Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAR 17TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   High pressure will drift slowly West to the North of Scotland allowing the chilly NE flow across Southern and Eastern Britain to back to a more Northerly direction tomorrow and the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise from near 4000ft across the South at first to be nearer to 6000ft across the UK tomorrow and the weekend with no snowfall expected across the UK with the freezing level well over even the highest summits.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly dry and bright with some frosts at night. Probably becoming less settled later in the month especially in the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains blocked by a large High to the North of the UK. The theme is for the block to persist for a time diverting the flow well North and South of the UK for the next week or so. Thereafter, the flow focuses on a point to the South of the UK as the block continues to collapse through week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure continuing to control the weather across the UK over the next 3 or 4 days as High pressure continues to lie close to or over the UK with a lot of cloud trapped in it's circulation. Next week shows more variable conditions as on this run Low pressure to the South may allow some rain to feed up into Southern and Western areas with High pressure declining to the NE by Easter. Then after a variable but not too bad an Easter break weather-wise another surge of unsettled conditions are shown to develop in Week 2 from the South as Low pressure once more disrupts it's way to the to the South of the UK with the end of the run ending with Low pressure taking a more traditional Northerly track with a Westerly flow with rain at times moving in from the West for all.  

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows High pressure holding on across the UK through the first week as it centre remains over or close to the North of the UK. Over Easter quite slack pressure conditions would give a benign and rather cloudy Easter with unspectacular temperatures but not much rain. Then in the second week the weather remains quite quiet before pressure falls from the SW with strong SE winds and rain followed by a less chilly SW flow with further rain ends the period for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show complete disagreement between members with 4 equal shares of 25% split between Low pressure governance and that of High pressure across the UK in two weeks time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning for the first time has shown the weather breaking down from the North next week as the High pressure across the North of the UK accelerates away to the SW early in the week with Low pressure spreading wind and rain SE over the UK by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure in control over the period although it becomes increasingly squeezed away to the West by the start of next week with several weak troughs moving South across the UK at times ensuring plenty of cloud and a little drizzle feasible anywhere at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning quite settled over the next week as High pressure continues to wobble around close to or over the NW of the UK with the weather watchers chasing areas of cloud across the UK and rather cool conditions at times. Then as we move through Easter the weather is shown to deteriorate from the North with Easter looking cold and unsettled with rain or wintry showers looking likely for many especially over the East. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure based conditions continuing over the UK up until Easter as this run shows the High maintaining control lying close to the South of the UK next week before a North/South split in conditions look likely over Easter with rain at times especially across the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure lasting for another 4-5 days as it meanders further West and SW out into the Atlantic as we move into next week. This will then gradually allow pressure to fall from the North similar to the way UKMO shows this morning but perhaps less dramatic with a ridge following a couple of days of cool and unsettled weather and the ultimate return of Atlantic and Westerly winds with rain at times and average temperatures for all by Day 10 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows an unstable West or SW flow looking likely in 10 days with Low pressure out to the NW with the Jet stream crossing East close to Southern England and High pressure well away by then to the SW or SE so rain at times in average temperatures look the most likely conditions the UK find ourselves in.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still much indecision between the output this morning in the way the general theme of High pressure loosening it's grip evolves as we move towards the Easter period and beyond.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.9 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.2 pts to 59.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 45.3 pts to 44.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The weather patterning over the next few weeks looks as unclear as ever this morning as all outputs differ in the way they handle the breakdown from the current High pressure as we move towards Easter. In fact some output show just a partial breakdown with a lot of benign and quiet conditions looking likely whereas there are a few more supporters of a cold Northerly flow looking possible or a more Westerly based pattern. But coming back to the here and now and all models show another 4-5 days of relatively fine if rather cloudy conditions with a chill in the air the most likely weather as the High pressure responsible wobbles around the North and later out to the West of the UK. It's what happens to the High after that which is far less certain with GFS maintaining it across the UK for a time with an eventual breakdown moving up from the SW with cold and damp conditions developing in a SE flow while UKMO, GEM and ECM show an attack from the North with a spell of cold and windy conditions with some rain and hill snow looking possible close to the start of the Easter weekend melting into a Westerly flow thereafter from ECM. Which is right remains unclear and yesterday I know I favoured the then version of ECM and Westerly winds developing soon after Easter and I still feel that remains my thoughts. However, it would be unwise to discount the chances of a colder and more unsettled theme under a much colder airflow either from the North or East with some of the main output notably from GFS looking so volatile towards this evolution. As usual more runs are needed so watch this space. 

