Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[carl1980]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Very warm and humid with strong sunshine. Currently  23.4°C which is the maximum.

Few clouds starting to bubble up now

[ChezWeather]

First cell developed south of Manchester? 

[Harry]

This poxy cloud just isn't shifting. Grrrrr

[Chris.R]

5 minutes ago, carl1980 said:

Few clouds starting to bubble up now

 Feeling  hopeful that something will develop later in the evening, I reckon just before sunset. I'm thinking stuff might  kickoff near you and drift Westwood towards me.   Cells could go from nothing to something substantial very  rapidly if they punch through the cap

[Milocation]

will the thunderstorms from france make it anyone???

[Wivenswold]

Very unlikely I'd say. NEMS has storms heading SW.

I'll be delighted if I'm wrong though. 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, LimoPreacherman said:

will the thunderstorms from france make it anyone???

I think they are surface based but it has been known, In july a few years back a surface based MCS did make it across, but it was warmer temp wise before hand, and the Channel was probably quite a bit warmer to.

[William Grimsley]

@Wivenswold, no they're heading W not SW. Anyway, the won't get here, they're not elevated.

Anyway, thinking about tomorrow, I'm still going to go for it and the Met Office is one again going for thunderstorms across Somerset pretty much over the area I was last time so I have a good feeling I'll catch something tomorrow! Bring it on!

[Milocation]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

I think they are surface based but it has been known, In july a few years back a surface based MCS did make it across, but it was warmer temp wise before hand, and the Channel was probably quite a bit warmer to.

thanks, hoping for it! @Wivenswold I'll be too, we could just get something!

[Milocation]

First uk strike of the afternoon!!!

Edited June 4, 2016 by LimoPreacherman

[alexisj9]

Just now, LimoPreacherman said:

thanks, hoping for it! @Wivenswold I'll be too, we could just get something!

If they are heading SW it's even more unlikely to be honest, didn't look, I assumed as you asked they were heading this way.

[WillinGlossop]

24c humid feeling oppressive... I'm not complaining....dogs walked, bathed... Cloudy bay opened, ribs on grill, gone very hazy out... Sultry... Can see clouds blooming to sw  nr wilmslow...

Ps my brother in Denmark is on beach in 30c with thunderstorm in distance over Sweden..

Edited June 4, 2016 by WillinGlossop

[Mesoscale]

2 minutes ago, LimoPreacherman said:

First uk strike of the afternoon!!!

Its a false positive. 

[Milocation]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

If they are heading SW it's even more unlikely to be honest, didn't look, I assumed as you asked they were heading this way.

There is still a chance, its just that if its surface based it could make it or it could die. We are about to find out - http://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=51.7538;x=3.828;z=7;t=4;m=sat;r=0;s=200;d=2;a=2;dc=0;o=0;n=0;b=;dl=2;

[Milocation]

2 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

24c humid feeling oppressive... I'm not complaining....dogs walked, bathed... Cloudy bay opened, ribs on grill, gone very hazy out... Sultry... Can see clouds blooming to sw  nr wilmslow....

There is a cell West of there, who knows

[Milocation]

6 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Its a false positive. 

how does that work???

[Mesoscale]

1 minute ago, LimoPreacherman said:

how does that work???

Not sure but the strike was shown within an area that not only had no precip but there were also no clouds! haha

 

[Milocation]

lol, maybe a rare occurence

[William Grimsley]

Me likes this very muchly!

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 05 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 06 Jun 2016

ISSUED 15:04 UTC Sat 04 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad Omega Block pattern persists, with ridging aloft atop a warm, moist high WBPT airmass. Like Saturday, there may be some hints of residual medium-level instability close to SE England first thing on Sunday morning, but the overall theme will be diurnal heating and low-level convergence / orographic forcing creating sufficient forcing for localised deep convection - and hence isolated to well-scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late afternoon through the evening hours. 

SLGTs have been issued where confidence is a little higher for at least some isolated thunderstorm development, but there will be scope outside of these areas for other isolated cells - with potential for the SLGT to perhaps be extended across Wiltshire / Dorset / Hampshire / Somerset etc if confidence improves.

DLS is fairly weak and so convection will be rather messy and disorganised, but slow storm motion (given slack flow) in an environment characterised by PWAT 25-30mm suggests 15-18mm rainfall accumulations may occur in just 1 hour, giving a risk of local surface water issues. Hail up to 1.0cm in diameter will be possible in the strongest cells.

Also, some uncertainty, but there is the potential for elevated convection to be imported to parts of SE England later on Sunday night, hence the extension of the LOW threat level here.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-05

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

This poxy cloud just isn't shifting. Grrrrr

I thought it would have cleared quicker in your vicinity.. The sun is out here, although you'd never know it if you were looking at the satellite.

[Supacell]

I am thinking of chasing tomorrow, but thinking of going against current thinking of towards the Bristol channel and heading NW towards the Lake District instead. Final decisions will be made in the morning.

[Mapantz]

 

41 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Me likes this very muchly!

 

Similar:

 

Yeovil or Taunton for you tomorrow!

[Raidan]

2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I am thinking of chasing tomorrow, but thinking of going against current thinking of towards the Bristol channel and heading NW towards the Lake District instead. Final decisions will be made in the morning.

Is that because you dont see anything happening in the Bristol/Bristol channel area?

[Supacell]

6 minutes ago, Raidan said:

Is that because you dont see anything happening in the Bristol/Bristol channel area?

No I still think Bristol/Bristol Channel look favorable for something late on tomorrow but a lot of models now showing a chance around the Lake District and NW England too. The mountain area forecasts I look at are also showing thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon.

The main reason for my possible change of plan is that Lake District may ignite earlier and be over with earlier which means I can get home in time to get a decent sleep before work on Monday. Some models hold anything around Bristol back until late evening. I still may head that way yet though, it all depends on the morning forecasts and models.

I have been known to pull all nighters and then work the next day 

Edited June 4, 2016 by Supacell