Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Purga]

32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Nw/n/ne I don't mind just show me a proper block! lol

OK Nick - any good?

Bound to verify....

Edited February 16, 2016 by Purga

[Lukesluckybunch]

I'm thinking that if a block does build,its more likely to the Northwest ,which is showing up in the ecm already,HP to the Northwest with a deep trough to the east more likely outcome!

[stodge]

20 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Early March may well be horrid or brilliant, which one it is for most on here depending on whether it manages to be cold enough for lying snow in their backyard!

I suspect it might be both oddly enough. El Nino winter/spring transition isn't straightforward as 1997/98 showed. We may well get a  "false spring" of early warmth followed by a much colder spell as the HP re-positions or retrogresses. 

GFS 00Z suggested something of this nature this morning - HP initial set up close to the UK favouring a S or SW airflow which could bring quite warm conditions but then a switch to more HLB and colder conditions before mid month. I think a White Easter for some is a possibility and we've been here before. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Hello Folks ! Aside from tomorrows messy mix , Winter is not done by a long way! Its been colder the last few weeks than the  start of Winter.... The stats say that March is likely to see  more snow in the Uk than December,,,,

[sorepaw1]

I don't post often. I've studied  charts for 30 Years .I Remember forecasting before the Internet. I have my own basis for modern day  chart analysis. I have thousands of chart runs saved .and I ghost hundreds a day from past and present it gives me accurate information as best as I can get it up to 12 days. I created my own forecasts. To be fair today's GFS 12z  isn't that far out from my own predictions .

I occasionally forecast for BBC Radio Humberside,  sorry if I don't reply to questions, 

What I would say is an Easterly wind at the month end is highly likely and with a warmer than average North Sea could produce  disruptive wintery weather.

I'd like to be more bold in my forecasting but from experience 2 or more meteorologists will never agree  And I won't engage myself in heated debates I'll leave that to others.

To the snow starving lovers down south don't put your sledges back in the garage yet. 

It's been 25 Years since I've seen daffodils in lying snow. 

Keep a keen eye on the coming days  upto T+192hrs.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z op run upgraded the snow potential for the east and southeast during tomorrow night and into Thursday and the latest from the experts is continuing to upgrade the wintry potential with the band of slow moving moderate to heavy rain across most of England turning more and more to wet snow on wed night and through Thursday morning. :-)

[nick sussex]

I think its a case of nowcasting for the mid week. The set up isn't that usual with PM air undercutting rain and changing over to snow.

Often PM flows involve fronts moving quickly through ahead of a fast moving low pressure from the Atlantic and so rarely do you see these undercutting a slow moving front.

For this reason it could either turn out to be a damp squib or surprise in terms of snowfall.

[Biensie]

Karl (Frosty) you get me through a bad winter and reluctance to throw my towel with your hope!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Biensie said:

Karl (Frosty) you get me through a bad winter and reluctance to throw my towel with your hope!

Yes, great member to have on board, and dosen't like many including me LW252, just think about his own area

[fergieweather]

22 minutes ago, Karl. said:

The Gfs 12z op run upgraded the snow potential for the east and southeast during tomorrow night and into Thursday and the latest from the experts is continuing to upgrade the wintry potential 

I'd suggest quite the opposite: the parallel suite Euro4 and UKMO-GM both now generate little snow of note, so it all currently looks a bit less worrying. It's important to note that EC (which in the 00z run offered 5+cm of falling snow e.g. Wilts) has a known tendency to over-generate solid PPN and is thus considered unreliable re amounts being progged. So as it stands, unless there's a major shift back towards the more threatening outcome(s) we saw in some suites earlier today, I'd suspect the snow 'issue' will be gradually toned-down - at least somewhat - in public forecasts. That said, there remains around a 60-90 miles potential error margin E-W in areas that could yet see snow into central-southern England (encompassing from E Wales to E Anglia, and south-south east of those zones). Either way, this set-up will prove a tricky customer up to the wire.

[Weather Observer]

40 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I don't post often. I've studied  charts for 30 Years .I Remember forecasting before the Internet. I have my own basis for modern day  chart analysis. I have thousands of chart runs saved .and I ghost hundreds a day from past and present it gives me accurate information as best as I can get it up to 12 days. I created my own forecasts. To be fair today's GFS 12z  isn't that far out from my own predictions .

I occasionally forecast for BBC Radio Humberside,  sorry if I don't reply to questions, 

What I would say is an Easterly wind at the month end is highly likely and with a warmer than average North Sea could produce  disruptive wintery weather.

I'd like to be more bold in my forecasting but from experience 2 or more meteorologists will never agree  And I won't engage myself in heated debates I'll leave that to others.

To the snow starving lovers down south don't put your sledges back in the garage yet. 

It's been 25 Years since I've seen daffodils in lying snow. 

Keep a keen eye on the coming days  upto T+192hrs.

In the light of the winter so far and what the models are showing, I would rate that to be a bold forecast Sorepaw. If it happens, and I hope it does, it is unlikely that us in the south will see the daffodils in the snow, however, as they will be over by then. That's how bad it's been down here.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 hours ago, Karl. said:

With a favourable MJO and displaced vortex, surely we will see increasingly cold, blocked solutions soon. March could deliver. I'm not saying it would be like 2013 but I remember that winter 2012 / 13 was similarly abysmal to this one and then march brought blizzards and a freeze so I wouldn't rule out March 2016 springing some wonderful wintry surprises...and next week has cold interest too.