Next Update Friday March 18th 2016 from 09:00

[Frosty.]

Interesting Gem 00z which shows a more prolonged colder shot from the north, it would be a chilly Easter with wintry showers.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z says NO to a Northerly later next week and Good Friday looks very mild and largely fine for southern, central and eastern areas on this run, similar to the 18z last night.

[Frosty.]

Following a mild Easter, the Gfs 6z pumps even warmer air up from the south during the first half of week 2 with mid to high teens celsius further south and feeling more humid as the air is sourced from southern Europe..it would feel very spring like with sunny spells but with a risk of a few showers breaking out...however, the formation of a scandi high and an easterly flow makes deep FI turn colder!

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Karl, Something bluearmy alluded to yesterday with Low Pressure tracking way South into the run pumping Height's up into the Arctic.

Quote

 Ops seem to be playing with cut off wedges of higher heights to our nw and southerly tracking systems as a consequence. Potential Winter nirvana 6 weeks too late. Ens means/spreads will not pick up these wedges as they tend not to be made up of particularly high heights. 

Edited March 17, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean for the beginning of Easter there is no sign of a cold Northerly there, in fact it looks quite mild which is more in line with the 6z op and nothing like the Ecm or Gem 00z ops which show a rather cold outbreak for the time of year. There is nothing in the latest met office update suggesting anything wintry over Easter although they say that during early April we could have a rather cold unsettled Northerly airflow with rain and showers followed by an Easterly with temps throughout averaging out near or slightly below average with the highest risk of frosts further north.

[Faronstream]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean for the beginning of Easter there is no sign of a cold Northerly there, in fact it looks quite mild which is more in line with the 6z op and nothing like the Ecm or Gem 00z ops which show a rather cold outbreak for the time of year. There is nothing in the latest met office update suggesting anything wintry over Easter although they say that during early April we could have a rather cold unsettled Northerly airflow with rain and showers followed by an Easterly with temps throughout averaging out near or slightly below average with the highest risk of frosts further north.

Depends of what your definiton of a "mild" easter is, it does not look average most most of europé, below in North Europe

[Summer Sun]

Latter stages from GFS showing a plume of warm air heading our way

[Frosty.]

These are charts to get you in the mood for late spring and early summer from the Gfs 12z op in low res..even a coldie like me would enjoy this...hopefully a sign of Spanish plumes to come in May / June / July / August

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Great charts Frosty!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Great charts Frosty!

Yes they are fantastic, just shows how warm it could get so early with a long draw southerly flow. Winter was a write off, let's hope the gfs 12z is a sign of things to come.

[Captain Shortwave]

Fair to say that current model guidance is poor at the moment given the day 6 charts.

GFS/UKMO/ECM

      

The GFS keeps the high hanging around over the UK, the UKMO tries to bring a westerly flow back into the UK whilst the ECM is about to give another northerly based output as low pressure sweeps south east allowing heights to retrograde. The GEM offers a slower but similar evolution to the ECM. The GEFs look split between the UKMO and GFS operational with minority support for the ECM at the moment.

Edited March 17, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Cloud 10]

Certainly a "good friday" for coldies on this evening's ECM.

 

[Frosty.]

The GEM and especially the Ecm 12z are going for a cold shot from the north later next week and into Easter as they were on the 00z, I'm sure some of us would see snow from these charts together with ice / frosts.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All...!The Ecms Winter cold for Easter ,or the Gfs bland version ....Who is right?

[Singularity]

   

On the ECM 12z chart for day 5, we see a clean divide of low heights against the UK high, one low heading 'over the top' via Iceland, the other 'underneath' toward Iberia. The former then squeezes the high west as it drops south into the North Sea, so producing a chilly northerly for Good Friday.

 

The GFS 12z handles things very differently. The trough just stalls up against the high and then slowly dissipates while a weak secondary low breaks away and heads to Iberia. The faintest of lows does head 'over' the high as well, but takes long enough that a large Atlantic trough is able to force the jet - hence the low - to keep on heading east instead of taking that sharp dive south that ECM is keen on (as is GEM).

ECM actually diverges even further from GFS as that Atlantic trough comes into play; the model disrupts the feature, while GFS does not. 

