Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Gordon Webb]

24 minutes ago, Tamara said:

moral of this post is make the most of today

Edited July 19, 2016 by Polar Maritime
space saving.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

moral of this post is make the most of today

Not sure about that, tomorrow looks hot again further s / se with 30/31c again possible. Looks stormy in the north tomorrow.

[Frosty.]

It's easy to believe tomorrow will be another very warm / hot day because records could be smashed tonight, following such a scorcher today with 35/36c locally, the minimum tonight could only drop to 23/24c the mid 70's F which is what you would expect in the Caribbean but not the uk..mid 80's F tomorrow in the s / e looks very likely as there should again be lots of sunshine.

[knocker]

Not down here as we already have total cloud cover with a layer of Ac.

[knocker]

Last night's EC32 update shows little significant change in the upper pattern, keeping in mind the waxing and waning of the trough and Atlantic HP, out to the 15th August at least.

Edited July 19, 2016 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Tamara said:

Todays heat marks an appropriate opportunity to put an otherwise unremarkable summer so far into context.

Tamara, love your posts, love your methods (though struggle to grasp them due to my low IQ), reasonable assumptions ... but something is just not quite right this summer. I haven't seen anything but doom and gloom forecasts for the summer since May (aside from the Met Office). D10-D15 anomaly forecasts have usually looked pretty iffy so far. 

Yet here we are with a well above average June, and, by the middle of next week, July may also be comfortably above average. Models keep showing improvements between D5 and D10 in my subjective opinion - the only period that didn't was the first half of July (where the forecasts were so bad there was no room for them to get any better!!).

My feeling - far less scientific than yours and mainly just as a consequence of seeing tens of thousands of charts through the years - is that this summer has been forecast to be terrible, but is ending up not so terrible and in fact is improving rapidly. 

Why have the doom and gloom forecasts gone wrong? Why was no one able to predict this heatwave, or indeed, make room even for its possibility, not 14 days ago?? 

In my opinion, if we are to learn on this thread, we need to spend as much time looking back than forward (I accept you've done this in part, but others haven't)

[Summer Sun]

GFS is going for high pressure to rebuild on Friday not as hot as now but pleasant enough

EDIT

UKMO agrees

Possibly a bit more unsettled in the North by Sunday but drier further south and SE

Edited July 19, 2016 by Summer Sun

[mb018538]

Doesn't look too bad, typical fare really. Ridge protecting things in the SE, low pressure influence felt further NW, temps around average. By no means a washout though!

[Summer Sun]

Can't complain at this run from UKMO with high pressure rebuilding quite quickly

[Nouska]

57 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Why have the doom and gloom forecasts gone wrong? Why was no one able to predict this heatwave, or indeed, make room even for its possibility, not 14 days ago?? 

I'm guessing the MO had some ensemble members showing this as it was mentioned as an outside possibilty in their longer range forecasts. This ECM EPSgram (Oxford) from ten days ago shows the heatwave as an extreme outlier - I suspect other in house models showed similar but set against the background signals was not favoured option and in any case, was dropped for the next few days.

 

 

 

 

[March]

To be fair the Met Office predicted a better chance of an above average summer temperature wise than below average. 

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, March said:

To be fair the Met Office predicted a better chance of an above average summer temperature wise than below average. 

Yes indeed- I did acknowledge that in my post

[knocker]

Out to day ten the GFS is unsettled, changeable, varied, sod it, cool and wet.

Edited July 19, 2016 by knocker

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

 

Why have the doom and gloom forecasts gone wrong? Why was no one able to predict this heatwave, or indeed, make room even for its possibility, not 14 days ago?? 

 

Your kidding right? The Summer has been pretty poor in this neck of the woods and the heatwave as you call it is a one day wonder!

And with the latest GFS showing the trough parked around the North West, I see no prolonged dry spell at all.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z op shows the Azores ridge extending across the south this weekend and through most of next week it's the south which has the driest, sunniest and warmest weather, however, it's not completely dry in the south as a band of showery rain pushes east on sunday and monday looks changeable too but next tues/wed/thurs look fine and warm in the south..so, south is best. The north / northwest looks generally changeable / unsettled with lower temperatures and by friday next week it becomes cooler, unsettled and trough dominated across all areas.

