Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[cheshire snow]

14 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Hopefully, my post above and my one on the previous page helps you and any newbies.

My post above requoted as follows.

 

"Surface cold (think inversions) but not deep cold hence some folk aren't so happy with the outputs. IMBY there should be a good deal of dry weather, hopefully, with the sunshine in abundance if our cards fall right."

IT DOES HELP IF MEMBERS WOULD POST CHART RELATED CONTENT RATHER THAN ENTERING INTO ONE LINERS ON HERE AS THE PAGE COUNT INCREASES FAR TOO FAST! 

Ha Ha your last two sentences remind of the good old days here in net weather

When one run would take 30 pagesI wonder if those days will be back this winter

If nothing else it used to be a good read in between runs,

C.S.

[blizzard81]

A very positive trend with the 12z ops has been to bolster the cold eastern block. The gfs 12z run was an improvement in this regard to it's 06z predecessor as is the ecm 12z compared to it's 00z run. The jma 12z is the best run of the night and is similar to the ecm with it's low heights over the med

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

For newbies who might be confused with some of tonights comments. Just think of it this way, PV dark purples to the north trying to sink the high, that low pressure you can see in the Med is doing its best to stop that from happening.

In these situations something has to give, eventually one wins out, you either get the PV winning out or you'll see it slowly weaken or at least edge west , in that case you'll see some trough disruption with some energy heading se and in effect giving that low pressure a top up. At this point the high after being battered and bruised picks itself up and starts to ridge north again.

For this reason whenever you see a chart in winter which has low pressure in the northern Med then this is a big help, its very difficult for milder conditions to get in with that there and it can often deliver cold to the UK.

For those that have followed the thread over recent days you'll see I've been less than enthused by the outputs however because of that low pressure in the Med I'm willing to wait and see where we go from here. The PV may win out but theres a chance it won't.

Have a look at the jma run Nick. Low heights over the med, even more so than ecm.

[Man With Beard]

I have to wonder what's happened to the ECM since its update last month. We used to be guaranteed at least a couple Greenland Highs a month, even when the LRFs were zonal. Now the LRFs are blocked but the ECM op is like an Atlantic steamroller!!

Is it possible that they dealt with its northern blocking bias ... a little TOO well??

[Blizzard 63]

I'm more optimistic tonight with the output the high seems to be stronger to the east I think more surprises on the way

[nick sussex]

16 minutes ago, doghouse said:

Three posts up by the seasoned and erudite Saint  Nick of Lourdes

Lmao!  I've been to the church at Lourdes loads of times with friends and family, its a beautiful setting  with the Gave De Pau running through that. However even after all those visits I can't say I've had an epiphany!

[A.J]

The odd personal remark or two have been removed...........but to clarify, one-liners are not encouraged in the thread, they don;t move the discussion on, rather they cause derailment and confusion, leading to posts from mods/hosts asking for no personal remarks or one-liners..........a bit like this one 

[nick sussex]

24 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Ha ha Nick, been scolded for already polishing it off. To quantify....for Dec.  Very underwhelming as we see other places enter record books re cold and snow 

BFTP

I can understand your frustration. But to be honest its a UK winter, whats new! If the cold can avoid the UK it does. At least with low heights in the Med theres some hope if the PV relents.

Edited December 13, 2016 by nick sussex

[mcweather]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I can understand your frustration. But to be honest its a UK winter, whats new! If the cold can avoid the UK it does. At least with low heights in the Med theres some hope if the PV relents.

Quite so Nick one only has to look back at the archive charts for numerous cold spells  to see how the weather regime has done a complete turn around to cold from some very unpromising looking set ups

Edited December 13, 2016 by mcweather

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

The odd personal remark or two have been removed...........but to clarify, one-liners are not encouraged in the thread, they don;t move the discussion on, rather they cause derailment and confusion, leading to posts from mods/hosts asking for no personal remarks or one-liners..........a bit like this one 

Just one more, the personal remark not an issue for me and no complaints made but you have your rules. The one liners are generally when on a bus to or from Croydon on the iPhone which is useless for lengthy posting and uploading model run stills.  Still think the ECM run wasn't a good run.  No doubt this will be removed but just needed to put it out there......

Ingham85.....my career is somewhat different 

BFTP

[weatherguy]

Ugh.  Same feeling here for the last month or so of model watching; tangible promise always held at an arm's length away which can get tedious, yet not so much a write off as last year's zonal slogfest which removed the carrot entirely!  A better position to be in at face value I suppose.

Anywho, 12z ECM does show some promise where looking at the Canadian lobe of the PV.  +24/144/240 below.

At +24 the broadscale pattern looks very good, but alas a few hundred miles away from delivering true cold to our shores.  Without retrogression of the HP to the NW, and with those nasty deep purples over Canada, things would be looking pretty grim.  What's good though is that, while the ridging on the Pacific side of things does subside, energy is allowed to move out of Canada while the close proximity of the Euro High spares us a zonal train.  Note by +240, low heights are kept in play over the med, the Canadian lobe is looking a bit less "woken up at 4am by a prank caller" angry, and there is still some degree of HLB dotted around the NH, keeping the spokes of the PV-wheel clanging along out of rhythm. 

So in summary; by +240h, the NH profile is somewhat worse than present, but being unable to capitalise on this current scenario, the progression is a good one.  No true cold imminent, but neither a zonal mush - cool and reasonably dry looks the form horse, with hopefully some more interesting stuff on offer beyond the D10 period.

Hope this analysis has helped some

 

[Chris.R]

Right so the weather is going to be dry but wet, mild but cold and windy but yet calm. That's basically what the last few hours of posts have come across like to me lol. 