  

Despite these different routes, both models end up with a similar theme for days 9-10; a large trough dropping south in our vicinity - though GFS is notably further to the west with the positioning. I wonder if we could see some disruption of that trough against a residual wedge of higher heights N/NE of the UK. The current MJO activity in phase 4 lends a little support to this idea, but it'll soon be in phase 5, which lends more favour to height rises across Europe - making the GFS route days 9-10 seem more plausible than ECM. After that we watch out for high pressure shifting to Scandinavia, should the MJO continue to phase 6. If not... who knows, perhaps the mid-Atlantic trough becomes a common driver much as we have tended to see in recent springs (relating to the mid-Atlantic 'Cold Pool' which continues to be very much in place).

 

[Weather Observer]

I joined this thread this winter as an unreconstructed coldie, or do I mean oldie, another vetrane of the winter of 1978/9. Rubbish in the streets as the bin men were on strike, but a foot of fresh snow in Greenwich park just up the hill. This winter has dealt us a hand that was so bad that I can sense the frustration of even the most gifted and dedicated posters.

Nothing original to offer, but hey ho silver lining, here's to the next time.

[bluearmy]

Not sure if I missed an earlier run, but the ECM 30 dayer has now been superseded by the 46 dayer!  Would be interesting to learn what the verification stats have been whilst this was running in parallel with the 32 dayer. 

[Frosty.]

The GEM 00z is still showing a cold Northerly airflow on Good Friday with wintry showers and the Easter weekend also looks chilly, the Ecm which gave such strong support to the gem yesterday is no longer interested, although that doesn't mean it won't flip back by the 12z.

[mb018538]

Still some very subtle changes around this morning which mean the difference between cold/cool/showery/wet or even a little milder. All options are still available, and ensembles show a range of outcomes. I guess by Sunday we should have a good idea as it gets within the 5 day range. Personally I'd like something a bit milder, as here in the east most of the days under this high have been fairly grim, cold and with a nagging easterly breeze!

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAR 18TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure to the NW of the UK will persist with a slack Northerly flow down across the UK over the next few days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain around the 6000ft mark over the weekend so with the freezing level above all summits of the UK no snowfall is expected anywhere,

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly dry and bright at first then becoming less settled later in the month especially but not exclusively in the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains blocked by a large High close to the UK. The theme is for the block to persist for a time diverting the flow well North and South of the UK for the next 4-5 days. Thereafter, the flow becomes more active placing the UK under a trough as it undulates North and South close to Southern Britain through Week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure continuing to control the weather across the UK over the next 3 or 4 days as High pressure slips slowly South just to the West of the UK over the weekend. Then a ridge is maintained across the South from it early next week with more unsettled conditions affecting the North quite early next week extending slowly South so that by Easter deep Low pressure to the NW will bring rain and strong winds to many followed by a showery spell of weather in cyclonic conditions. By the end of the run pressure has risen somewhat from the South with the more unsettled conditions more towards the NW in average temperatures overall.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the operational with the fine period continuing for a while longer but as High pressure declines away to the SW next week Low pressure developing to the NW will spread rain and strong winds across all areas by Easter, a theme which persists then for the rest of the run with an unsettled and windy Easter but with average temperatures out to the end of the month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today remain mixed with conflicting signals from members with a slight bias favouring a SW flow with rain at times likely across the UK in 14 days time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a slide into more unsettled and windy weather next week as Low pressure to the North and NW of the UK by then replaces the recent quiet and benign conditions with rain at times and temperatures closer to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure still in control over the period although it becomes increasingly squeezed away to the West next week as troughs begin to queue up to the West and NW of the UK by then.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning is the one model who maintains the risk of a cold Northerly flow as we move towards Easter displacing the quiet weather with a day or so of cold Northerly winds towards Easter with some wintry convective showers in places before over Easter itself a ridge returns across the UK in rather cold air masses drawn West across the UK from Europe. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure based conditions continuing over the UK slipping away to the South by the middle of next week as pressure falls to the North and NW with a SW flow developing with rain and showers moving SE to all areas in time for Easter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure declining away SE too next week but it does so in a rather slower way than UKMO for example with only occasional rain reaching the South in time for Easter before a slip into somewhat deeper unsettled conditions develop for all over Easter itself as Low pressure to the North and NW exert more influence. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart shows the Jet Stream South of the UK and an unstable South or SW flow likely across the UK in 10 days as Low pressure anchors out to the West and NW of the UK with rain at times but with winds from a South or SW point it could be an awful lot colder than it will be with some warm sunshine between the showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is shift of theme towards a spell of unsettled westerly winds to develop across the UK over Easter and into April as the Jet Stream realigns close to the UK as High pressure slips away South.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 85.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 63.4 pts to 59.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS has regained the lead from ECM with a score of 44.1 pts to 43.8 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The weather looks like changing next week as our High pressure area looks likely to move away to the SW of the UK with Low pressure in various guises moving down across the UK from the NW. The models have moved away from a previously projected cold Northerly and moved more towards an unsettled Easter period due to low pressure out to the North, NW or even the West. This looks like that we are more likely to have winds from between South and West rather than from the North hence a rather milder prospect. However, that's where the good news ends as with Low pressure over a Bank Holiday weekend means only one thing and that is of course unsettled weather with rain at times. The North and West as always look like receiving the most of the bad weather though rain is expected for all at times along with brighter spells and showers in between. There are still a few notable exceptions to this theme shown between the models with GEM flying the flag still for a brief Northerly and wintry showers while GFS are still very muddly within their cluster data. However, leaving all that aside it does look more likely now that our fine and benign spell of weather will end at some point next week with the UK entering a phase of very typical Spring weather with rain and wind at times alternating with sunshine and showers and temperatures finishing up close to normal for late March. 