Hi Karl , I'm afraid to say your wrong about the 12/13 winter been abysmal , we had 3 large snow events in January one of which on 17th was nationwide , the other came 3 days later on a Sunday and gave 10cm to much of the midlands and areas south and east of the mids , the other of another 7-10cm came 3 days on again on a Tuesday evening which gave me 6 inches with my elevation , and then February gave another 2/3 smaller slushy affairs , then came March . 

I have no point in what I'm saying because it has no bearing on this winter although that winter synoptically and locally was very very different .

anyway sorry for going off the subject

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

It's already been raining here in Notts so I've got more chance of seeing pigs fly than snow tomorrow, not that I'm pecissimistic or anything! 

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

It's already been raining here in Notts so I've got more chance of seeing pigs fly than snow tomorrow, not that I'm pecissimistic or anything! 

Problem of course is that we wanted this front to move in as slowly as possible, it was going to grind to a halt over the middle of the country yesterday giving the cold air a chance to catch up and undercut. As it turns out it is moving along a lot faster and not going to stop, the cold air in the east has also moved away faster than anticipated.

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Hi Karl , I'm afraid to say your wrong about the 12/13 winter been abysmal 

Yes I was wrong,  I already apologised earlier about getting my dates mixed up..model fatigue and all that. 

[Frosty.]

36 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

I'd suggest quite the opposite: the parallel suite Euro4 and UKMO-GM both now generate little snow of note

In that case I apologise, I would never want to mislead anyone..seems I'm apologising a lot today for one thing and another.. bad day at the office.

[snowangel32]

i don't want to look at the Pub run I just know it's shifted things East even more and doesn't mix out the mild air. And with Fergies detailed and excellent post highlighting the chance of snow has diminished somewhat. and looks like next next week is another marginal scenario so that will be rain again. This winter will be known as the winter of 10 days away lol. Rant over

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 16, 2016 by snowangel32

[bluearmy]

Without Internet access for a while so few posts - plenty to watch for later next week and beyond re sliders and a broad repeat of the pattern just finishing. coldies hope for some better advection of cold ahead of any sliders. Thereafter - we could see some weak blocking to the north/nw though as we approach March, uppers will need to be pretty low to countet the solar input.

 

[Mark wheeler]

5 minutes ago, Karl. said:

In that case I apologise, I would never want to mislead anyone..seems I'm apologising a lot today for one thing and another.. bad day at the office.

Hey , don't you dare apologise for posting what you think charts show. If they aren't what happens then hey ho . But your posts are great reading and a superb contribution to this thread . Keep it up frosty . One day we will all get our snow 

[Essex snowman]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hey , don't you dare apologise for posting what you think charts show. If they aren't what happens then hey ho . But your posts are great reading and a superb contribution to this thread . Keep it up frosty . One day we will all get our snow 

Here here this forum needs u Karl 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hey , don't you dare apologise for posting what you think charts show. If they aren't what happens then hey ho . But your posts are great reading and a superb contribution to this thread . Keep it up frosty . One day we will all get our snow 

Thanks for that..much appreciated..and Essex Snowman too

[Paul]

And on that, shall we head back to the models & maybe those who want to tell Karl how super he is can drop him a pm

[damianslaw]

Short term - very topsy turvy, next 24 hours, there now looks less chance for low level snowfall than what appeared at the weekend - another case of everything being far too marginal, we shall see..

A chilly day on Thursday, becoming mild again over the weekend, with heavy rain in the NW - not a very inspiring picture.

However, models are all showing a potent PM blast early next week, heavy wintry showers likely in the north, Scotland could see some disruptive snowfall, and showers band together into more prolonged snow.

Signs the Jetstream is set to buckle again next week, with heights building mid atlantic, and yes well beyond reliable but we have some very cold operationals for early March heights building to the NW, this would tie in with Met office forecast of chance of something notably colder as we start the new month.

Its just a hunch but for the first time this season, I'm feeling a prominent cold period on the horizon with blocking to the north..

[feb1991blizzard]

Better ridging up the West of Greenland at 105, potent Northerly coming here or at least potent PM or AM air, I feel a really blocked run coming up here.

[Swave Snow]

29 minutes ago, snowray said:

Problem of course is that we wanted this front to move in as slowly as possible, it was going to grind to a halt over the middle of the country yesterday giving the cold air a chance to catch up and undercut. As it turns out it is moving along a lot faster and not going to stop, the cold air in the east has also moved away faster than anticipated.

Not sure how you came to this conclusion.

 

Temps in the southeastern part are still dropping including Northolt down to 2c 7 minutes ago with a dew point of -1c 

 

The rain doesn't look like progressing as quickly as a normal frontal band of Atlantic rainfall would.

 

It's started to transition over the higher elevations in Scotland on the net weather radar at least.

 

Temps in the far west of Ireland which were up to 11c last night are now 3c  and so is Aviemore which was much warmer earlier today.

 

Winds in the south are still coming up from a southerly directly from a cold France rights now.

 

 

Edited February 16, 2016 by Paul