Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[Hodgheg]

43 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

On the topic of storm chasing, although slightly off topic but there was a programme on TV, not sure what channel but was called "Inside the Mega Twister" based on the El Reno Tornado on May 31st 2013, the best tornado documentary I have ever seen. I suggest you all check it out if your as passionate as me.

Anyhow sorry for being off topic!

Often can't stand shows that usually big up weather events. This one didn't need that though. It's one of the most fascinating storms to have happened in our lifetime and there's tonnes of info on it on YouTube. The amount of hours I've spent watching stuff and reading stuff. Off topic, apologies. 

Back on topic I see the chances are being eroded  away as usual. 

[weather09]

Worth reminding that we are situated under ridging aloft and general atmospheric subsidence (sinking air), with no forcing at that level. However in this case it's not an overly stout ridge and can be more than countered by strong heating and lift by low-level convergence.  But it's the main reason for the lack of activity, and why any storms that do develop are likely to be isolated or scattered. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Well today the lack of storms probably helped no end as I was able to focus on turning our previous dumping-ground of a walled garden into something I'm actually still stunned to look at (will provide pictures tomo when I've fully cleaned the decking).

This surely would not have been possible if the sun came out and triggered local storms and heavy rain - so for this one occasion I respect Mo Natch from unleashing chaos on this part of the world...

BUT - that's not to say tomorrow I don't want to see huge tornadoes and prolific lightning beating down on our good island - indeed I do!

It is for this reason I'll be studying the charts throughout the morning and provisionally plan to head down the M3 to Andover and observe the situation from there. I'll be setting up the bed in the van just in case it turns out to be an overnight show but I honestly don't have any expectations.

Radar watching is key on setups like this - so anyone who pre-plans or expects definite results should beware - this is the UK & it does what it wants!

Edited June 4, 2016 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Allseasons-Si]

Some cells have fired up on the south NL's coast,could be a Kent clipper

[Frosty hollows]

3 hours ago, William Grimsley said:

It's too far north for me! I don't want to exactly push myself to go towards the M4, especially at my age! LOL!

Midsomer Norton seems to be a sweet spot for storms, though

 

[Frosty hollows]

48 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Well today the lack of storms probably helped no end as I was able to focus on turning our previous dumping-ground of a walled garden into something I'm actually still stunned to look at (will provide pictures tomo when I've fully cleaned the decking).

This surely would not have been possible if the sun came out and triggered local storms and heavy rain - so for this one occasion I respect Mo Natch from unleashing chaos on this part of the world...

BUT - that's not to say tomorrow I don't want to see huge tornadoes and prolific lightning beating down on our good island - indeed I do!

It is for this reason I'll be studying the charts throughout the morning and provisionally plan to head down the M3 to Andover and observe the situation from there. I'll be setting up the bed in the van just in case it turns out to be an overnight show but I honestly don't have any expectations.

Radar watching is key on setups like this - so anyone who pre-plans or expects definite results should beware - this is the UK & it does what it wants!

Completely off topic, but I've almost constructed a new decking area/ garden seat this week. Usually this is a more reliable harbinger of heavy showers than normal models, but showed itself as unreliable as anything else.Storms are down to now casting by and large...if not for the cloud today could have been very different here.Local topography makes us a bit of a drought area for storms..last months bypassed us completely despite the local records!So, storm are by nature capricious.Good luck storm chasers

[Allseasons-Si]

We have ignition off the coast of NL's but i think it will ride along the Belgium/france coast.

[alexisj9]

Can't see anything at NL's coast now, must have been a pulse storm. Or lightning maps is still playing up.

[Allseasons-Si]

20 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Can't see anything at NL's coast now, must have been a pulse storm. Or lightning maps is still playing up.

Lightning maps not playing up,died of death now.

[Raidan]

BBC just annoyed me with there forecast was interested in what they had to say about Sunday evening and over night yet they got as far as 4pm then jumped to Monday and the rest of the week not a very informative forecast by them.

[Raidan]

Lol just after posting that there was another forecast which did give a lot more info than the last one maybe he needed the loo and was in a rush to get off set in the other one, Anyway there was the mention of storms but whether I will see anything I'm not sure will have to wait and see.

[Buckster]

Flying to Stansted this morning from Rome

Hoping to spot some developing Cu ..

 In the distance hopefully

Spotted some fantastic storms yesterday were a long way off

[SteveB]

Cloudy start, and looking at sat24 there's a lot of cloud around.

Not a good start to proceedings. Hope this burns off quick. 

[Supacell]

This mornings runs are on the whole similar to last night. It is a case of respectable CAPE across southern and western areas, no shear to speak of at all, a cap which can be broke providing we get enough surface heating and numerous convergence zones. Put all this together and the risk of storms is going to be where those convergence zones exist and dependant on the sun coming out. Cloud is still quite extensive this morning, hopefully it can burn off. If it does it will be the first time around here that the sun has been out for any length of time since over a week ago!
Convergence zones are near to southern and western areas where sea breezes collide with each other or against the light ENE wind flow. CAPE is highest towards the south and southwest. GFS still showing some very reasonable CAPE values by late afternoon/evening and NMM is even higher.

