Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

Today.

Most of the country in a light NW Pm airstream so fresher with some showers around.

From the GFS

After today brief ridging before a small perturbation runs along the south of England with some showery rain ( A bit quicker than previously forecast) before the frontal systems associated with the depression to west arrive Wednesday bringing rain to most  The aformentioned depression moves slowly east bringing a showery westerly regime on Thursday. This depression slowly fills to the north of Scotland and there is brief ridging in the south of England before the next low arrives on Saturday with some wet weather for the north. This is followed by an HP cell for the rest of the ten day period. Thus a changeable period with periods of rain, more particularly in the north interspersed with some not unpleasant sunny periods. Temps around average but cooler towards the end of the period.

[Frosty.]

7 hours ago, snowy weather said:

Just looking to learn more, what does this chart show?

Thanks in advance

sunshine and showers, most sunshine further south, most frequent showers further north..sums up the next few days.

[knocker]

The brief incursion of HP into the southern half of the UK around the 9, 10 day period as the upper air has this temporary (as indicated last night) transtion with heights rising to the west thus facilitating this is shown on both the ecm and GFS this morning.

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

The brief incursion of HP into the southern half of the UK around the 9, 10 day period as the upper air has this temporary (as indicated last night) transtion with heights rising to the west thus facilitating this is shown on both the ecm and GFS this morning.

Indeed Knocker ... when pitched against last night's runs, the 00zs show we are quite a way from even pinning down T144. The unsettled and the warm/settled paths are separated by very little at the moment. All to play for as we head into August!

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Indeed Knocker ... when pitched against last night's runs, the 00zs show we are quite a way from even pinning down T144. The unsettled and the warm/settled paths are separated by very little at the moment. All to play for as we head into August!

Yes it's finely balanced, we just need a bit of luck..or lady luck...give us some good news tamara

[markyo]

28 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Yes it's finely balanced, we just need a bit of luck..or lady luck...give us some good news tamara

As every the optimist good to see! I'm still waiting for that signal of a trend shift,not seen it yet i'm afraid,way to much variables to take any real punt at how August plays out in my opinion,as ever i am hoping for a lack of real heat but fully understand the hunt for it continues!

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, markyo said:

As every the optimist good to see! I'm still waiting for that signal of a trend shift,not seen it yet i'm afraid,way to much variables to take any real punt at how August plays out in my opinion,as ever i am hoping for a lack of real heat but fully understand the hunt for it continues!

Fingers crossed, I would settle for a decent incursion of the Azores high at some point in august..surely not too much to ask is it?

 

[Frosty.]

Yesterday the Gem 00z looked fantastic for southern UK from next weekend onwards but something has gone very wrong now. ...more runs needed!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 00z, for most of the run its unsettled with temperatures nothing to write home about but then there is quite a change for the better, at least for the south with increasingly fine and very warm weather.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean has upgraded the Azores high / ridge potential from the end of next week onwards with a fine and warm spell indicated, at least for the southern half of the UK..hopefully this will be the trend.

[northwestsnow]

Yes Karl, August still up for grabs IMHO.

GEFS mean and the ECM at day 10 give hope for something more settled as we head into the second week, hopefully something recognized in the meto update today.:)

[Frosty.]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes Karl, August still up for grabs IMHO.

GEFS mean and the ECM at day 10 give hope for something more settled as we head into the second week, hopefully something recognized in the meto update today.:)

Agreed mate I'm more encouraged by what I've seen from most of the models this morning..fingers crossed we will have a decent warm settled spell in the not too distant future.

[markyo]

 

May happen,very short little trip over if it did though and thats me being optimistic! Not in your league though on that front

[Buzz]

Has anyone else noticed that the summer model outputs are like the winter "jam tomorrow" model outputs? For example, we are often seeing pleasant, warm, settled weather modelled a week or so hence, then as the days go by this is steadily pushed back. The same goes for the winter easterlies (or any potent northerlies) - often progged, rarely realised. Or maybe we're just guilty of looking too far ahead - perhaps my "model watching 3 day rule" should also apply to summer, therefore take anything past 3 days with a grain of salt.

[Gael_Force]

12 hours ago, snowy weather said:

Just looking to learn more, what does this chart show?

