Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[northwestsnow]

36 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I must have just looked at a different 6z GFS as it looks pretty awful from start to finish and not just in the far NW. I think we can safely write off another poor Summer.

As far as NI and NW Scotland is concerned i agree, its not looking good for those areas unfortunately

6Z offered some reasonable weather for much of southernUK - no heatwave granted, but certainly no wall to wall washout..

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean offers encouragement for the south next week with a ridge of high pressure extending across southern areas, however, expect some degree of trough intrusion from the northwest which gradually migrates to the northeast so the northern half of the uk in particular would be generally cooler and more showery but the further away to the south you are next week looks drier, sunnier and warmer, not immune from rain or showers and cooler temps but at least relatively drier and warmer than further north.

[northwestsnow]

Better 12z runs from ukmo and gfs with no sign of any trough domination, indeed, ukmo has the ridge in control at 144 as per gfs...

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

For sure drier and warmer the further south and east you go..

[Summer Sun]

This afternoons UKMO shows high pressure moving back over the UK as we move into next week

Still the chance of some rain / showers in the far north but drier and warmer the further south and se you are

[mb018538]

Beat me to it chaps - I'll third the comments above to say that the UKMO run shows the ridge firmly winning out against the trough for now. I suspect in the SE it'll be more than decent, a little less so in the north and west, but no wash out for sure. Could be worse!

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO for the first half of next week

      

It is hardly a disaster for the majority with a shallow upper trough being gradually replaced by another ridge moving ENE from the main Azores high. Westerly albeit with winds rather gentle with temperatures near normal, trending upwards in the south again towards the mid-twenties perhaps by the middle of the week.

GFS

      

Quite similar in theme though probably offer more showers and temperatures nearer normal by day 5/6 compared to the UKMO, again it isn't that bad.

So rain or showers in the north and west, drier towards the south and east, though temperatures will trend downwards a bit from the warm or very warm conditions some will experience this weekend with mid to high twenties possible on both days in the south.

GFS temperatures for Saturday and Sunday, you could possibly add a degree or so to these.

   

A very good weekend for the majority of England at least, not so good elsewhere with rain affecting some parts.

Edited July 21, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

UKMO for the first half of next week

      

 

It is hardly a disaster for the majority with a shallow upper trough being gradually replaced by another ridge moving ENE from the main Azores high. Westerly albeit with winds rather gentle with temperatures near normal, trending upwards in the south again towards the mid-twenties perhaps by the middle of the week.

 

GFS

      

Quite similar in theme though probably offer more showers and temperatures nearer normal by day 5/6 compared to the UKMO, again it isn't that bad.

So rain or showers in the north and west, drier towards the south and east, though temperatures will trend downwards a bit from the warm or very warm conditions some will experience this weekend with mid to high twenties possible on both days in the south.

Yep, generally speaking a marked shift north of the old jet on ukmo/gfs this afternoon - im sure thats great news for the vast majority on here

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Beat me to it chaps - I'll third the comments above to say that the UKMO run shows the ridge firmly winning out against the trough for now. I suspect in the SE it'll be more than decent, a little less so in the north and west, but no wash out for sure. Could be worse!

I maybe wrong here but i suspect a surge in the Atlantic has actually helped our case this evening, preventing the retrogression of the Azores high to Greenland, in any case, the UK stands to benefit greatly with some really nice summer weather,broadly speaking,for those away from the NW of the UK.

[northwestsnow]

GFS goes on to produce a lovely run, but before getting carried away we await ECM and of course the 10 -15 day anomalies ..:)

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS goes on to produce a lovely run, but before getting carried away we await ECM and of course the 10 -15 day anomalies ..:)

I'm sure someone will post these in due course...

[mb018538]

It could be that the low spinning itself up off the coast of Canada interferes with proceedings, and prevents the Azores high building up to Greenland, instead giving ridging as show by UKMO and GFS tonight. We shall await ECM to see what it shows...

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mb018538 said:

It could be that the low spinning itself up off the coast of Canada interferes with proceedings, and prevents the Azores high building up to Greenland, instead giving ridging as show by UKMO and GFS tonight. We shall await ECM to see what it shows...