Further ahead, occasional weak ridging across the s / e with more settled and warmer interludes and the most unsettled weather further northwest. In the meantime, a record warm night to come, no lower than 23c in places and then the southeast quadrant looks sunny and very warm tomorrow with 29/30c with the chance of an isolated intense thunderstorm but northern uk looks very disturbed tomorrow with heavy rain and embedded severe storms, high humidity with very gusty winds around but temps well down on today. Thursday becomes fresher from the west but still warm in the south at 23c, similar on Friday and both days bring sunny spells but also a risk of showery rain which could be heavy, Saturday looks better further south.

[northwestsnow]

Ukmo looks very nice this evening !

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Much better than GFS  12 z for sure- will say the 144 looks a tad ominous put hey ho..

EDIT GEM turns on the hairdryer lol

Edited July 19, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Gordon Webb]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

Out to day ten the GFS is unsettled, changeable, varied, sod it, cool and wet.

could be worse could be cool , wet and windy

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

GEM turns on the hairdryer lol

Yes the GEM 12z is a cracker, especially from later next week it turns into a rerun of what we have now..I would take that run without hesitation!

[Gordon Webb]

19 minutes ago, Karl. said:

The Gfs 12z op shows the Azores ridge extending across the south this weekend and through most of next week it's the south which has the driest, sunniest and warmest weather, however, it's not completely dry in the south as a band of showery rain pushes east on sunday and monday looks changeable too but next tues/wed/thurs look fine and warm in the south..so, south is best. The north / northwest looks generally changeable / unsettled with lower temperatures and by friday next week it becomes cooler, unsettled and trough dominated across all areas.

Further ahead, occasional weak ridging across the s / e with more settled and warmer interludes and the most unsettled weather further northwest. In the meantime, a record warm night to come, no lower than 23c in places and then the southeast quadrant looks sunny and very warm tomorrow with 29/30c with the chance of an isolated intense thunderstorm but northern uk looks very disturbed tomorrow with heavy rain and embedded severe storms, high humidity with very gusty winds around but temps well down on today. Thursday becomes fresher from the west but still warm in the south at 23c, similar on Friday and both days bring sunny spells but also a risk of showery rain which could be heavy, Saturday looks better further south.

looks relatively pleasant in the south not scorching hot but no wash out either first time I've actually took the time to go through the charts you posted , I will admit I've tended to think you've cherry picked charts in the past and have basically ignored your posts , I see now that is a mistake and actually does you a disservice something I won't do again sorry about that

[terrier]

Well what a schorcher its been today. Looking at the gfs tonight it does seems as though we will see a return to fresher air coming in from the Atlantic into next week with the south fairing best for holding onto the warmth air longest then out into fi it seems we are once again into a showery cooler set up. Gem is pick of bunch if you want to see this pattern persist but it's very much out on its own this evening. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean for this weekend & next week, on the face of it the charts look decent for mid summer across the south of the uk with weak Azores / Atlantic ridging extending into southern areas at times with some dry and warm weather with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius. Saturday looks nice for many, however there is some showery rain in the forecast too for later this week but with sunny spells too and the south generally should have the best of the weather both this weekend and next week with the most changeable / unsettled weather further north / west with temps closer to average as a trough sits to the NW / N.

[mb018538]

Got to love GEMs enthusiasm!! But it does show you what may look like uninspiring Synoptics can sometimes deliver the goods if the stars align. As none of the others agree we will have to assume it's a big outlier for now, but nothing looks desperately bad, just standard UK summer fayre.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Got to love GEMs enthusiasm!! 

Funnily enough it was the Gem model which first picked up on the current mini heatwave last week and I hope its on to something for later next week onwards as it almost mirrors the build up to this lovely little spell.

[Frosty.]

For anyone who hasn't seen the end of the Gem 12z discussed above, here it is 

Looking at the Ecm 12z, it's not a bad run by this summer's low standards, we manage to squeeze out another very warm and sunny day further s / se tomorrow but stormy in the north and thurs / fri look fresher and mixed with sunshine and showery rain but there is some welcome Azores ridging, at least across the south of the uk and its generally warm further south with some dry and sunny weather..so, not settled but not really unsettled either..changeable with most of the showery and cooler weather further to the n / nw and the run ends fine and warm in the south.

[knocker]

Tonight's anomalies are very much as expected with a positive anomaly Greenland, ridge Scandinavia and the fluctuating trough/Azores HP scenario. Thus episodic weather patterns over the UK of sunny periods and that of more unsettled with periods of rain. These patterns still tending towards a N/S split which also favours the temperature distribution but on the whole this is around average. This evening's deterministic runs are what you would expect within this pattern.