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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

phil nw.
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

There is no indication of that with the EPS anomalies. In fact as it moves into the ext period rather the opposite with the trough weakening and moving east leaving the UK in a westerly airstream.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean the early August period concerns me as for some time its been showing troughy conditions with the Azores high well out of the picture. I hope its wrong because I really want to see this summer recover from the dismal first half.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Certainly not cold for the next few days but the GFS and Canadian do end the month on a cooler and more unsettled note. 

Rtavn2401.gif

 

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Saturday sees brief ridging over England before frontal systems arrive on Sunday bringing rain and showery conditions to most Subsequently the ridge becomes briefly influential once again, particularly in the south, before the next system moves in at the end of the week. Temps generally around average but perhaps a little on the cool side but certainly quite pleasant in the sunny periods In other words the usual dance ( phase changes) between the LP to the NW and HP to the SW. One is mindful in this continuing mobile scenario not to consider anything outside of the reliable time frame as in anyway definitive as changes will occur with every run although the general overall picture will remain the same.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_16.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_23.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_36.png

Edited by knocker
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted (edited)

Knocker has summed the GFS up nicely there. The key thing for me is that, for now, the GFS (and GEFS) has gone cold on ideas of a sustained NWly which it assisted to be firming up on at one point yesterday. It still goes cooler for a while next week but leaves the door open for a much better end of the week to finish July off (the final weekend itself not so sure). And don't say it too loudly but there's another plume attempt going on over France by T180, doesn't reach us on this run but this is how yesterday's plume started out...

Edited by Man With Beard
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Gem has gone from hero to zero in a few days, recently it was showing a very warm anticyclonic outlook but now it's showing this, increasingly trough domination next week with cooler showery conditions and longer spells of rain on the 00z...not pretty but pretty awful.:shok::D

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

ECM is a bit disappointing this morning, GFS and the GEFS set look mainly dry and warm for London with very little in the way of precip on the ens set.UKMO also looks better than the ECM so hopefully ecm is a bit progressive this morning..

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM is a bit disappointing this morning, GFS and the GEFS set look mainly dry and warm for London with very little in the way of precip on the ens set.UKMO also looks better than the ECM so hopefully ecm is a bit progressive this morning..

No it looks unsettled and cooler next week to my untrained eyes.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Karl. said:

No it looks unsettled and cooler next week to my untrained eyes.

Yes mate the ECM is very progressive this morning, the disagreement with UKMO is quite noticeable as early as 96, hopefully UKMO is closer to the truth :D

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes mate the ECM is very progressive this morning, the disagreement with UKMO is quite noticeable as early as 96, hopefully UKMO is closer to the truth :D

I'm doing my best troll impersination but it's not very popular..haha..very autumnal outlook:spiteful:

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

ECM mean looks to be backing the op as far as i can tell so the meto update will be interesting, if they go with ECM i expect a pretty poor update, if they go with GFS it might not be so bad, we'll see...

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM mean looks to be backing the op as far as i can tell so the meto update will be interesting, if they go with ECM i expect a pretty poor update, if they go with GFS it might not be so bad, we'll see...

The Gem is awful this morning and the Ecm is meh, it's worrying..I hope this summer won't be just a one day wonder.:closedeyes:

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, Karl. said:

The Gem is awful this morning and the Ecm is meh, it's worrying..I hope this summer won't be just a one day wonder.:closedeyes:

Two :D

Yesterday was lovely - anyway, hopefully any potential trough will be quite short lived, ticking towards August now, im not greedy, if we don't get a prolonged warm spell i dont mind some nice days and some not so nice days, i just don't want a washout !

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Two :D

Yesterday was lovely - anyway, hopefully any potential trough will be quite short lived, ticking towards August now, im not greedy, if we don't get a prolonged warm spell i dont mind some nice days and some not so nice days, i just don't want a washout !

