Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[Supacell]

Now not far from Leigh with dark skies to my east. They look more threatening than the light rain that is coming out of it according to the radar. It's 26c and feels rather sweaty.

[Chris.R]

 27.8°C. Crazy higher than forecasted.  38.9°C in direct sunlight. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Made it as far as frimley and having a radar break. M3 right next to me so when (and if) things start happening soon I can head towards it.

can still see towers but they're not doing much

[William Grimsley]

Hello! Currently at Smeatharpe Airfield again but none of the clouds are breaking this cap, simply going up and quickly going down again, I'll stay out for maybe another hour or 2 then I'm calling it a bust.

[Raidan]

Have to say been out in the glorious sunshine for the last 3 hours and all I see is blue sky and fair weather clouds nothing at all to suggest thundery weather hope to be wrong that nothing will happen here but I'm 95% sure nothing will would be nice to end my holiday with a storm but I can't see it myself good luck to everyone else

[Darren Bown]

Looked threatening in N Manchester before, cleared a little now, but towers going up to the west again. Feeling hot again too.

[Darren Bown]

Looks like the shower over Leigh is sticking around.

[richep]

Must agree, nothing to suggest anything thundery will occur here today. Next few days look much more favourable

 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

I'm not sure why everyone is calling this a bust already? We all knew these showers in England wouldn't initiate till later, it's patience.

Then again I did hear that the critical temperature needed to start convection off was 26'c so ya know?

Edited June 5, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[William Grimsley]

Think everyone likes to beef things up a bit then starts to realise that they're wrong, think this is becoming a common occurrence, luckily I've hardly used any fuel today...

[William Grimsley]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I'm not sure why everyone is calling this a bust already? We all knew these showers in England wouldn't initiate till later, it's patience.

Reason is because none of the convection kicking off has any structure to it, if nothing starts to look good quality within the next hour then I'm not sure whether I'll stay out. LOL.

Edited June 5, 2016 by William Grimsley

[paul_montague]

In all fairness the day is not over yet. I see storms starting to get going in France now.

[Nick L]

Would hardly call it a bust. I can't recall anyone saying there would be widespread showers/storms. They were always going to be very isolated, and that's exactly what we've seen. The forecast has not been a bust.

[Paul]

1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

Reason is because none of the convection kicking off has any structure to it, if nothing starts to look good quality within the next hour then I'm not sure whether I'll stay out. LOL.

You went too early William, I think the vast majority (if not all) models were suggesting the cap in that part of the country going at around 1800-1900 BST. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Reason is because none of the convection kicking off has any structure to it, if nothing starts to look good quality within the next hour then I'm not sure whether I'll stay out. LOL.

However we saw showers develop over NW England as a result of strong dirnual heating and a convergence zone. For us Southerners, all this CAPE has built up throughout the day, the convergence zone is expected to form about 6,7,8pm.

If I'm right theres a line of cumulus stretching from Tiverton to Bournemouth, this could spark off possibly over Salisbury?

Edited June 5, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[William Grimsley]

Guys, I've only just come out! I didn't want to wait till gone 18:00 where I'd have to nearly come straight home again. I'm not making any move for quite a while yet, and yes I do fully realise that only isolated thunderstorms were forecast but there hasn't even been one yet!

[Wilxy]

5 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Reason is because none of the convection kicking off has any structure to it, if nothing starts to look good quality within the next hour then I'm not sure whether I'll stay out. LOL.

You started to call it a bust at 5pm LOL at this time of year I don't think so 2 hours left yet before you should start calling it bust.

[Mapantz]

Something will end up 'bust' if anything occurs here, I've got concrete drying..

[carl1980]

Still pritty stable around here clear skies to the south East,all the clouds seem to be East north east of me

[Darren Bown]

Even if nothing forms, it's not a bust. There was a chance. That chance may not happen.

[Chris.R]

 28.0°C! 

[Greeny]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

bubble:

 

Arg! PT!

DOES this mean the cap's been broke ?

You edited

Next thing shes wearing my rolex!

Ok back on topic, its not the first time I missed the fact we're sitting under high pressure hence my observations of some MLCAPE for last night wouldnt really amount to much. My experience of high pressure was not good the last time we were waiting for something it didnt really happen but gl all, May just need every last drop of sun to break the cap, heres hoping for you guys. Im enjoying the sunshine though its just as welcome as storms tbh. Not that humid and sweaty here in Norfolk but lovely a warm currently. Loved Cumbria and Scotland last week!

[William Grimsley]

I agree, but if you read my post carefully I said I would call it a bust in say 2 hours not now. Plus, like always, I'm talking about this area not anywhere else.

Edited June 5, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Darren Bown]

2 minutes ago, carl1980 said:

Still pritty stable around here clear skies to the south East,all the clouds seem to be East north east of me

I'm looking at the cloud from the other side. It's a shower currently over Leigh (I'm in N Manchester). Still some unorganised showers looking east.

[Wilxy]

Just now, William Grimsley said:

I agree, but if you read my post carefully I said I would call it a bust in say 2 hours not now.

I was referring to your status update from earlier