Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[northwestsnow]

Let's call a spade a spade, it's looking poor for coldies.Im seeing nothing in the NWP to suggest high lat blocking to force the jet South.In my opinion it's going to get quite stormy as we move closer to Christmas,  if anything the (absolutely useless) block to the east could actually cause flooding potential as the lows coming in slow down against the euro high.

Hopefully the jet will be far enough north to deflect systems away..

Edited December 13, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I'm hoping today is the nadir and that things get better from a NWP perspective going forward.  Time will tell as ever...

I don't think this is the nadir

[feb1991blizzard]

And the EPS have gone very mild now as well.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the EPS have gone very mild now as well.

No surprise there,we are going to need something to rattle that polar vortex or im fearing a very wet zonal spell over Christmas, oh joy.

[A.J]

1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

Oh the models I've seen are frightful
But the background signal's delightful
There's always ten days to go
Till it snows, till snows till it snows

 

51 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

When they finally see the light

The 850s are too warm

But there's still ten days to go

Till it snows till it snows till it snows

 

Altogether now!.....

 

Sorry mods!  

 

34 minutes ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

but when all hope we think has gone

tomorrows pub run goes off on one

and there is still ten days to go

till it snows till it snows till it snows

 

couldnt resist  forgive me

keeping in the spirit of things......

 

"on the fifth day of christmas, the mod thread sent to me...

 5 moans and raaaaaaaaaaaaaamps

 4 off topic posts

 3 one liners

 2 days ban 

and a warning point from yours trulyyyyyyyyy    "

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

No surprise there,we are going to need something to rattle that polar vortex or im fearing a very wet zonal spell over Christmas, oh joy.

For me xmas was gone a good while ago, I'm looking more towards Jan 5th-10th onwards wrt strat playing ball.

[booferking]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Let's call a spade a spade, it's looking poor for coldies.Im seeing nothing in the NWP to suggest high lat blocking to force the jet South.In my opinion it's going to get quite stormy as we move closer to Christmas,  if anything the (absolutely useless) block to the east could actually cause flooding potential as the lows coming in slow down against the euro high.

Hopefully the jet will be far enough north to deflect systems away..

That is spot on right there been saying this for ages that high is useless to the east, south east the quicker people learn that the better we need rid of this pattern asap hopefully to reset and unlock a better pattern were we can maybe get HLB.

[feb1991blizzard]

26 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Maybe in the medium term but not really in the longer term

 

There are some very nice ones but much more variability though with a big swathe of yellows at or slightly higher than our latitudes.

Problem is it keeps staying at the +300 mark so nothing definite or you could say is trend. However it does show what is possible and if the majority showed raging zonality then we could be sure that would happen so this preferable.

 

 

The mean 384 chart is pretty zonal, yes I know its a mean so you are not going to see a mean easterly at that range, but the ridge still needs to be further west and North to even start to get excited.

[karlos1983]

I'm sorry, but one should not call one a pro that is not a pro. I can play football,to a pretty high standard and I understand the game more than most, but a professional I am not....people work extremely hard for that label. Knowledgeable or very knowledgeable enthusiast perhaps. Respect on the other hand must be mutual, or it doesn't work, regardless of opinion!

To my very unprofessional eyes, it looks like we are going to need to wait at least 10 days before we might get a sniff of any decent cold opportunities, GFS ensembles still giving us some hope in fl, ECM ensembles not looking so good 

Edited December 14, 2016 by karlos1983

[booferking]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm sorry, but one should not call one a pro that is not a pro. I can play football,to a pretty high standard and I understand the game more than most, but a professional I am not....people work extremely hard for that label. Knowledgeable or very knowledgeable enthusiast perhaps 

To my very unprofessional eyes, it looks like we are going to need to wait at least 10 days before we might get a sniff of any decent cold opportunities, GFS ensembles still giving us some hope in fl, ECM ensembles not looking so good 

Is the top part of the post meant for me as pro is a slang word for somebody who is very good  in the modern day social english phrase if you think im having a dig at any professional in the industry your well off the mark?

 

[bobbydog]

One of the dullest weather patterns I've seen in a long time

On the plus side, I've never seen.a weather pattern last for 3 months....

