Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

I would rather look at the short term because its so good. The Gfs 12z is still under cooking the max temps as we know that some places will reach 32c tomorrow, even 33/34c is possible and not just the 29c max shown on this run. It's an impressive plume, not as strong as a year ago but close enough and as for the thundery breakdown, it could bring severe weather to the west and north of the uk but even the south and east could have isolated intense thunderstorms on wednesday but with plenty of sunshine too with temps around 29/30c..should mention tomorrow night because records could be smashed with 22/23c minimum so a taste of proper summer, let's hope its not the last!

[bluearmy]

EURO 4 proving uppers 21/22 c for southern England late tomorrow into wednesday

cant remember seeing those numbers 

could well be record breaking night tomorrow temp wise 

[phil nw.]

Just now, bluearmy said:

EURO 4 proving uppers 21/22 c for southern England late tomorrow into wednesday

cant remember seeing those numbers 

could well be record breaking night tomorrow temp wise 

Yes was just looking at that BA.

Midnight tomorrow as a snapshot

very humid for many-a difficult night for sleeping.

Thankfully some fresher air is waiting out west to come in Weds/Thurs.

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

EURO 4 proving uppers 21/22 c for southern England late tomorrow into wednesday

cant remember seeing those numbers 

could well be record breaking night tomorrow temp wise 

I will take a stab at somewhere not going below 23deg tomorrow night Blue,that would be t shirt weather until bedtime

[knocker]

49 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

In some parts yes knocker - but the warm air never leaves the SE corner until next Monday (a week from now) on the GFS run, with the UKMO broadly similar (850s over 10c still, meaning temps around 25c still in spots). After this it all depends how the trough interacts. We will need some luck to stop it sliding right over the UK, but for now specific detail will be hard to nail down. I'll just enjoy the next week down here, it could well end up being the best week of the whole summer.

Well that is debatable as 12z Thursday is around average. Saturday average and Sunday a little above. But of course that doesn't rule out it being quite pleasantly warm

Edited July 18, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I will take a stab at somewhere not going below 23deg tomorrow night Blue,that would be t shirt weather until bedtime

Tomorrow nights minimum...phew what a.. I think the models have handled this hot snap well, some were hinting at this over a week ago, especially the Gem.

[northwestsnow]

I have sneaky feeling ecm might be an improvement this evening,it looks similar to the GEM at 96, it seems to be have more influence from high pressure across Scandy- and GEM is a really nice run out to next tues, we'll see..

[Matthew.]

Tarmac set to melt tomorrow and railway lines to buckle. 35c is not out of the question. That's a mere 3c off the record

[Summer Sun]

This was NAVGEM on Friday for tomorrow

It does get some stick but that looks a pretty good shout to me with the beeb going for 35c in the south midlands tomorrow

Edited July 18, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean shows the Azores ridge building across the south of the uk by the weekend so becoming fine and staying warm, in fact, becoming warmer as the ridge holds across the south next week too...so, beyond the plume there is no dramatic deterioration and we can expect more good weather further south but more changeable across the north of the uk, specifically n.Ireland and scotland.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This was NAVGEM on Friday for tomorrow

It does get some stick but that looks a pretty good shout to me with the beeb going for 35c in the south midlands tomorrow

It's amazing to me how the Gfs is still under cooking the max temps at almost T+0 hours, quite ridiculous...The lesser models have been much more impressive. 

[northwestsnow]

Yes the ecm does look better and offers a generally warm and dry weekend for many,esp the south and east further away from any grot from the trough.

Longer term still looks really dodgy with some horrid blocking across Greenland.

But, a good 5 or 6 days of summer weather on offer from ECM.

edit ecm keeps the south warm and settled into the start of next week perhaps the midlands too, lovely stuff..:)

Edited July 18, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Karl. said:

It's amazing to me how the Gfs is still under cooking the max temps at almost T+0 hours, quite ridiculous...The lesser models have been much more impressive. 

Agreed unless my eye sight is failing me I can't even see 30c for tomorrow from the latest GFS its likely to be out by a good 6c pretty bad with less than 24 hours to go....

Edited July 18, 2016 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

The ecm has the ingress of the cooler air slightly later at Thursday 00z followed by the next frontal system Friday morning giving away briefly to a ridge before the next front arrives Saturday evening. These fronts mainly effecting the west and north although the weekend one does track SE across Britain. Temps generally around average but possibly a little above at times, particularly in the SE.

