Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Pembroke Dangler]

Morning runs today poor for cold and longevity this afternoons and tonight's slowly moving more amplified again fence is definately a good place to sit for now. Let's see how the 18z models the Russian high as this is where my interest lies. 

[kumquat]

MIght as well mix the output up.

GFS 18z showing cold - 144 coming back into the fold that was showing a few days ago.

850 temps coming through

 

UKMO singing from same hymnsheet (144)

What we see as the holy grail coming in from the ECM out at T240 (ECM 144 on same page as above)

Everything to play for. Been here before but we have our fingers in all the model pies.

 

[radiohead]

18Z GFS, 12Z ECM at T192

18Z GFS reintroducing some cold air again at T204

Edited January 6, 2017 by radiohead

[Spah1]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Flow more Nly than the 12z op next Friday - which is an improvement re: getting the best CAA. Though at the mercy of secondary lows not being picked up or badly modelled at that range that may hamper CAA.

CAA? 

[Great Plum]

Just now, Spah1 said:

CAA? 

Cold air advection...

[Nick F]

Just now, Zakos said:

Quite a shift from the 18z GFS at 180.

The model output is definitely trending towards the removal of the Euro High.  At the very least we would be prone to further pm blasts if this occurs.

Difference 12z v 18z post t+192 with the ridge NE now on the 18z that was absent on 12z. Funny how GFS plays catch up with ECM 6 hrs later!

[stewfox]

21 minutes ago, radiohead said:

A rain to snow event as that low crosses on the 18Z GFS? Cold air gets in a bit quicker than the 12Z too.

Thats a 6c drop for my location on this update

GFS 18z 9pm 12/1

GFS 12z 9pm 12/1

 

Maybe first 4 am lamp post watch of the winter

 

 

Edited January 6, 2017 by stewfox
pic not relevant

[Zakos]

By 204, the 18z bears no resemblance whatsoever to the 12z over the atlantic.... highlights the model uncertainty.

Both runs have cold pooling and low heights over Europe - encourganing sings.

[Ice Day]

Definite swing back to cold on the ECM and now the 18z GFS.  At 204 and a northerly with very cold uppers across the country.  Looking positive

Edited January 6, 2017 by Ice Day

[radiohead]

Definitely heading in an ECM-like direction still...

                      GFS                                                   ECM

 

[Zakos]

Just now, Nick F said:

Difference 12z v 18z post t+192 with the ridge NE now on the 18z that was absent on 12z. Funny how GFS plays catch up with ECM 6 hrs later!

Ah you beat me to it!

Yes most definitely, GFS definitely playing catch up once again, ECM has definitely trumped the GFS this season!

[bradymk]

21 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

As long as I've been watching models, I was always of the opinion that ECM was prone to -NAO and -AO bias, and that the GFS was prone to +NAO and +AO bias beyond T120. When I started viewing here, I found most were of the same belief... Seems despite how far we've come in terms of NWP modeling, the same bias still exists. Used to be of opinion that UKMO was prone to -NAO and -AO bias too, but not to the extent as ECM. 

Can I ask where you got this verification chart from please?

I would agree. Over Amplification and a slight -NAO bias has always seemed to be a problem for it, but still the best model we have for medium range. Later on (day 9&10) its output is as volatile as any, especially recently. Let's hope tonight's day 10 is close to the mark

The chart is from Twitter, shared by chief met of Weather Co Energy, same company as MJ Ventrice works for. They have some very good data but it's only what they share on Twitter. 

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Do you have similar for GFS op in the opposite direction? 

Nope unfortunately not BA, the chart is from Twitter. Would be interesting to compare, although we could probably create our own graph for the GFS and we probably wouldn't be far off. I imagine a clear bias to +NAO later on but to be fair it has improved since higher resolution has gone out to +240. 

[Chris K]

1 minute ago, Zakos said:

Ah you beat me to it!

Yes most definitely, GFS definitely playing catch up once again, ECM has definitely trumped the GFS this season!

Although, with my pessimistic hat on, perhaps we need to wait and see over the coming days, because they could easily both start to flatten the pattern back again at that range?

Fingers crossed that they don't though...hah

[Ice Day]

Easterly is tantalisingly close at 228. 

[Zakos]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Difference 12z v 18z post t+192 with the ridge NE now on the 18z that was absent on 12z. Funny how GFS plays catch up with ECM 6 hrs later!

Actually, I was wrong, its not model uncertainty, it appears the GFS is most definitely playing catch up once again, startlingly similar pattern with the ECM now.

If it verifies, ECM has embarrassed the GFS once again. really starting to loose faith in the GFS beyond 144 hours now, too inclined to "default" to climatology

 

 

[radiohead]

-8 uppers back into the SE at T234. Mostly dry but quite cold. Ice days up north.

[Ali1977]

GFS having a very good go at following the ECM, rare we've had good agreement at 240 this season so that's a good sign. Cold next weekend looking more and more likely with the Northerly, looking beyond there comes with risks though. 

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, Zakos said:

Ah you beat me to it!

Yes most definitely, GFS definitely playing catch up once again, ECM has definitely trumped the GFS this season!

Hopefully a new trend started by ECM and not back to zonal in the morning on all models! Don't think I can cope with the ups and downs much longer!

But 18z GFS op almost a carbon copy of 12z EC op.

[bluearmy]

Amazing long wave pattern match between the ECM 12z and GFS 18z re the ridging

 

[Seasonality]

GFS 240h and ECM 240h. Hmmm...

[Zakos]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Hopefully a new trend started by ECM and not back to zonal in the morning on all models! Don't think I can cope with the ups and downs much longer!

But 18z GFS op almost a carbon copy of 12z EC op.

Hopefully not!!

In my opinion, best chance of the season for a noteable cold spell. We are starting to see promising charts within 168 hour range now.

Hopefully by this time tommorow things we be more clear!

if the euro high returns once again, Im taking a break from model watching until next winter, just about had it with the teasing from the models!

 

 

Edited January 6, 2017 by Zakos

[kumquat]

Follow suit or Trump it

 

[Ali1977]

Awesome GFS, please look the same tomorrow 

[Ice Day]

 

4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

That is a rarity in any winter, not just this one.  Really good signs tonight with plenty of interest in the here and now and even more beyond!

OK we are now into lala land, but what a chart at 300hrs

Edited January 6, 2017 by Ice Day

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Follow suit or Trump it

 

Uh oh 

thats an unbelievable resemblance. Be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles,even though it's s long way out. Can't be ignored.

Edited January 6, 2017 by karlos1983