Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Seasonality]

Well ECM. This is different. Look at the uppers into Europe at 192 and compare to GFS. Would happily take this!

Edited December 14, 2016 by Seasonality

[bluearmy]

Can't be often that the Ukraine is the home of the vortex  - a real chunk of vortex, not a old bit having floated about and been modified up to 12c!

anyway, perfect timing from the jet streak as many of the models seem content to open up Europe to that cold but alas, it won't get much further than the Black Sea ! (Unless the strength of the jet is mis modelled) 

that ecm post day 8 is open to quite a few questions anyway. IMO, there is a window of opportunity opening up for a post Xmas easterly. not that this is news but that cold Russian ridge seems happy to bide its time. 

Edited December 14, 2016 by bluearmy

[Iceberg]

Ecm for Christmas Eve has snow showers for everyone. 

Far far to early to call Christmas. 

 

[mb018538]

People of Scotland, look away now!



Vicious 940mb low giving the Shetlanders and far north a pasting. Wet and windy in the lead up to Xmas for all on the ECM.

[Iceberg]

They would be digger the snow out of Scotland on that one vicious gales and snow. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

People of Scotland, look away now!



Vicious 940mb low giving the Shetlanders and far north a pasting. Wet and windy in the lead up to Xmas for all on the ECM.

Blizzards for Scotland as well looking at that chart.....

[Seasonality]

Xmas snow back on for the uk.

[frosty ground]

Well the ECM isn't dull a pretty wintry outlook at face value from days 7 onwards. The GFS ensembles are pretty scattered as well with up to 20% snow chance around Xmas.

 

[Gowon]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can't be often that the Ukraine is the home of the vortex  - a real chunk of vortex, not a old bit having floated about and been modified up to 12c!

anyway, perfect timing from the jet streak as many of the models seem content to open up Europe to that cold but alas, it won't get much further than the Black Sea ! (Unless the strength of the jet is mis modelled) 

that ecm post day 8 is open to quite a few questions anyway. IMO, there is a window of opportunity opening up for a post Xmas easterly. not that this is news but that cold Russian ridge seems happy to bide its time. 

Yeah it amplifies to our North.. Hopefully the Atlantic ridge can link up to the Russian one..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Wow, more like it!  ECM hinted the other day and I said that the way forward-ish would likely be the ECM and not GFS.  The slug is getting squished....long live the slug.  The Euro HP really has / is dominating and Pete Tonged outlooks for this part of Dec, but this is not a singular run where where deep trough gets over us to bring pM air to flood the UK around Xmas time.   It is for me the next 'watch' period and the 00z are bringing some interest.  I hope it builds momentum so that we have a chance of wintry weather 

Turnedoutniceagain......you forgot WALL OF SNOW!!! Lol

 

BFTP

Edited December 14, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[jvenge]

47 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Xmas snow back on for the uk.

Ick, that would bring me -20 on the 23rd if it were to verify.

 

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Ick, that would bring me -20 on the 23rd if it were to verify.

 

Yep, -25 uppers for Chisinau?

[jvenge]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Yep, -25 uppers for Chisinau?

Around that. Between -20 to -22 at 2m. A short lived affair by the looks of it though, luckily. At that temperature the elderly and animals will start dying.

None of the GEFS buying it though and you would have thought at just T216 a few would be showing it. 

[Snow Grain]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Well ECM. This is different. Look at the uppers into Europe at 192 and compare to GFS. Would happily take this!

Why?

[chris55]

ECM finally rocks the boat and try's to break us out of the Euro slug type pattern.

That cold pool coming down to the east is phenomenal, coupled with the huge trough cutting through into Europe and we could potentially see a way better pattern evolve as we go forward.

only one run though so let's hope we see this type of pattern repeat in the models.

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by chris55

[Snow Grain]

58 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Xmas snow back on for the uk.

That would bring wet and windy weather, with some snow at elevation.

