Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[Frosty hollows]

Mainland Europe gone mental again, though I bet they're as sick to death of TSs as we're eager to get them :/

[Chris.R]

The magical 80 F.  26.7°C . 

[Darren Bown]

Overcast here in Prestwich N Manchester, big clouds to the west. A small shower popped up and a cool breeze blowing now.

[Harry]

Ac and AcCas becoming a little more extensive from the East now (from my vantage point anyway)

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

bubble:

 

Arg! PT!

DOES this mean the cap's been broke ?

Edited June 5, 2016 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Chris.R]

 27.0°C. Some 2°C warmer than what GFS  forecast so perhaps the CAPE will be greater.

[carl1980]

28.1c in the garden 27c when I was out 30mins ago in the car...feeling very humid now 

[Frosty hollows]

Strike in East Anglia?

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Frosty hollows said:

Strike in East Anglia?

 

Highly unlikely - no rain there on radar

[Frosty hollows]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Highly unlikely - no rain there on radar

It's come up on blitzortung?

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

13 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

bubble:

 

Arg! PT!

DOES this mean the cap's been broke ?

We looking at the same thing?

[weatherobsuk]

The CU around Manchester have good localised structure but there's just not enough sustained lift at the moment. Though they are trying.

 

.

[carl1980]

Still blue sky over head, zoomed into this north east of me over winter hill 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

We looking at the same thing?

I think we were but it's all collapsed in on itself now :-/

[Nick F]

Towering Altocumulus going up and down this afternoon here in west London, though mostly evaporated now,

convective temperature of around 26.2C required to break the cap according to 12z Herstmonceux radiosonde ascent, though if cap broke would release around 700 j/kg CAPE:

A few sharp showers popping up across Cumbria and SW Scotland along a sea breeze boundary moving inland against synoptic easterly flow further east plus orographic uplift.

Recent satellite image shows skies mostly clear, apart from western hills (courtesy of Satellite Dundee)

BBC weather graphics indicate some showers (maybe thundery?) moving east along southern coastal area of England overnight, so maybe worth keeping an eye on later.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think we were but it's all collapsed in on itself now :-/

Energy is there, just a nice big lid on it. No spark

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

It's come up on blitzortung?

 

False strikes. There were a few earlier in the North Sea too. Usually happens when there are powerful storms over Europe like today. I always cross reference them on the rain radar to see if it marries up to any cells.

Like Steely Dan say "Thunder only happens when it's raining"

[Nick F]

21 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

bubble:

 

Arg! PT!

DOES this mean the cap's been broke ?

Needs to get higher than that to show the cap's broken

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Needs to get higher than that to show the cap's broken

It's trying as hard as it can - a few more towers going up as I type

[Chris.R]

 Well I thought it had stopped but the temperature is still rising, now 27.3°C. Something surely has got to  Break the cap  in the region soon. 

[NUT]

Definite strikes in Ireland now

[Paul]

Pleased with how the upgraded physics on the netwx model are doing so far today, with most of the main areas of convective showers. (another small update going in on the 12z too).

[carl1980]

27.4c some threatening clouds approaching now

[Chris.R]

 27.6°C . Cumulus building to the SE and E. No sea breeze just a light SEly.  Unbearably Hot in the sun. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

To be honest I'm really not worried by the small amount of showers right now over Southern areas, it's all meant to spark off this evening according to the Netwx forecasts.