SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

[karlos1983]

19 minutes ago, Gibby said:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

I get slated a lot over on MOD for my use of this chart but I find it very useful when followed daily. On tonight's offering I think a lot can be read from that chart that is different than it's shown for days. Those that follow this chart a slow trend has been picked up over the last few days which has led to tonight's offering. For weeks it has shown High pressure over or to the South or West of the UK. In recent days it has shown High pressure slipping further SW and a strengthening gradient to the West or NW flow indicating a lot of members support such an evolution. More importantly the Jet Stream has repeatedly been positioned further and further South in relation to the UK to the extent that tonight it lies with a mean position South of the UK meaning a better but not guaranteed chance of colder conditions lying on the cold side of the Jet as we do at Day 10. I have told my followers on Facebook tonight that I am becoming increasingly confident of a stronger and more unstable WNW flow across us with rain and showers possibly turning wintry at times later next week as a result. I mention nothing more than that at the moment to see how the models develop this clear trend in the next few days.

I'd say that's a reasonable assessment Gibby. 

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by karlos1983

[jethro]

Not as cold here tonight, it did dip below freezing earlier for a while, warmed up a bit and is now heading back down again, currently 0.4c. Might be crispy in the morning, might not.

[Nights King]

56 minutes ago, Gibby said:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

I get slated a lot over on MOD for my use of this chart but I find it very useful when followed daily. On tonight's offering I think a lot can be read from that chart that is different than it's shown for days. Those that follow this chart a slow trend has been picked up over the last few days which has led to tonight's offering. For weeks it has shown High pressure over or to the South or West of the UK. In recent days it has shown High pressure slipping further SW and a strengthening gradient to the West or NW flow indicating a lot of members support such an evolution. More importantly the Jet Stream has repeatedly been positioned further and further South in relation to the UK to the extent that tonight it lies with a mean position South of the UK meaning a better but not guaranteed chance of colder conditions lying on the cold side of the Jet as we do at Day 10. I have told my followers on Facebook tonight that I am becoming increasingly confident of a stronger and more unstable WNW flow across us with rain and showers possibly turning wintry at times later next week as a result. I mention nothing more than that at the moment to see how the models develop this clear trend in the next few days.

I'd take that forecast with the wintry risk... marginal at elevation is a hill billy's friend    If was in the country after the 14th.. 

Not even really seen much marginal opportunity for last half a decade.. 

[khodds]

Lying in bed and it sounds like it's raining outside.. can't be bothered to get up.. nothing on the radar.. it may even be snow.. anyone else confirm? Or was I dreaming it?! 

[Dorsetbred]

Mornin all, currently 3.1°C, the cloud overnight has kept the temperatures up, so no frost this morning, now clear skies so it might drop down before dawn..

[knocker]

Yes indeed Dorset a bit different to yesterday. Also cloudy here with a temp of 6C and a NW breeze.

[jethro]

Morning all, not crispy this morning, currently 2.6c which feels amazingly mild compared to yesterday. With my newly found source of info I can now say we did have a frost here, temps were hovering around/just below freezing through most of the night until warming up about 6am.

[fromey]

morning all.

a bit balmy out there this morning 5.3c

fromey 

[Rich_Clements]

It's funny how quickly you get used to cold temps feeling really mild this morning although it's not that mild really.

[MP-R]

The milder temperature today being slightly negated by the breeze. Back to frost for tomorrow and Friday though before what looks like a balmy weekend in comparison.

[Mapantz]

The wind got up out of the blue last night - registered a 27mph gust. A low of 1.8°C this morning, mostly cloudy today, and feeling cold because of it.

Temp: 7.7°C - Hum: 86% - Dew: 5.4°C - Bar: 1026.85hPa - Wind: W @ 5mph.

The MetO are going for -3°C here by the morning, quite possible I may get close to my -4.7°C record in December.

GFS and NetWx SR respectively:

  

[khodds]

Yep - skies are clearing here in readiness for a frosty night  

[karlos1983]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

The wind got up out of the blue last night - registered a 27mph gust. A low of 1.8°C this morning, mostly cloudy today, and feeling cold because of it.

Temp: 7.7°C - Hum: 86% - Dew: 5.4°C - Bar: 1026.85hPa - Wind: W @ 5mph.

The MetO are going for -3°C here by the morning, quite possible I may get close to my -4.7°C record in December.

GFS and NetWx SR respectively:

  

Yeah I thought someone was jumping my gate, wind came from nowhere and left as quick. Very odd.

[knocker]

Predictable the Sc layer stayed all day under the very large 8C inversion at 900mb. Temps very static, 7.1C at 03Z this morning and 7.2C now.

[Mapantz]

Only one month to fill, to complete my heatmap for one year - its gone so fast!

[Dorsetbred]

Still a fair amount of cloud over Bournemouth, holding temps up.

[Rich_Clements]

Just been outside, cloud cover is starting to break up although it's not that cold

[knocker]

Dear oh dear , this has been posted to nostalgic Camborne

[matt111]

Been a decent day here. Was cloudier earlier on then cleared around lunchtime before clouding over again for a while later in the afternoon. Temperature reached 9.8°C, currently 6.1°C. 

[Snow shut work]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

Predictable the Sc layer stayed all day under the very large 8C inversion at 900mb. Temps very static, 7.1C at 03Z this morning and 7.2C now.

This is really only my opinion, but Cornwall's micro climate and temp difference even compared to me in Gloucester (although way north I consider myself south west) would do my nut in.

.....just always seems so warm/mild. Evil; in a nice way.

[karlos1983]

22 minutes ago, Snow shut work said:

This is really only my opinion, but Cornwall's micro climate and temp difference even compared to me in Gloucester (although way north I consider myself south west) would do my nut in.

.....just always seems so warm/mild. Evil; in a nice way.

It is quite remarkable how different the weather is in Cornwall! Especially in winter when it comes to temperatures 

[Snow shut work]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

It is quite remarkable how different the weather is in Cornwall! Especially in winter when it comes to temperatures 

If I want minimum constant >5c I'll drive 3 hours south to get that fix.

The irony is that fix is more likely than any snow fix. 

 

[MrNooo]

Almost Springlike today, mid afternoon, very pleasant to be out! Sky all cleared and temp falling away nicely just hit -0.1C. Be interested to see if we beat the -8C we had last month.

[Mapantz]

Temperature is struggling to fall here - completely cloudy.

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Temperature is struggling to fall here - completely cloudy.

Yep same here. Still 4.9°C and falling very slowly.