Next Update Saturday March 19th 2016 from 09:00

[Singularity]

Not a done deal yet, but possibly a major embarrassment for the ECM model if the Icelandic shortwave merges with the Atlantic low instead of dropping into Scandi as it was insisting yesterday. In which case UKMO will have just about managed to save itself last night. 

It has been a poor week indeed for the NWP models, and in the end it appears that overall, March will turn out somewhat different to what expert minds in general were anticipating. There has been a major outbreak of cold weather arising from SSW/MJO effects, but it has ended up being from Finland eastward. This was always a risk with the SSW event - the UK is often at the western extent of the cold train - but it had been expected (on my part at least) that the MJO would serve to encourage an alignment of the trop. vortex displacement that would bring the UK in on the act.

This, however, was based on the SSW and MJO movement both being some 10 days sooner, with the most notable cold in March tending to be in the first half. With the delay, the location of the vortex displacement has shifted to the east - due to seasonal wavelength changes I expect (which seem particularly prominent when there is an El Nino background state).

 

This doesn't explain it all though; the surface response to the SSW in terms of high latitude blocking is looking unusually muted this time around. While the lower strat. looks to respond in some guise, it does not look as pronounced as I'd expect to see, and the impact on the troposphere looks lackluster based on current model guidance; a feeble attempt at cross-polar heights from the Pacific to the Arctic (which not long ago was looking considerably stronger in the output) which is insufficient to combat the added westerly momentum in response to the MJO tracking into phase 5 (this being what was expected to battle against a blocked pattern around mid-month... so much for that!).

In terms of weather experiences at the surface, it's been nice to have a few pleasant, springlike days instead of unusually cold winds for days on end (though we're not escaping entirely down here in the south, and this weekend is looking downright miserable - but at least largely dry), but from a long-range forecasting perspective, it's been a let down, and raises questions as to how much it will take to be able to reliably anticipate how a SSW/tropical forcing combination will play out.

 

Good support from tropical forcing for height rises across Europe in the 7-10 day period so with a bit of luck, we may get a taste of late-spring warmth about a month early. That'd be a nice antidote to the forecasting shortfalls.

[Singularity]

GFS 06z considerably flatter as early as day 4 and seriously vigorous with the Atlantic jet thereafter. I actually muttered an expletive when I scanned through; I'm expecting the ridge to put up a decent fight as it takes hold across Europe.

If the flat, progressive trend continues with the 12z runs then I'll just have to throw my hands up in the air and admit that things are out of control at the moment.

 

[Gael_Force]

2 hours ago, Singularity said:

It has been a poor week indeed for the NWP models, and in the end it appears that overall, March will turn out somewhat different to what expert minds in general were anticipating. There has been a major outbreak of cold weather arising from SSW/MJO effects, but it has ended up being from Finland eastward. This was always a risk with the SSW event - the UK is often at the western extent of the cold train - but it had been expected (on my part at least) that the MJO would serve to encourage an alignment of the trop. vortex displacement that would bring the UK in on the act.

Didn't Fergie say, at the beginning of March, the UKMO were not expecting the MJO to be an influence on the weather for this month. Their models and outlook were based on what was being modelled in the stratosphere.

BTW, what has happened to the site where you did the weather forecasts and blog?

Edited March 18, 2016 by Gael_Force

[Frosty.]

I have been throwing my hands up in the air since December, I haven't given up on a chance of snow but I really don't mind if we see a warm southerly plume like the Gfs 12z showed yesterday, in fact I would like it a lot!