Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Summer Sun]

This mornings ECM ens is fairly close to last nights

00z                                                                12z

D10 ens

 

[MR EXTREMES]

This was a topic I pointed out the other day that's a northwest and west flow can often produce wintry weather although in the south not as good although from chart today certainly even in the south a wintry mix.

now can we get a little nudge south or southeast of the low in the Atlantic certainly not done deal by Friday we should have more confidence.

But the winter storm and them colder uppers don't really have a huge amount of support from the other models.

But quietly confident that beyond the unsettled spell or stalemate that we could see end of December into Jan possibly better cold set up.

it's amazing how close we have come to something colder just hasn't set up perfectly just yet.

Certainly feel more optimistic this season compared to the last 3 winters.

[Frosty.]

Nice to see some wintry action during the festive season, hope the Gfs 00z is right 

Hope we see snow soon!

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Ok, I'm not suggesting any widespread accumulation. But many will see falling wintry precipitation and for the UK that will be welcome indeed after the last few winters. Ps, might want to remove the chart you accidentally posted.

It's the forum software :-) Even if you remove it from the post, it still shows up in the final post, until you then edit ;-) You were just quick with the refresh!

But also, no. The ECM doesn't show snow for anywhere other than the north west and Scotland. That's from its Snow Fall total output. The rest of the UK would have a little rain. It will feel "seasonal" though.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

It's the forum software :-) Even if you remove it from the post, it still shows up in the final post, until you then edit ;-) You were just quick with the refresh!

But also, no. The ECM doesn't show snow for anywhere other than the north west and Scotland. That's from its Snow Fall total output. The rest of the UK would have a little rain. It will feel "seasonal" though.

 

Id be very suprised if that didn't produce some of the coldest wintry weather so far this winter.

Edited December 14, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

It's the forum software :-) Even if you remove it from the post, it still shows up in the final post, until you then edit ;-) You were just quick with the refresh!

But also, no. The ECM doesn't show snow for anywhere other than the north west and Scotland. That's from its Snow Fall total output. The rest of the UK would have a little rain. It will feel "seasonal" though.

 

Understood, thanks.

[knocker]

The EPS ens certainly going for more unsettled weather, particularly in the north, with temps dipping below average in that region. Also of course the possibility of severe gales but why that seems to be welcomed in some quarters is beyond me.

EDIT

A quick look at the EPS ext means have the trough remaining influential thus remaining unsettled, particularly in the north as the ridge declines  A south westerly upper flow with temps around average maybe a little above.

Edited December 14, 2016 by knocker

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

didn't produce some of the coldest wintry weather so far this winter.

Not sure what you are trying to say. 

I'm not saying it is a bad chart, as it would deliver below average temperatures and some people would see snow, but it isn't a UK wide snow event. The encouragement to take from it is that with only a small upgrade it could deliver something more of interest to most here. Alas, a small downgrade would deliver cold rain to all as well though :-)

[sundog]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

The EPS ens certainly going for more unsettled weather, particularly in the north, with temps dipping below average in that region. Also of course the possibility of severe gales but why that seems to be welcomed in some quarters is beyond me.

Well it at least would shake the cobwebs off after this turgid bland uninteresting rubbish we have been enduring. This current weather just drains ones interest in the weather imo.

[johnholmes]

No large changes showing on the anomaly charts but enough to shift the emphasis perhaps. From a coldish settled holiday period to one with a less settled look. The ECMWF anomaly certainly shows this but the others less so as yet.

links

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[northwestsnow]

Looking increasingly likely a regime change is underway.Lots going on so some input from Tamara/GP would be most welcome.Particularly telecommunications , not really commenting on the ecm day10 as I'm quite sure it will be different come the day.Just a watching brief for me, the only hope for coldies imo is if the blocking way to the north east can encourage some splitting of the jet stream to our West.. .

Edited December 14, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

 

[Iceberg]

36 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Hmm, not sure. Scotland and the north west of England will get some snow from it, but the surface temperatures for anything other than parts of Scotland mean the chances of it accumulating are slim. That's based on 2m min temperatures and snowfall totals from the ECM from behind a pay wall, so I can't post it, sorry.

 

 

Agree with this snow showers Dont normal give large accumulations away from nw coasts. 

