Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Midlands Ice Age]

31 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Good evening all. I'm expecting this post to get moved. As I need some help finding regional forecasts. I've had Hail and snow showers on and off all afternoon and have pics. I'm using a smart phone.  And I'm newish to the this impressive  site.  I have over 30 years forecasting experience and remember the winters of 1981. 1987.1991.1995. 2010..if I can add that in most of these years winter started early November .today's 12z gfs is a  typical run not boring by any means. If we're all honest 1 month ago none off us would of expected a met office warning for heavy snow in early November .

It only seems a few days ago I was basking in my back garden and getting my beer belly sun burnt drinking strong Dutch beer and insulting the neighbours lol.

Sorepaw...

In the winter you will have no problems finding the regionals.

Just click on the latest posts or unread content buttons!!.

At other times go to HOME and then 'Community'. You will find it listed.

MIA

Edited November 7, 2016 by Midlands Ice Age

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

Potential !! 

Hey! Don't you go knocking potential. By this time most years, it's twenty-feet deep!

[bobbydog]

Just to stress the differences between this year and last year. The vortex is in a much weakened state and is forecast to stay that way. The fact that snow is forecast for anywhere other than the Scottish mountains this time of year is unusual to say the least yet some are disappointed that they won't see blizzards on the 7th of November!

Anyway, compare the vortex core on todays ECM and the same date last year-

Take that forward to the 17th-

Last year-

There was a feeble attempt mid month to break the vortex but it didn't happen. We ended up with this-

As you can see, last year, the vortex core stayed pretty much intact throughout November.

None of the models, including the best long range seasonal models, are suggesting we will see anything of the sort by months end. Personally, I'm confident we will all see a significant, extended snowy outbreak this winter. Probably sooner rather than later....

[feb1991blizzard]

We're getting there, step by step!

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We're getting there, step by step!

Your not wrong, only 10 days away that's a great ensemble mean - and looking at it can only really get better ( for cold)

Edited November 7, 2016 by Ali1977

[bluearmy]

The mean upper ridge n Russia is beginning to gain so much traction in the 6/15 day timeframe.  I'm wondering just how influential it may become. if it gets far enough north allowing the jet to flow beneath in a way which draws the euro trough east then ......................

Edited November 7, 2016 by bluearmy

[Methuselah]

Well, as Net-Weather's longest-serving curmudgeon, even I can see that the coming winter will not be the same as the past three. Mild winds from the Urals would be something new for me too!

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The mean upper ridge n Russia is beginning to gain so much traction in the 6/15 day timeframe.  I'm wondering just how influential it may become. if it gets far enough north allowing the jet to flow beneath then ......................

What would/could this mean?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

What would/could this mean?

opens up the possibility of some really frigid air being available to tap into.

 

And firing even more waves up into the stratosphere.

Edited November 7, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Catacol]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

What would/could this mean?

Beast.........

[Spah1]

1 hour ago, vase1234 said:

He has also stressed it depends where the blocks setup.

Does that chart show cold and snow or just cold rain for lower ground.

It shows the anticipated/possible height rises to the North/NW that has been well advertised. It's a representation of everyone's hopes that this Winter will feel like Winter and that work will be closed for a day, where everyone can forget their worries and go for a walk in the falling snow with a crunch under foot and a hot chocolate waiting back at home. 

Edited November 7, 2016 by Spah1

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows Azores high (ridging) influencing the uk for a time around the end of this week / start of next week before significant lowering heights from the NW take over, the nw / se jet alignment suggests plenty of cold shots of Arctic origin beyond mid November. 

[bluearmy]

comparing GEFS and eps at day 15 re the upper trough in w Europe, we find the 552 dam through c France on GEFS whilst it makes it to N Spain on the eps. Not speaking about actual dam but where the contour sits given the likely low slp. I believe its pretty unusual to see this so far south in November. 

i know ian had commented that glosea 5 saw an upper trough over the UK mid November  - I wonder if it agrees re this marked upper trough in two weeks. It's pretty solid on the mean and has been for many runs now. 

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Beast.........

Oh, not all bad news then. Lets hope some good news from the EC weeklies tonight too!!

[tinybill]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Oh, not all bad news then. Lets hope some good news from the EC weeklies tonight too!!

looking  at  the  gfs   f1  dont  show  any  snow  yet  but  plenty  of  rain  coming

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1

 

Edited November 7, 2016 by tinybill

[Faronstream]

Westerlies are coming back to the mid November, after that looks a bit colder again. Overall i am very dissapointed with the latest updates from CFSV2

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Westerlies are coming back to the mid November, after that looks a bit colder again. Overall i am very dissapointed with the latest updates from CFSV2

They could show a beast tomorrow - chocolate fire guard springs to mind....Not saying they will be wrong but other models including suites we don't have access too say different. 

