a decent spot for falling snow........................going on the latest charts ..............fingers crossed

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Did anybody read my post about the return of possible cold next week,I would like some opinions on this please!

To be honest, even the ECM 12z (which is best case scenario), is showing no major potent outbreak of cold although that chart towards the end with that cold high over us could see temperatures struggling to get above freezing, before that, any significant snow chances are likely to be restricted to higher ground in Northern England Northwards and more than likely only the far North of the UK as a whole.

Edited February 15, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Paul]

Can we pull this back to the models please, so far this evening there's been almost as many posts unrelated to the models than ones related to them! 

 

[mulzy]

This is close to a good chart...

Caveats apply (day 8 etc.), but the medium term outlook is not terrible!

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be honest, even the ECM 12z (which is best case scenario), is showing no major potent outbreak of cold although that chart towards the end with that cold high over us could see temperatures struggling to get above freezing, before that, any significant snow chances are likely to be restricted to higher ground in Northern England Northwards and more than likely only the far North of the UK as a whole.

Well I'm not so sure,with widespread -6 uppers over the country nothing wintry..??

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This is close to a good chart...

Caveats apply (day 8 etc.), but the medium term outlook is not terrible!

Yes not such a bad chart,could develop a slider there!

[sawan]

Surprisingly a front has already developed northwest of N.Ireland, shouldn't be too long before it gets here (England)? Forecast for my location has no mention of rain until Wednesday, am I missing on something here? 

[phil nw.]

Just looking towards the weekend and we see a brief warm up especially across England and Wales as the Azores high pushes some sub tropical Atlantic air northwards.

GFS shows daytime temperatures into double figures further south,closer to average across the north.

It does look brief though maybe 48hrs or so before a return to a more mobile westerly pattern as the jet fires up again.Temperatures for Warks. varying around average from week 2.

A glance at the day 8 GFS/ECM mean charts

 

slight variations on a similar picture into next week with the a typical Atlantic pattern as we see alternating colder and milder interludes between the weather fronts.

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Well I'm not so sure,with widespread -6 uppers over the country nothing wintry..??

Yes but theres no PPN by then. here is the chart where the -6 uppers are widespread.

High building in supressing PPN, dry as a bone but as I said, well below average temperatures so wintry in that respect I suppose.

[Eskimo]

Still some sizeable swings in the 850 temps for Wednesday. The 18z takes longer to mix the milder air out, but does show snow coming into play earlier as the angle is slightly more favourable. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

unusual to see cold air to west and mild air to the east, as WH said earlier bit topsy turvy setup, colder from west undercutting front!

[Ben Sainsbury]

10 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Still some sizeable swings in the 850 temps for Wednesday. The 18z takes longer to mix the milder air out, but does show snow coming into play earlier as the angle is slightly more favourable. 

Definitely slightly more progressive than the 12z.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just one run,the 18z pushes the front out of the way in the SE quicker than the 12z,but a more attack from the NW looks likely on this run,we will see.

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe exceptionally short at the moment - 36 hrs tops perhaps. Wednesday remains a forecasters nightmare, how quickly will the front move eastwards is the key question, where will it stall is the next.. will it stall, will it develop a wave, will the wave become stationary, will it simply fizzle, how much precipitation will be associated with it..

Lots of questions, and the answers will come through nowcasting.

Looking at the models, they do suggest a secondary low development of sorts in the SE, an interesting development. However, they also show the front becoming unstuck in central parts.

Further ahead all models show a resurgent Jetstream, generally mild in the south, notably so this weekend, trending cooler early next week, further north more average temps.

Taking a look further ahead, jet looks like diving NW-SE again and we might see that elusive mild atlantic high nosing up towards Greenland - just in time for Spring!

 

[The Enforcer]

3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

T60hrs fax chart, I'm still very surprised the UKMO aren't mentioning snow ahead of the front, you can see the comparison between that and the earlier one to T72hrs.

 

 

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Whilst temperatures  may be faverouble for snow in the south east, I think lack of precipitation may be the issue. Most models show the front stalling in central areas and by the time it finally clears into south eastern areas it is just light and patchy drizzle

 

I wonder whether the development of a low pressure cell along the line of the front along the channel coast (as can be seen on the fax charts) could re-vitalise the front to keep the moisture levels going once the temperatures/dewpoints/DAM/WBFL have become more conducive to snowfall?

Here's an example of the biggest snow event here in recent decades when a LP (shown over the channel) developed in a decaying front coming down from the north. Temperatures/dewpoints/DAM/WBFL had all been favourable - the issue up to that point was lack of precipitation, so granted not the same scenario, but the LP 'made' the event.

[Eskimo]

Question: what time does the euro4 18z come out?

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Question: what time does the euro4 18z come out?

by just before midnight.

[winterof79]

So this is the stalling point according to the Met latest with the colder air approaching.

[chicken soup]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

So this is the stalling point according to the Met latest with the colder air approaching.

That front is enormous stretches from norway down to spain.

[fergieweather]

Latest EC Monthly lends some additional weight to notion of a cold start to March. One to watch. 

[nick sussex]

Theres not much difference in terms of 850's to the nw on this GFS run compared to the earlier 12hrs but without the fronts slowing up sufficiently you don't get such a good undercut of colder air.

This run doesn't develop sufficiently the shallow feature towards the Channel, this is key to slowing down the progression eastwards.

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Latest EC Monthly lends some additional weight to notion of a cold start to March. One to watch. 

Thanks Fergie

march 2013 all over again,that was an el-nino winter?

never too late in my book.

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Theres not much difference in terms of 850's to the nw on this GFS run compared to the earlier 12hrs but without the fronts slowing up sufficiently you don't get such a good undercut of colder air.

This run doesn't develop sufficiently the shallow feature towards the Channel, this is key to slowing down the progression eastwards.

Yes nick

the 18z seem quiet bullish on pushing the front through,where as the fax chart has it stalling the country,nife edge stuff this is,we await tomorrow to firm up on this.

Edited February 15, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 hour ago, sawan said:

Surprisingly a front has already developed northwest of N.Ireland, shouldn't be too long before it gets here (England)? Forecast for my location has no mention of rain until Wednesday, am I missing on something here? 

Horror looking 18z Into f1 with lows moving in a north east direction, instead of taking a southerly track. Keeps us in mild west to south west winds!

Edited February 15, 2016 by Lukesluckybunch

[Mair Snaw]

9 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Latest EC Monthly lends some additional weight to notion of a cold start to March. One to watch. 

Thanks Ian for taking time to update... i hope you and family are all ok and well after what happened to you today..