Edited July 18, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Agreed unless my eye sight is failing me I can't even see 30c for tomorrow from the latest GFS its likely to be out by a good 6c pretty bad with less than 24 hours to go....

Yes Gavin it's ridiculous, Gfs shows 27/29c max tomorrow but other models + BBC say 31-34c or even 35c tomorrow in parts of the midlands..

[Man With Beard]

14 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm has the ingress of the cooler air slightly later at Thursday 00z followed by the next frontal system Friday morning giving away briefly to a ridge before the next front arrives Saturday evening. These fronts mainly effecting the west and north although the weekend one does track SE across Britain. Temps generally around average but possibly a little above at times, particularly in the SE.

Well at least ECM and GFS are now on speaking terms with regards the weekend! Average or just above - I can see Friday to Sunday maxing out between 24C and 27C in places (which is what just above average is for late July). And troughing makes far less impact on the UK on this ECM run. Hard to base everything on individual runs, but it seems the general tide has turned ever so slightly towards something summery. 

On the GFS temps ... of course it hasn't happened yet...but hard to see how they will be correct.

Edited July 18, 2016 by Man With Beard

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well at least ECM and GFS are now on speaking terms with regards the weekend! Average or just above - I can see Friday to Sunday maxing out between 24C and 27C in places (which is what just above average is for late July). And troughing makes far less impact on the UK on this ECM run. Hard to base everything on individual runs, but it seems the general tide has turned ever so slightly towards something summery. 

I think the ecm run epitomises what one would expect with this upper air pattern. Ditto the GFS.

[northwestsnow]

Well im quite satisfied with the ECM this evening, as prev mentioned its better the further south and east you are but its a better run than the 0z.

Also at day10 looks suspiciously like a west based negNAO setting up which might actually prove to be very good news for warmies

[Frosty.]

Glorious charts from the Ecm 12z that we have waited nearly 7 weeks of summer for!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well im quite satisfied with the ECM this evening, as prev mentioned its better the further south and east you are but its a better run than the 0z.

Also at day10 looks suspiciously like a west based negNAO setting up which might actually prove to be very good news for warmies

Yes no complaints from me, the Ecm 12z shows the Azores ridge building in across the south from Friday, the charts still look summery compared to the dross so far this summer...it's good news for the southern half of the uk at least and the GEFS 12z mean is similar.

[knocker]

The ecm Sat. midday chart again showing the Cool/warmer air interaction.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Windows 10 weather app really looks undercooked and its done so all day. Don't know why bother using it, today was hotter in Sheffield at 28c than it will be tomorrow (27c) and Manchester going at 28c tomorrow when beeb are showing 31c. 

 

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[damianslaw]

Now firmly in 'high summer' and bang on cue with have some proper summer conditions to talk about, everything very June 30/Jul 1 2015 esque, not quite the same potent plume of continental air, but not far off. My hunch is 34 degrees will be reached but not quite 35 degrees, we shall see.. It does look a very shortlived spell of heat, come Thursday whole UK under the influence of a westerly airstream with temps back down to average for late July, this theme looks like continuing for the foreseeable thereafter, with two forces at work, the azores high trying to ridge NE, but coming unstuck against the position of the jetstream which is being influenced by the other more dominant force, i.e. strong heights building to the NW, this force looks like scuppering any potential for sustained warm settled condition, the trough simply has nowhere to go other than find its summer home over the UK - so it looks very much back to normal business as we end July. Still come the weekend, the SE at least will have experienced a very decent week of mostly high temps, sunshine and dry weather, the NW a 2 day summer affair at best.

[knocker]

Firstly today. Very hot and increasingly humid with storms arriving in the NW later today and into tomorrow some of which could be quite violent, These temps may be under cooked in some areas and 35C could well be reached.

The next ten days according to the GFS. Generally unsettled with frontal systems arriving Friday ad Sunday and a small low next week. These will impact the west and north west rather more than the SE Temps generally around average but leaning towards a NW/SE divide but becoming below average at the end of the period.

 

[terrier]

Looking at the gfs this morning doesn't fill me with great enthusiasm for us in the northwest looks like after today we will see storms later today then looking at next few days looks like a mixture of sunshine and showers temps returning back to average. Better further south but as the weekend approaches looks like turning unsettled for most especially Sunday so make the most of today looks like all going bang later tonight with some violent storms around.