I hope you're right mate, keep up the positive attitude!:)

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

ECM mean chart out to T240 - one thing has been consistent recently and that's a trough to the north:

EDM1-240.GIF?21-12

It means southern areas are never too far from the warm stuff, but northerners will really be wanting this trough to do a runner. Just a couple of hundred miles shift northwards would make a tremendous difference for summer prospects. Much stranger things have happened. Shift southwards though and ... oh dear.

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stodge Accomplished

stodge

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
Posted

Morning all :)

Oddly enough, very little has changed this morning. The GFS 00Z OP remains bullish in maintaining the Azores HP ridge for the longest across the south only breaking this ridge down at the end of next week:

gfs-0-192.png?0

As you might expect, the south keeps the settled weather for the longest and overall the next week would, if GFS OP verifies, be quite decent without the heat of recent days but pleasantly warm.

ECM 00Z OP is far less inspiring at the same time:

ECM1-192.GIF?21-12

We also see, as GEM showed yesterday, the possibility of the mid-Atlantic ridge coming south out of Greenland to link with the Azores HP and keep the trough basically over the UK. By no means certain but a worrying development.

gem-0-192.png

GEM 00Z OP at T+192 very close to ECM in all honesty and again signs of that pressure rise in mid-Atlantic.

GFS out on its own then but that means nothing at this stage. The possibility of heights building in mid-Atlantic through to Greenland is one which should concern us as we would be on the cold side of the block and facing poor conditions for early August.

 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Accuweather are calling for 3 weeks of unsettled muck on their latest thoughts (weather news) page, with brief incursions of slightly warmer weather creeping into the SE at times. Ties in with everything people have said above, the latest output, MetO updates etc....I think we're in agreement that we're going to have to deal with this pesky trough now! Here's hoping the long arm of the high pressure law can keep it at bay as much as possible.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

All things considered i would take the 06zgfs with open arms :)

Yes there are some unsettled blips but also warm dry days for many away from the far NW- might be optimistic to hope for something like this in view of the meto updates but one can hope ..

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

All things considered i would take the 06zgfs with open arms :)

Yes there are some unsettled blips but also warm dry days for many away from the far NW- might be optimistic to hope for something like this in view of the meto updates but one can hope ..

I must have just looked at a different 6z GFS as it looks pretty awful from start to finish and not just in the far NW. I think we can safely write off another poor Summer.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

All things considered i would take the 06zgfs with open arms :)

Yes there are some unsettled blips but also warm dry days for many away from the far NW- might be optimistic to hope for something like this in view of the meto updates but one can hope ..

Agreed, not a bad 6z run at all, especially further south, I've seen a lot worse this summer.:D

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

 I think we can safely write off another poor Summer.

I don't think we can write the rest of this summer off based on 1 6z op run..a bit of an extreme reaction?

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, Karl. said:

I don't think we can write the rest of this summer off based on 1 6z op run..a bit of an extreme reaction?

Sorry Karl, I was also basing that on that on the other factors such as previous posts allude to.

Its hard to see anything other than trough domination for the foreseeable.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

In general it's been pretty poor, but since last Saturday, the maxima here have been: 26/27/30/31/29.....today should reach 24c, with 24/26/25 forecast until Sunday. That's 8 days of above average temperatures, with the first half of the run significantly so. It's been so hit and miss, the never-ending easterly winds of early summer were terrible here, but out west weren't so bad. It's had a lot of wild swings. I just hope that the inevitable trough we are now stuck with doesn't hang round too long and wreck the rest of summer. We've only really got 3-4 weeks of high summer left before the quick march into autumn begins....and 1-2 weeks of this looks like it could be written off. We need a nice tropical system to stir up the atmosphere! It's been eerily quiet over the Atlantic though....

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Sorry Karl, I was also basing that on that on the other factors such as previous posts allude to.

Its hard to see anything other than trough domination for the foreseeable.

Luckily, the foreseeable isn't a long way ahead (1 to 2 weeks) and things could improve during august..I'm basing that on the law of averages.:D

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