   

The GFS break out showers across Cumbria and west Wales shortly after midday as a result of surface heating and convergence zones. Further showers and storms look to break out just inland from western and southern coasts all the way from W Scotland to the S Wales and then from Somerset across to SW London. These rumble on into the first part of the night. 

Worryingly, the NMM does not break out much at all away from the NW and far west of Wales. Although it does show something later evening, not much though considering the amount of CAPE being forecast. Euro4 unfortunately even worse if it is storms you are after with very little precipitation away from W Scotland and the odd spot over Cumbria.

  

The Met Office do show showers and storms developing in similar areas to the GFS so some hope there.
Overall I am not as confident as I want to be. I do think somebody will see a storm today, though they will be isolated and the vast majority of places will stay dry. Any storms that do develop today will be fairly short lived but would likely contain torrential rainfall (PWAT values up at 25-28mm). With CAPE values as high as being forecast any storms that develop could also contain hail and be briefly quite active with frequent lightning. 
I am going to sit tight for a few hours and watch as to whether there are any areas within the risk zones mentioned above whereby the sun comes out and temperatures start to rise. This could be a good precursor to the likelihood of a storm. 

EDIT: Looks from the satellite pictures that NW England, far W Midlands and N Wales are already seeing the sunshine
 

Edited June 5, 2016 by Supacell

[Weather-history]

Can see altocumulus castellanus to the west

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning Gang, if you are planning to go out today in my opinion I would be sitting on the Severn bridge lol! 

Problem is, like yesterday already there is a load of low level cloud on SAT it's no way as built up as yesterday but it's there.

The highest Cape is forcast to kick off further East and push West today.

There really is very limited lift and spark so you just gotta pray that the heat builds in and some wind convergence goes on. 

But my sweet spot is the west coasts of Wales today sun already out there.

You can have pretty colours on a charts but if you don't have all the pretty colours across a number of charts then you got a few probs.

[Chris K]

Yes personally I feel if any storms do develop they will be fairly isolated. Met office show a few breaking out across the South but all looks quite uninspiring ...to me anyway.

[Darren Bown]

I can confirm that it is clear and sunny here already. I was just a little too north for the storms in Widnes yesterday, but did get 7 or 8 long rumbles of thunder as we ate outside.

[carl1980]

Met office app just updated, showing thunderstorm symbol for 6pm today for st helens 

Edited June 5, 2016 by carl1980

[Milocation]

6 hours ago, Buckster said:

Flying to Stansted this morning from Rome

Hoping to spot some developing Cu ..

 In the distance hopefully

Spotted some fantastic storms yesterday were a long way off

be sure to take some pictures! from the plane!

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-06-05 08:37:14

Valid: 05/06/2016 0600z to 06/06/2016 0600z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE FORECAST - SUN 5TH-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

An omega ridge essentially covers much of NW Europe including UK/EIRE, with upper low over the mid-N Atlantic and another upper trough over far NE Europe. Surface pressure is slack across the UK, with high pressure towards northern Scotland, lower pressure to the SW of UK and over near continent.

... NERN EIRE/N IRELAND, S/SW ENGLAND, WALES, W MIDLANDS, NW ENGLAND, W SCOTLAND ...

Despite overall ridging and absence of forcing aloft of UK, subtle weakeness in 500mb geopotential heights/temperatures across EIRE and western UK atop of warm humid airmass along with surface convergence and surface heating  may trigger isolated heavy showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon across the above areas. Storms will be very isolated, despite 400-1000(+) j/kg CAPE indicated by GFS to build across S and W UK this afternoon, due to capping of atmosphere by subsidence of ridge aloft. However, temps reaching mid 20s, orographic lift and local sea breeze boundaries developing inland maybe enough to break the cap and allow cumulonimbus clouds to reach quite high. Given any storms will be slow-moving and will be drawing on fairly moisture rich airmass, there is a risk of flash-flooding, hail and gusty winds. Due to likely isolated nature of storms and lack of shear to organise any storms that form, will refrain from issuing a marginal risk of severe weather.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited June 5, 2016 by Nick F

[Supacell]

Using the Met Office rainfall prediction tool I would say I should head up to NW England for the afternoon period and then jump on a helicopter to get back to CS England for the evening... I just wish I had one

[MattTarrant]

Well it's been raining since I woke up so very drab! It is expectionally humid however.

[Chris.R]

 Very sunny and 20.0°C already. 

[Buckster]

29 minutes ago, LimoPreacherman said:

be sure to take some pictures! from the plane!

nothing to take a photo of unfortunately

nothing really visible even in the distance - towering Cu wise

Stansted was very very low cloud- in fact our flight was delayed 20 mins due to visibility at Stansted