Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[Wilxy]

Esofex isn't that great for tomorrow so not sure whether I'll risk the chase or not tomorrow.

[William Grimsley]

5 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Esofex isn't that great for tomorrow so not sure whether I'll risk the chase or not tomorrow.

I really wouldn't make a decision based on that, they got it wrong the other times...

[Supacell]

2 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Esofex isn't that great for tomorrow so not sure whether I'll risk the chase or not tomorrow.

Yet we have charts like this from the NMM

Seems a bit OTT but imagine if that CAPE was released tomorrow evening 

Estofex have the 15% lightning within 40km of a point over us. I suppose that would be correct considering how isolated any storms will be. Today they gave a 50% lightning risk within 40km of a point but unless you live within 40km of East Cheshire you won't have been within 40km of lightning and so that risk was too high. If I lived in Bristol I would be planning to chase  

[lfcdude]

2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Yet we have charts like this from the NMM

Seems a bit OTT but imagine if that CAPE was released tomorrow evening 

Estofex have the 15% lightning within 40km of a point over us. I suppose that would be correct considering how isolated any storms will be. Today they gave a 50% lightning risk within 40km of a point but unless you live within 40km of East Cheshire you won't have been within 40km of lightning and so that risk was too high. If I lived in Bristol I would be planning to chase  

 

Looks good for salisbury plane.... But Devizes storm shield will kill anything off! But salisbury plane could be a good spot 

[Wilxy]

4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Yet we have charts like this from the NMM

Seems a bit OTT but imagine if that CAPE was released tomorrow evening 

Estofex have the 15% lightning within 40km of a point over us. I suppose that would be correct considering how isolated any storms will be. Today they gave a 50% lightning risk within 40km of a point but unless you live within 40km of East Cheshire you won't have been within 40km of lightning and so that risk was too high. If I lived in Bristol I would be planning to chase  

I have been planning not long filled the car up with petrol just noticing it didn't look as good as last weekend but it's only one forecast not always right.

[weather09]

Might have been a little different today had surface temps been widely in the low 20s. 18z analysis showed trough over W'ern half of the country which triggered the heavy showers/storms over NW parts aided by strong heating of moist air mass. Most other parts only saw modest breaks in murk aloft, so temps were a little more suppressed. 

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

No I still think Bristol/Bristol Channel look favorable for something late on tomorrow but a lot of models now showing a chance around the Lake District and NW England too. The mountain area forecasts I look at are also showing thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon.

The main reason for my possible change of plan is that Lake District may ignite earlier and be over with earlier which means I can get home in time to get a decent sleep before work on Monday. Some models hold anything around Bristol back until late evening. I still may head that way yet though, it all depends on the morning forecasts and models.

Meso. models certainly more keen to break out showers/storms over far NW, and perhaps at a more suitable time (lol), but, if I were you I'd head SW and take a chance on even one storm taking advantage of likely good CAPE environment late afternoon/evening period.  Cloud not likely to be an issue tomorrow, so you'll have a good afternoon's worth of strong heating.  Surface dewpoints up to 15C, perhaps 16C, and temps to low 20s will likely build MLCAPE close to 1000J/kg, so any storm(s) that fire in that environment likely to be potent. Looks like defined sea-breeze convergence will set up a little way inland with heating of landmass, so one means of forcing, but likely to be locally variable/converging winds generally in that region.  

Edited June 4, 2016 by weather09

[Supacell]

Thanks @weather09. Agreed, I may just have to be tired for work the next day. It's a small price to pay for seeing something half decent. Of course I do not have to set off early with storms not expected to get going until late afternoon time and so will check on the latest obs in the morning. I may end up chasing around a very similar area to where I did last week. An E'ly flow favors western areas and, as you say, even better where that light E'ly meets sea breezes from the west. My normal hunting grounds of Lincolnshire are not getting much attention from me this year yet

[William Grimsley]

4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Thanks @weather09. Agreed, I may just have to be tired for work the next day. It's a small price to pay for seeing something half decent. Of course I do not have to set off early with storms not expected to get going until late afternoon time and so will check on the latest obs in the morning. I may end up chasing around a very similar area to where I did last week. An E'ly flow favors western areas and, as you say, even better where that light E'ly meets sea breezes from the west. My normal hunting grounds of Lincolnshire are not getting much attention from me this year yet

Wanna let me know where you're heading and I could tag up?

[Convective]

A few models, MetO and GFS inclusive, suggest something breaking out over the North Irish Sea overnight... Do I believe them or not 

[Raidan]

35 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Yet we have charts like this from the NMM

Seems a bit OTT but imagine if that CAPE was released tomorrow evening 

Estofex have the 15% lightning within 40km of a point over us. I suppose that would be correct considering how isolated any storms will be. Today they gave a 50% lightning risk within 40km of a point but unless you live within 40km of East Cheshire you won't have been within 40km of lightning and so that risk was too high. If I lived in Bristol I would be planning to chase  

Like the look of that!