[A.J]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Just one more, the personal remark not an issue for me and no complaints made but you have your rules. The one liners are generally when on a bus to or from Croydon on the iPhone which is useless for lengthy posting and uploading model run stills.  Still think the ECM run wasn't a good run.  No doubt this will be removed but just needed to put it out there......

Ingham85.....my career is somewhat different 

BFTP

It's cool Fred..................................although to be fair, a post saying "the Ecm is bad/pants/poor" is better suited to the ramps/moans thread unless there's a bit more meat on it

[Blizzard 63]

This winter's had more frosts then last winter only 13 days of winter very optimistic we will see a surprise in the lead up to Christmas and new year like gav said today don't blame amarica this time for this current mild snap

 

 

[Spikey M]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Right so the weather is going to be dry but wet, mild but cold and windy but yet calm. That's basically what the last few hours of posts have come across like to me lol. 

Cloudy with a chance of meatballs.

[Stuie]

Taming of the fiery JS around the 21st. I would have thought that would certainly rule out any potential zonal rubbish.

[doghouse]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

40 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lmao!  I've been to the church at Lourdes loads of times with friends and family, its a beautiful setting  with the Gave De Pau running through that. However even after all those visits I can't say I've had an epiphany!

Good news that ye seem to be optimistic for the Genoa Low, giving us a shot at a cold pattern...... I was in Lourdes many years ago.....my soul wasn't saved but the coffee was great:-)) 

[nick sussex]

The ECM op run for De Bilt on the short ensembles was one of the warmest solutions from day 6 to 9 and then one of the coldest on day 10. Looking at that it seems more keep the high further north:

The increase in precip spikes towards day ten suggests the Atlantic trying to move in. The issue at the moment is the angle of that in terms of whether it will come with some trough disruption.

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM op run for De Bilt on the short ensembles was one of the warmest solutions from day 6 to 9 and then one of the coldest on day 10. Looking at that it seems more keep the high further north:

The increase in precip spikes towards day ten suggests the Atlantic trying to move in. The issue at the moment is the angle of that in terms of whether it will come with some trough disruption.

 

The control run seems to show the block further north and thus remaining cold and dry throughout with no atlantic breakthrough.

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, doghouse said:

 

I think we're reaching a critical juncture for Christmas. Much depends on where that Atlantic energy goes when it really tries to bash the block out of the way. Low heights in the Med do help but we don't know whether they'll hold on. I wouldn't like to call it!

[SMU]

Evening All- 

So x2 days off since the last post, however I may as well copy & paste what I wrote then on the last update- 

No change expected till post Christmas now im afraid

So with that in mind all the reference points are all the same - perhaps slightly enhanced ie...

Vortex- becoming even stronger - zonal wind heading up to a mean of about 50-52M/S

- the important context here is at the same time of 2015 the zonal wind speed was only 2-3 M/S faster so essentially in around 5-6 days time we are in the same mire as last winter...

* the only difference is that the core of the vortex is displaced just slightly NW ( relative to the UK ) V where it was last year-

* Southern Scandi heights get the boost across from the UK at the weekend with core central thickness increasing from 560 DAM to ~ 574 - which makes it a very stable feature

* The reverse flow over Iberia all the way back to Eastern Europe *MAY* get some re-inforcement late next week highlighted by the JMA-

so essentially the status quo of the 2 main players with the low heights over Iberia > Italy a sub plot in the main story line-

In terms of of the Uk the finer detail of the mid term & onto Xmas still remains illusive however with the anomalies mooching about in the same places -its all got a bit of +1 about it, a bit like watching a programme then watching it again..

I would say the 'potential' shown towards xmas in the shape of possible change in the atlantic has taken a step back in the last 24-48 in favour of more of the same ( no atlantic retrogression or amplification ) however it could re-emerge with just 12 days to the big day-

Will it be seasonal- well I think we might just scrape 'normality' in the form of faux cold from the SE but being such a fine line im inclined to think it might be faux 'faux' cold- ie not quite as cold as it could have been-

 

lastly- not mych silver lining - especially in the form of the context around Jan as at first glance it appears to be much the same- however zonal wind peak looks to be projected @ day 10 with moderation post that- & CFS continues to project a SSW in the new year - ( early Jan ) - with the usual 10 day propergation windows...

Not particularly great tonight but thats how it is....

S

[mb018538]

Thanks for the post steve - it echoes pretty much what I'm feeling....I think a few people are seeing an oasis in the desert. I totally got the optimism earlier in the autumn as things certainly looked good, even if they didn't deliver. At the moment? I'm just seeing a slow decline back towards the status quo.

[knocker]

No definitive answer from the anomalies this evening although they appear to moving towards the Atlantic edging a little closer with NOAA being the most reluctant.

Still the complex vortex over N. Canada spreading west over Alaska and most importantly with the Atlantic trough which is doing a fair amount of dictating downstream The EPS handles the trough more progressively than the other two giving it a slight negative tilt and extending it down as far as the western Mediterranean. Simultaneously the High pressure slips a little further east and although still quite amplified this backs the upper flow SW which will incline more unsettled weather into the UK although still a close run thing with the surface HP not that far away but going further as the time extends. Although the other two are not so progressive with the trough and indication are that most of the UK will still be under the influence of the HP the GEFS also tends to move it east as the time moves on. So the temp weather outlook is still dependent on whichever analysis is closer to the mark.

Given all this there aint going to be agreement later The GEFS and NOAA going for a quite weak Atlantic trough and a pretty slack westerly flow over the southern half of the UK suggests the HP still might be influential at least over the south east. The EPS continues to be more bullish with the trough, a flatter westerly flow, and no influence from the HP which is nudged south east.

Edited December 13, 2016 by knocker

[Scandinavian High.]

Can't see no Atlantic break through bye looking at this cold and frosty in south milder future north Christmas week.