Thanks in advance

I see your question has been well answered by others and a great tutorial as well. TY all.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run shows plenty of fine and warm weather, especially further s / e but some changeable / unsettled spells too. Most of the week ahead shows a mix of sunshine and a few showers but bands of persistent rain spilling in off the Atlantic during Mon / Tues and then gradually becoming drier and brighter further south during midweek. Next Friday and into the weekend looks good with warm sunshine under a ridge of high pressure, just a weakening band of rain sliding SE but apart from that it looks nice. Into the following week shows an Atlantic high extending a ridge across the UK and for a time it's cooler with sunshine and a few showers and a Nw'ly breeze but then the high ridges in across the south with more fine and warm weather across southern uk. The north ends up with most of the rain and Atlantic conditions but later in the run we all turn more unsettled again..it's a decent run though, at least for England and Wales.

[knocker]

I'm afraid I don't see much to be optimistic about in last night or this morning's anomalies. Taking the EPS for example.

The 6-10 shows a positively tilted trough mid Atlantic which, during the upper air transition towards the end of this period will allow heights to build over southern England, But this is all to brief as the heights to the west continue to build it will realign the trough unfavourable for us, Squash any northern movement of the HP, veer the upper wind, and introduce cooler air over the UK. Not that it got that warm. This pattern continues in the ext period but with everything sliding slowly east so that by the end of the period the weakening ridge is to the W/SW and problably influencing England. Temps remaining in general slightly below average

Edited July 30, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm afraid I don't see much to be optimistic about in last night or this morning's anomalies. Taking the EPS for example.

The 6-10 shows a positively tilted trough mid Atlantic which, during the upper air transition towards the end of this period will allow heights to build over southern England, But this is all to brief as the heights to the west continue to build it will realign the trough unfavourable for us, veer the upper wind, and introduce cooler air over the UK. Not that it got that warm. This pattern continues in the ext period but with everything sliding slowly east so that by the end of the period the weakening ridge is to the W/SW and problably influencing England. Temps remaining in general slightly below average

Hi knocker, 

I was only describing the Gfs 6z op run in isolation..not the EPS. I've seen worse and the s / e doesn't do bad at all for sunshine and pleasantly warm temps. It's far from perfect but it's no august washout, far from it.

[knocker]

Karl

I wasn't referring to your post when I posted. In fact I hadn't even read it as you posted as I was typing. My post is just my opinion of the outlook which is not brilliant IMO but of course we are not talking washouts here and obviously there will be pleasant interludes, more particularly in the south. But the temps in general do not look any better than average and even possible a tad below. As far as August goes, who knows, so I'm really only considering the next 14 days. Although I'm not holding my breath.

Edited July 30, 2016 by knocker

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Buzz said:

Has anyone else noticed that the summer model outputs are like the winter "jam tomorrow" model outputs? For example, we are often seeing pleasant, warm, settled weather modelled a week or so hence, then as the days go by this is steadily pushed back. The same goes for the winter easterlies (or any potent northerlies) - often progged, rarely realised. Or maybe we're just guilty of looking too far ahead - perhaps my "model watching 3 day rule" should also apply to summer, therefore take anything past 3 days with a grain of salt.

It does often seem to be the case, but bare in mind that an Azores High in August is much more common than an easterly in say December. Maybe a Spanish plume could be considered the seasonal equivalent.

I'm glad the height rises from the south are still a strong signal. Must admit I was a bit dubious about the extent of high pressure shown on the 00Z and I think the 06Z is more plausible as it still shows the struggle against low pressure to the northwest. As ever, more runs needed. It's all to play for imo.

 

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

Karl

I wasn't referring to your post when I posted. In fact I hadn't even read it as you posted as I was typing. My post is just my opinion of the outlook which is not brilliant IMO but of course we are not talking washouts here and obviously there will be pleasant interludes, more particularly in the south. But the temps in general do not look any better than average and even possible a tad below. As far as August goes, who knows, so I'm really only considering the next 14 days. Although I'm not holding my breath.

Hi knocker,

Sorry for any confusion, my fault..your opinion is usually right, It's just I saw some decent things on the Gfs 6z op.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Karl. said:

Hi knocker,

Sorry for any confusion, my fault..your opinion is usually right, It's just I saw some decent things on the Gfs 6z op.

Whoa, I'm not saying I'm right. At the end of the day it's just my opinion and the reasons for it.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Whoa, I'm not saying I'm right. At the end of the day it's just my opinion and the reasons for it.

More right than I will ever be

Anyway, thanks for posting those EPS anomalies, they are a very good guide for medium / longer range forecasting.

[Frosty.]

Well I'm pleased with the GEFS mean trend today, if anything the 6z mean is even better in terms of fine and pleasantly warm weather in the medium range, much improved on the last day or so. Hopefully after the rather unsettled week ahead we will see an improvement.

[Frosty.]

Nice looking Gem 12z from next weekend to the end of the run with high pressure becoming dominant and temps rising into the mid to upper 20's celsius.