[winterof79]

39 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Wow, more like it!  ECM hinted the other day and I said that the way forward-ish would likely be the ECM and not GFS.  The slug is getting squished....long live the slug.  The Euro HP really has / is dominating and Pete Tonged outlooks for this part of Dec, but this is not a singular run where where deep trough gets over us to bring pM air to flood the UK around Xmas time.   It is for me the next 'watch' period and the 00z are bringing some interest.  I hope it builds momentum so that we have a chance of wintry weather 

Turnedoutniceagain......you forgot WALL OF SNOW!!! Lol

 

BFTP

So December MAY not be written off as previously thought by many.The vagaries off following every run X times a day

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by winterof79

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Around that. Between -20 to -22 at 2m. A short lived affair by the looks of it though, luckily. At that temperature the elderly and animals will start dying.

None of the GEFS buying it though and you would have thought at just T216 a few would be showing it. 

Yr.no showing -24 for Warsaw. Not good for the vulnerable you're right, just bitter painful vold. Doubtful whether it will verify, I don't think I need to see pack ice on the River Vistula to feel Christmassy.

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Snow Grain said:

That would bring wet and windy weather, with some snow at elevation.

Yes,quite a bit of snow too anywhere from Peak District north.

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Yr.no showing -24 for Warsaw. Not good for the vulnerable you're right, just bitter painful vold. Doubtful whether it will verify, I don't think I need to see pack ice on the River Vistula to feel Christmassy.

I'll send you a PM, but it looks like Warsaw will get some light snow out of it as well.

[Iceberg]

It's at t240 and won't come off but folks need to understand the differences in air types. Dam figures are between 515-520 on the t240 chart for 90% of the uk. Easily cold enough for snow. Also you need to couple that with the more unstable air and the higher cloud base of the showers. 

An easterly has a very different airmass far more shallow and far more affected by 850,s and surface temps. 

If anybody wants to give an metreologocial reason why the f240 chart wouldn't be mainly snow showers then fine but the figures don't back that up. 

[Seasonality]

6 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

It's at t240 and won't come off but folks need to understand the differences in air types. Dam figures are between 515-520 on the t240 chart for 90% of the uk. Easily cold enough for snow. Also you need to couple that with the more unstable air and the higher cloud base of the showers. 

An easterly has a very different airmass far more shallow and far more affected by 850,s and surface temps. 

If anybody wants to give an metreologocial reason why the f240 chart wouldn't be mainly snow showers then fine but the figures don't back that up. 

Well said, a good 240h chart and a wintry one at that, as I stated previously.

[tight isobar]

The interesting feature on the 240 ecm is both the Russian high and drop iof large 'once' Canadian vortex.

Its slams the block to the east infiltrating a Russian waa scenario. Correct alignment would begin to 'possibly show heights build to the NW further on' creating a decently placed trough over ourselves allowing perhaps a blocky situation and attacks of deep polar air inflow. ..one possibility atm..However with the wild swings of late' evolution of blocking to the north north east are still on the table...though weakening with signal with time.

Certainly interesting! 

Edited December 14, 2016 by tight isobar

[jvenge]

12 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Well said, a good 240h chart and a wintry one at that, as I stated previously.

Hmm, not sure. Scotland and the north west of England will get some snow from it, but the surface temperatures for anything other than parts of Scotland mean the chances of it accumulating are slim. That's based on 2m min temperatures and snowfall totals from the ECM from behind a pay wall, so I can't post it, sorry.

 

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by jvenge

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Hmm, not sure. Scotland and the north west of England will get some snow from it, but the surface temperatures for anything other than parts of Scotland mean the chances of it accumulating are slim. That's based on 2m min temperatures and snowfall totals from the ECM from behind a pay wall, so I can't post it, sorry.

 

Ok, I'm not suggesting any widespread accumulation. But many will see falling wintry precipitation and for the UK that will be welcome indeed after the last few winters. .

Edited December 14, 2016 by Seasonality