[Timmytour]

29 minutes ago, booferking said:

That is spot on right there been saying this for ages that high is useless to the east, south east the quicker people learn that the better we need rid of this pattern asap hopefully to reset and unlock a better pattern were we can maybe get HLB.

Just having a quick look through the archives and can't really see any winter with such a high that registered a dramatic turnaround,suggesting it's a hard pattern to get out from. I'm wondering if we are stuck in a pattern of early 70s winters? Is it still the case that there are very rare things happening in the atmosphere that meteorologists couldn't recall having seen before....such as seemed to be the case a few weeks ago? If that is the case it would not be impossible for the sudden flip to take place and swamp Europe and then us with some decent cold

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Is the top part of the post meant for me as pro is a slang word for somebody who is very good  in the modern day social english phrase if you think im having a dig at any professional in the industry your well off the mark?

 

Nope don't think your having a dig at any pro booferking, not at all. That's all I have to say about that. 

Edited December 14, 2016 by karlos1983

[bobbydog]

Mind you....

[cheshire snow]

Oh Hello what is the GFS Up to in FI -5 Isotherm down to south coast and snow showers for Scotland,NI,NW England

C.S

[cheshire snow]

LOL GFS finishes with a countrywide snow event,its so far away I not going to post a chart.

C.S

[IDO]

56 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

LOL GFS finishes with a countrywide snow event,its so far away I not going to post a chart.

C.S

The op is a massive outlier compared to its mean: 

The GEFS mean is sinking the heights a bit more than they were a few days ago, but the overall pattern is similar, just the UK becoming more unsettled as the jet fires closer to the UK.

Looking at the GEFS very little sign of cold and the London ensemble 2m temps promoting average at worse temps:  

 

No change to my thoughts that December is over for any real cold or snow.

Edited December 14, 2016 by IDO
I

[knocker]

Today

A mainly fine day in England and Wales with quite a bit of sunshine, the exception being the far south west of both. Ireland with some patchy rain, perhaps clearing later. Scotland cloudy and wet a quite breezy in the north west. Temps again od the mild side. The next front due to arrive in the west before faltering.

There are indications of some changes upstream vis the upper pattern this morning which have some knock on effect downstream and which result in the high pressure to the east perhaps being not quite so influential. The upstream changes involve losing the GOA ridge, the trough down the spine  N. America and the configuration of the vortex. Thus a much flatter flow across the States.

Back to the det. run and Friday still the Atlantic trough deconstructing against the block initiating a cut off upper low in the western Mediterranean and another surge NE of the Azores high pressure. The latter successfully thwarts the first attack from the complex upper trough but it has spread itself a bit thin and the next attack at T144 is more successful

From here the trough is in charge until T240 and it generates quite a nasty looking  low in the process

So in a nutshell the weather for the UK Dry with high pressure in charge, apart from NW Scotland, until around the middle of next week when the trough takes over and the Atlantic swans in.and brings with some very wet and windy weather especially in the north.

Edited December 14, 2016 by knocker

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

LOL GFS finishes with a countrywide snow event,its so far away I not going to post a chart.

C.S

I will for fun! Although we both know any kind of meaningful analysis compared to the ensembles that far out is foolish. Just one outcome of many.

 

[mb018538]

GFS is absolutely dire this morning. Increasingly looking like the rest of this month is consigned to the dustbin.



A message from the vortex : 'You can run, but you can't hide!'

[knocker]

A quick glance at the 200mb level charts this morning would certainly indicate a movement towards a trough over NW Eutope

[KTtom]

Some   impressive examples of warm air being pumped north into the Arctic on both the gfs and ECM day 5 charts, high pressure also emerging from the Arctic to the north east forcing some frigid -30 uppers south towards Russia...be interesting to see how this develops over future runs..

 

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by KTtom

[Ali1977]

That's one serious cold finger of air heading into Europe on the ECM, not helping us though unfortunately !!

[January Snowstorm]

As I mentioned last night models are firming up on a very unsettled run in to Christmas, particularly out West.

The Euro high is evaporating over time which is the good news this morning. Also bitter cold building out East. Anything could happen Christmas day so the jury is out for now

[SMU]

Interesting mr spock...

DEEP cold into northern Europe.

Proper cold...