[William Grimsley]

Ooo, this is exciting, might I actually see something decent tomorrow! I've got to try and make sure I get in the right place though.

[StormChaseUK]

Looks like a classic "Bath tub" situation tomorrow. Bath/Somerset cells tend to spark of later afternoon and drift up into Herefordshire, Wales in evening.

[William Grimsley]

42 minutes ago, lfcdude said:

Looks good for salisbury plane.... But Devizes storm shield will kill anything off! But salisbury plane could be a good spot 

True, but thunderstorms won't develop in that exact region (unless they're completely stationary) you have to add some westerly extent to the highest amount of CAPE.

[Hodgheg]

Quite liking the charts for tuesday with the greatest cape/li being where i will be. Its not everything of course.

[Raidan]

I dont know wheather to stay put or go somewhere further south tomorrow as could see something here and would save time and money.

[Supacell]

4 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Looks like a classic "Bath tub" situation tomorrow. Bath/Somerset cells tend to spark of later afternoon and drift up into Herefordshire, Wales in evening.

This does look like a good possibility checking out the latest precipitation forecasts, although I realise they are subject to change and will probably look different in the morning.

[William Grimsley]

Just now, Supacell said:

This does look like a good possibility checking out the latest precipitation forecasts, although I realise they are subject to change and will probably look different in the morning.

It's too far north for me! I don't want to exactly push myself to go towards the M4, especially at my age! LOL!

[viking_smb]

3 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

It's too far north for me! I don't want to exactly push myself to go towards the M4, especially at my age! LOL!

the m4 is fine mate, just be careful and don't hog the middle lane lol, on weather note, not sure what is happening tomorrow personally but wait and see though.

[Wilxy]

Decided I'll be chasing tomorrow might get one of those gopros to record footage from inside the car but I'll decide that in the morning.

[Ben Sainsbury]

On the topic of storm chasing, although slightly off topic but there was a programme on TV, not sure what channel but was called "Inside the Mega Twister" based on the El Reno Tornado on May 31st 2013, the best tornado documentary I have ever seen. I suggest you all check it out if your as passionate as me.

Anyhow sorry for being off topic!

Edited June 4, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[Daniel*]

51 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

It's too far north for me! I don't want to exactly push myself to go towards the M4, especially at my age! LOL!

Your life is worth more than a thunderstorm.  

 

[Mesoscale]

9 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

On the topic of storm chasing, although slightly off topic but there was a programme on TV, not sure what channel but was called "Inside the Mega Twister" based on the El Reno Tornado on May 31st 2013, the best tornado documentary I have ever seen. I suggest you all check it out if your as passionate as me.

Anyhow sorry for being off topic!

Yeah look at this channel quite a bit of footage from him was featured in that documentary. 

https://www.youtube.com/user/honkytonkblood

Probably one of my favourite storm chasing videographers, he gets some great footage and his commentary is awesome. 

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

On the topic of storm chasing, although slightly off topic but there was a programme on TV, not sure what channel but was called "Inside the Mega Twister" based on the El Reno Tornado on May 31st 2013, the best tornado documentary I have ever seen. I suggest you all check it out if your as passionate as me.

Anyhow sorry for being off topic!

Keep missing the thing, my husband watched it though, and he doesn't normally watch weather stuff, may be he's converting.

[Speedway Slider]

Well, the sun didn't manage to show itself until around 8/8:15pm today, very , very muggy though.... The track wouldn't dry, I think it was "wicking" moisture out of the air? Is that possible? Track surface is clay/shale mix, 50/50....

Hope Sun gets out tomorrow.... Anyone chasing tomorrow have good luck and stay safe!!!

Edited June 4, 2016 by Speedway Slider
Typo..

[Greeny]

1 hour ago, Convective said:

A few models, MetO and GFS inclusive, suggest something breaking out over the North Irish Sea overnight... Do I believe them or not 

Well GFS 1 run later loses most of the MLCAPE I highlighted but does still leave a bit in the area you mention. Thought the previous run would be more accurate as it wasn't long before the actual time the forecast was for. Appreciate you backing me up with the small possibility of something overnight, thought it worth a mention as I had seen it, I tend to look for MLCAPE on night time forecasts after daytime SB potential and spotted it.

Previous..

Latest..

Note for William. Back in April's plume I think it was when there was a little bit showing that gave a possibility of elevated night time storms ended up being pretty decent in places over EA. Was hoping this residual MLCAPE + high theta-W values and decent PWAT values with nocturnal cooling would spark something (I know its not for my area) but I don't mind making 'a good call' once in a while

Edit: NMM showing more like the previous GFS run however I would still go with the GFS latest run as I tend to find it is more likely.

Edited June 4, 2016 by Greenday