Edited November 7, 2016 by Ali1977

[Gael_Force]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

comparing GEFS and eps at day 15 re the upper trough in w Europe, we find the 552 dam through c France on GEFS whilst it makes it to N Spain on the eps. Not speaking about actual dam but where the contour sits given the likely low slp. I believe its pretty unusual to see this so far south in November. 

i know ian had commented that glosea 5 saw an upper trough over the UK mid November  - I wonder if it agrees re this marked upper trough in two weeks. It's pretty solid on the mean and has been for many runs now. 

I know you cannot show the weatherbell ensembles but maybe you can explain what's shown on the ECM 336 mean from this morning.

Is that 536 (500-1000) thickness over the UK?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

And look at this, I don't rate the CFS and I'm not changing that view to suit my argument as a 6 month model should have at least some sort of clue out to Month 2 but the CFS usually shows cold winter months around October and starts to cotton on to the right pattern around Early Nov, this time its been the other way around and has now switched around suddenly from mild to cold, that together with last JMA,ECM and GLOSEA 5 have all (to differing extents) shown blocking, Gav points out on his last seasonal model round up that the majority of models are showing a milder winter, but I will add to that that the 'reputable' Long range models are all showing blocked patterns.

Edited November 7, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Westerlies are coming back to the mid November, after that looks a bit colder again. Overall i am very dissapointed with the latest updates from CFSV2

Just seen this on latest CFSv2 daily run...need your sunglasses to view that anomaly 

[Ice Day]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

This is like the Good Old Days - anything post five-days is a mystery. And, given that the only predictable weather we ever get is mildish mush, we have a plethora of different outcomes to consider?

Will I see snow tomorrow? I doubt it very much. But - farther down the line - and as long as the PFJ continues to meander - well, who knows?

This, absolutely.  Considering we are now just 1 week into November, the potential on offer is mouth watering.  There's no doubt the output will wobble significantly as the models try to get a handle of the chaos occurring in the northern latitudes as autumn becomes winter.  As always with 'potential', we could end up the wrong side of troughs, ridges and blocks,  but I for one would take this all day long given last years pathetic effort for a winter.

I wouldn't mind a couple more quiet weeks as the building blocks move into place to ensure any cold isn't too watered down.  Not asking too much is it???

 

 

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I know you cannot show the weatherbell ensembles but maybe you can explain what's shown on the ECM 336 mean from this morning.

Is that 536 (500-1000) thickness over the UK?

 

Given that mean slp is approx 1000mb, you can take the thickness shown on that chart as being actual forecast thickness.  I think that's pretty low for the time of year. 

[gottolovethisweather]

56 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Just to stress the differences between this year and last year. The vortex is in a much weakened state and is forecast to stay that way. The fact that snow is forecast for anywhere other than the Scottish mountains this time of year is unusual to say the least yet some are disappointed that they won't see blizzards on the 7th of November!

Anyway, compare the vortex core on todays ECM and the same date last year-

Take that forward to the 17th-

Last year-

There was a feeble attempt mid month to break the vortex but it didn't happen. We ended up with this-

As you can see, last year, the vortex core stayed pretty much intact throughout November.

None of the models, including the best long range seasonal models, are suggesting we will see anything of the sort by months end. Personally, I'm confident we will all see a significant, extended snowy outbreak this winter. Probably sooner rather than later....

4

 

Indeed. Absolutely bang on.

The UKMO are suggesting a colder than normal start to winter I believe and as you say, with snow falling as we slip only into week two of November, I think things are most favourable for a colder period upcoming along with the odd milder day or two thrown in, especially darn south.

My gut had an irregular feeling about this November as early as way back on the 24th October. Note my words "I think November will bring some quite widespread cold and wintry Synoptics to all", best wait and see before agreeing with all that of course. It's going to a special few weeks prior to Christmas for sure and I feel some will get a lot of snow.

 

 

Edited November 7, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Froze were the Days]

Yep latest CFS 0z run is so crazy it needs to be sectioned, funny thing is it's fairly similar to the latest GFS run 340z!  Into December through to February it's all blocking, if that happened anotther 62/63 on the cards. All for a bit of fun though the 0z run through October and to this stage has been fairly good.

Edited November 7, 2016 by Froze were the Days

[fergieweather]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

They could show a beast tomorrow - chocolate fire guard springs to mind....Not saying they will be wrong but other models including suites we don't have access too say different. 

Yes, by late in the month/into next.... but the mid-November period has retained lately a broad signal for NW'ly flow (including in GloSea) albeit this can mask anything ranging from a fair element of westerly mobility to something more northerly. EC12z EPS highlight well the varied spread into that period (and indeed on to the end of it's current run), albeit with 15d ensembles *broadly* favouring temperatures close to average from later this week onwards (with some inevitable oscillation). Whether this signal is wholly trustworthy is another matter, given marked spread and various colder options therein.