Yes, on GFS i watched the run come out and something along those lines prevented the high linking north towards Greenland as it did on the 6z run.

Perhaps a little luck going our way for once? Or a flash in the pan, interesting nonetheless..:)

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep, generally speaking a marked shift north of the old jet on ukmo/gfs this afternoon - im sure thats great news for the vast majority on here

That's an interesting observation nws

 

 

 

Edited July 21, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

That's an interesting observation nws

 

 

 

Sorry Knocks, i should have made myself clearer, from the earlier runs it has shifted the grot north..:)

PS icant post GFS charts, i dont know why, but i can pick out some jetstream charts from that 12z gfs with  the jet missing in action, just a thought..:)

Edited July 21, 2016 by northwestsnow

[mb018538]

It is weakening all the while in this particular run though - compare the starting strength to what is show at day 10:

This shows the high winning out and pushing low pressure back to Iceland. Of course the 6z had a dartboard low over the UK around the same time, so it's about as much use as a waterproof teabag at the moment. All eyes on the ECM.

Edited July 21, 2016 by mb018538

[knocker]

I must admit I don't see anything impressive about the GFS run. Marginally better that the ooz but the changes are to be expected  Brief ridging after we get rid of the influence of the low on Monday but then the next system wings in to effect the north on Thursday. The temps aren't too hot either although it will be pleasantly warm in the sunny interludes. No point in looking further ahead.

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry Knocks, i should have made myself clearer, from the earlier runs it has shifted the grot north..:)

PS icant post GFS charts, i dont know why, but i can pick out some jetstream charts from that 12z gfs with  the jet missing in action, just a thought..:)

I really don't see the point of wondering about the N/S movement of the jet on every run as it will vary depending on which phase of the LP/HP interaction is currently in vogue.

Edited July 21, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

I must admit I don't see anything impressive about the GFS run. Marginally better that the ooz but the changes are to be expected  Brief ridging after we get rid of the influence of the low on Monday but then the next system wings in to effect the north on Thursday. The temps aren't too hot either although it will be pleasantly warm in the sunny interludes. No point in looking further ahead.

Neither do i actually(the first line of your post), but given the mero update/this mornings ecm in particular, and the general consensus its a LOT better than i was anticipating

[mb018538]

 

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

I must admit I don't see anything impressive about the GFS run. Marginally better that the ooz but the changes are to be expected  Brief ridging after we get rid of the influence of the low on Monday but then the next system wings in to effect the north on Thursday. The temps aren't too hot either although it will be pleasantly warm in the sunny interludes. No point in looking further ahead.

On ‎19‎/‎07‎/‎2016 at 18:11, knocker said:

Out to day ten the GFS is unsettled, changeable, varied, sod it, cool and wet.

Hang on....2 days ago you were posting charts from 228 hours...today 168 is far enough ahead? Have some consistency!

[knocker]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Neither do i actually(the first line of your post), but given the mero update/this mornings ecm in particular, and the general consensus its a LOT better than i was anticipating

But it's one run from one model nws

[knocker]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

 

Hang on....2 days ago you were posting charts from 228 hours...today 168 is far enough ahead? Have some consistency!

I probably had a reason but I don't expect you to believe them.(The charts I mean)

[northwestsnow]

Just now, knocker said:

But it's one run from one model nws

I know that Knocks, but the UKMo is also an improvement on the 00z run so the trend is better this evening, of course it could be a mirage and the ECM may be different, but i can only comment on what i see

[knocker]

You know Sidney warned me about getting involved in discussions whilst the charts were still rolling off the press. He really is a wise old squirrel.

[Frosty.]

Just now, knocker said:

But it's one run from one model nws

I should add that the Gem 12z is just as atrocious as the 00z and becomes trough dominated next week with several troughs ganging up over and close to the uk..unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain, nowhere escapes the rain or the subdued temps.

[knocker]

35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Hang on....2 days ago you were posting charts from 228 hours...today 168 is far enough ahead? Have some consistency!

I am being consistent as I'm busy shortening the time frame the more unreliable it becomes to hover over individual runs without waiting to at least to check the ens and  upper air.

Edited July 21, 2016 by knocker