However acccmulations maps won't show the type of fast moving showers. Temps are misleading this is why we get snow showers in April with surface temps of 7 or 8. 

[Seasonality]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Ok, things are about to get interesting. Caution as ever at such a range but genuinely surprised it wasn't a crazy outlier.

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Ok, things are about to get interesting. Caution as ever at such a range but genuinely surprised it wasn't a crazy outlier.

Let's see if the GEFS jump on it, then. It isn't that far into FI, so you would expect at least some of them to start showing it.

[nick sussex]

The GFS shows what can happen if the Atlantic comes back but there's nothing to divert the jet se. The ECM with that high pressure to the ne manages to cut the jet more nw/se.

Todays outputs have really strengthened a return of the Atlantic with the ECM ditching those low heights in the Med. Looks like the PV wins out after several days of a stalemate.

The ECM would be much welcomed by the ski resorts and many members in here who were bored to tears by the high. But it's whether that nw/se jet verifies that's the issue today.

[Geordiesnow]

Been keeping an eye on that deep cold pool over Western parts of Russia for a while now as I for one would hope it would not be removed by the ever strengthning Northern arm of the jet and there has been numerous runs suggesting it will get pushed out of the way however one thing I have noticed is that this is seems to be getting pushed back and if anything the air under the cold pool(or polar vortex if you like) is forecast to get even colder so despite a very strong Northern jet, it could very well hang on and the ECM shows an interesting set up where it could actually head westwards, first run I actually seen this suggested so quite a bit of skeptism this would be the case but things could turn more interesting if it does start to head westwards.

Its ashame though the Northern arm of the jet is really going to ramp up , the potential for a deep low for our shores is increasing now i feel but it will be interesting too see what developments we have to our North East by then. I will say one thing though, I for one hope the models don't shift that deep cold pool, I always felt aslong its there we always got a chance down the line and just perhaps the ECM is hinting at this.

[Frosty.]

It would be a blessing if it does turn more mobile with zonal conditions as the current sluggish slow moving pattern is just eating into winter and on a road to nowhere!

[tight isobar]

Id be looking for a similar evolution to the 00z ecm on gfs suites 6z/12z around similar frames and cast my eyes north west And...watching progression of waa Russia. 

AnD ultimately signs of block formation eastern seaboard usa/ Greenland. ..or there about. 

That ecm 240 screams potential for that evolution. 

Edited December 14, 2016 by tight isobar

[Summer Sun]

GFS, GEM and ECM

3 models at D10 - 3 different options

[mb018538]

I think we can safely discount the GEM option there! As nice as it looks compared to the others, it's clearly singing off the wrong sheet now.

[legritter]

Morning all ,The hunt is back on ,todays charts give us coldies some hope down the line .but another week of realy flatish weather then hopefully some action ,Are we all Converting to Zonal , the grass is greener etc etc ,but lets not get to carried away  yes we could get v cold zonal or just plain zonal .And worth keeping an eye on Developements to our east and n/east as well as this could manifest into several options over coming weeks .

Also dont expect big changes from met off update ,as they are looking at data charts etc that are not available to us weather fanatics , they i,m sure will ride with this zonal signal for a while untill it becomes much clearer ,STellas all round gang ,catch you all up later 

[booferking]

ECM has potential for height raises north west day 10 day i liken this could get more amplified run by run, but at the drop of a hat it could all change again next run.

And yes ECM day 10 is looking good for snow for some.

[radiohead]

I'll bank those -7 uppers for Christmas Eve on the ECM.

[Man With Beard]

Just now, mb018538 said:

I think we can safely discount the GEM option there! As nice as it looks compared to the others, it's clearly singing off the wrong sheet now.

I'm not sure what we can discount at the moment - just compared the ECM monthlies for week 2 and just 36 hours on it's already looking a complete bust for the area between Iceland and Scandi (the area most crucial for us, I'd argue), particularly if the ECM is right.

   

On the ECM monthly, the lowest anomalies stayed well west of Iceland. On the latest ECM/GFS chart, they are either over or even past Iceland.

I'm quite surprised as I've found on 7 occasions in the last 8 weeks, the ECM monthly has been fairly close for week 2, so I really was expecting it to verify. So now it's 7 in 9.

Not bad odds, but clearly there's a not unsubstantial risk of things going wrong even just 8 days into ECM monthly - and any other run, I suppose!!!